Mauritania - 2024 Election - President
Mauritania is an Islamic Republic with a president as head of state and a constitution grounded in French civil law and sharia. The National Assembly exercises legislative functions but was weak relative to the executive. Voters elect the president, deputies to the National Assembly, municipal mayors, and regional councilors.
Voters elected former Minister of Defense Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani as president with 52 percent of the vote in the 2019 presidential election. Observers from the United Nations and African Union judged the election to be relatively free and fair. The elections represented the first transition of power from one democratically elected leader to another since the country’s independence in 1960.
The government took some steps to address the ethnic disparity in political leadership. Under the previous regime, the Beydane elite (“White Moor” Arabs) accounted for at most 30 percent of the population but occupied approximately 80 percent of government leadership positions; Haratines constituted at least 45 percent of the population but held fewer than 10 percent of the positions; and the various sub-Saharan ethnic groups (Halpulaar, Soninke, and Wolof) constituted an estimated 25 percent of the population and accounted for fewer than 10 percent of leadership positions. Of the 28 ministers in the sitting cabinet in 2022, three come from a Haratine ethnic background, and six come from a sub-Saharan ethnic background. Unlike in previous governments, the existing cabinet was largely made up of technocrats.
Mauritania headed 30 June 2024 toward a resolution for the candidate (the current president) Mohamed Ould Sheikh Al-Ghazouani for a second presidential term, and with a lower percentage than his supporters expected, and more than his competitors had hoped, as results indicators indicate that he will be awarded about 55% of the voters’ votes, after more than 92 votes were counted. % of votes expressed.
Although the results received were not surprising, President Ghazouani (67 years old) was granted a second and final mission, after an election campaign that was the least noisy according to Mauritanians, and in which President Ghazouani’s speech was the most calming, while his opponents focused on criticizing corruption, poor management, deteriorating services, high unemployment, and immigration.
A new term has also entered the electoral political discourse, which is the application of Islamic Sharia, a term pledged and called for by the candidate of the National Rally for Reform and Development (Tawasul) party with an Islamic background, Hammadi Ould Sidi Al-Mukhtar, who is also the leader of the opposition in Mauritania. Although the sorting process has not yet been completed, most observers expect the final results to be based on the current ranking of candidates and at approximately the same percentages, especially with the sorting rate approaching 95%.
The average participation rate is closer to weak, and this is the weakness that various politicians complained about, especially in the first hours of voting, before the indicator rose slightly in the afternoon of polling day, bringing the participation rate to about 55%, according to what the Independent Election Commission published on its website.
Ould Ghazouani came first in all the country's states (provinces) (15 states, in addition to the external district), with the exception of two states: Dakhlet Nouadhibou and Nouakchott South, in which his competitor who came in second place, Biram Dah Abeid (59 years old), came first.
Ethnic voting: The election results announced so far have shown that the elections were closer - according to some readings and at least in part of their results - to a referendum on ethnic grounds. They also showed a level of societal-political alliance between the Haratin (former slaves) segment, from which two prominent politicians ran: the head of the IRA movement, Biram Dah Abeid , and the lawyer Al-Aid Ould Mohameden, and political forces with great influence among the blacks, such as the Coexistence Alliance.
Although the candidate Eid has received a percentage ranging between 3-4% so far, the nature of his national speech has gathered around him a limited elite of Mauritanian youth from different ethnicities, but he has failed to penetrate the voting blocs affiliated with the Haratin and Negro segment, while the candidate Biram Dah raised the vote. Abid, his percentage is large in areas with a majority of Negroes or Haratines, as well as in working cities where members of his nationality are spread in simple professions.
The following results show some indications of voting along ethnic lines:
- The head of the IRA movement, Biram Ould Abeid, received about 32% of the voters’ votes in the state of Gurgel, compared to 49% for the power candidate, Mohamed Ould Cheikh Al-Ghazouani, while the head of the Tawasul Party, the candidate Tawasul, received less than 5%. As for the ethnically divided state of Brakna, Biram won 19%, compared to 56% for President Ghazouani, and about 9% for Ould Sidi Mokhtar.
- In the coastal city of Nouadhibou, where the majority of workers are from the Haratine and Negro segments, Biram maintained his lead in the 2024 presidential elections, obtaining 41% of the voters’ votes, compared to 35% for President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani, and 13% for Ould Sidi Mokhtar.
- In the beach city of Rosso on the bank of the Senegal River, the difference between President Ghazouani and his competitor Biram was only 800 votes (at least so far), as Ghazouani got about 9,000 votes, while Biram got about 8,200 votes.
- As for the capital, the majority candidate, Mohamed Ould Sheikh Al-Ghazouani, in Western Nouakchott, which includes a province with a black majority, namely the Sebkha province, in addition to the two richest provinces in the country, obtained about 38%, a result close to that obtained by Biram Abid, which is 35%, while Ould Sidi Mokhtar got about 13%.
- In the southern Nouakchott region, which also includes the Riyadh and Mina districts, inhabited by a majority of Haratin and Negroes, Ould Abeid won 40%, compared to about 34% for candidate Ghazouani, while the candidate of the Tawassoul Party, Faqih Hamadi Ould Sidi Al-Mukhtar, came in third place with 15% of the voters’ votes.
- As for a number of large states with a majority of (white) Arab nationalism, the two candidates, Mohamed Ould Sheikh Al-Ghazouani and Hamadi Ben Sidi Al-Mukhtar, were in the first and second ranks, with a large discrepancy between their results.
- The Hodh El Chargui region gave President Ghazouani 78% of the votes cast, while Hamadi received 10% and Biram Ould Abeid came in third with 6%. The same thing happened with the Hodh El Chargui region, where Ghazouani came in first place with 71% of the votes of the citizens, while Hamadi came in second place with 17%, and Biram’s percentage dropped to only 7%.
- In the gang's mandate, the indicators are slightly reversed, as Biram rises to second place with 16%, and Hammadi drops to third place with 12% of voters' votes, while Ghazouani maintains the lead with 65%, including the votes of his city "Boumdid", which gave him a success rate of 92 votes. % of its voters.
- The same thing is repeated with the state of Adrar in northern Mauritania, where Ghazouani’s vote rises to 75%, while Biram Ould Abeid’s votes fall to 7.51%, raising Hammadi to second place with 12%.
These indicators show - according to observers - the strength and influence of sectarian discourse, and its concentration primarily in major cities.
The results - which were not yet final - also show that the political discourse adopted by President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani over the past five years, to approach the victims of historical injustices that express themselves in color among the descendants of former slaves, as well as blacks, did not strongly reflect in his favor at the ballot boxes to the extent that his supporters expected and aspired to, nor did the development programs implemented by the "Taazur Agency", the social arm of the Mauritanian state, help him turn the balance of voting in areas of ethnic distinction, according to observers.
Political differentiation between Islamic forces: The elections showed that all forces affiliated with Sufi orders lined up behind President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani, as he achieved a high success rate in the offices affiliated with the major Sufi families in villages and regions such as Namjat, Nabaghia, Boutilimit, Nema, Maktaa Lahjar and others.
On the other hand, the speech on implementing Sharia did not give the candidate of the Tawasul Party, Hammadi Ould Sidi Al-Mukhtar, a significant and noticeable lead in various parts of the country. He came in third place, in which he had no competitor, as the difference was large with the candidate who came in the next ranking, which is lawyer Al-Eid Ould Mohamedan.
Initially, no candidate announced his acceptance or rejection of the election results, with the exception of candidate Biram Ould Abeid, perhaps because it is still early, and the results have not been announced definitively yet, and it is expected in the coming hours that Ould Ghazouani’s rival candidates will announce their positions on the acceptable election results - Which is expected - or rejection, which is unlikely.
Only candidate Biram announced his rejection of the results and threatened to take to the streets, calling on the army not to protect what he described as the corrupt regime, as he put it, and stressed that “the army, security, and guards” are not slaves of the regime, and that the people will win even if the army shoots them in order to protect the spoilers.
In light of Biram's position rejecting the results, no one yet knows where the ship of political appeasement will head, which was the most important political gain that the regime of Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani was betting on. Some fear that if one of the candidates continues to reject the elections, the appeasement will be blown away by the winds of the less noisy elections, which are more expressive of ethnic distinction in Mauritania.
Ould Cheikh Al-Ghazouani enters his second term, with a speech that is uncharacteristic of the ruling majority in Mauritania, as the man confirms that his priorities in the next phase are focused on fighting corruption. The man has repeatedly said that there will be no place in his regime for anyone who touches public money. Fulfilling this promise is considered a structural difficulty in Mauritania, which ranks last in the world in the fight against corruption, ranking 130th out of 180 countries. There is widespread talk of entrenched corruption and weak oversight measures. Such a decision would put President Ghazouani in confrontation with a number of his top supporters accused by the opposition of corruption, and would entrench a deeply entrenched administrative system of favoritism.
Observers doubt the ability of Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani to fulfill his promise, as the Minister of Finance and former State Inspector, Sidi Ould Ahmed Day, said in press statements published a few days ago that Ould Cheikh Ghazouani’s talk about fighting corruption is illogical, wondering where Ould Cheikh Ghazouani was during the period. The past years, and how he will fight corruption, as he chooses to his side figures accused of corruption and failure.
In the same context, the Mauritanian government had previously approved a strategy to combat corruption for the period 2023-2030, in order to contain the specter of corruption that is eroding the economy and the Mauritanian people’s confidence in their systems.
Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani promises a special presidential mandate for youth of all categories and orientations. This measure comes after the wave of Mauritanian youth migration to the United States of America worsened, with the number of migrants exceeding nearly 40,000 people according to Mauritanian media, and the pace of migration is still accelerating significantly. To implement the new youth strategy, Ould Ghazouani pledged to establish an empowerment agency targeting youth, who represent more than two-thirds of the population.
Although Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani did not mention in his speeches the challenge of managing gas wealth, he will begin exporting during the first months of his term, this wealth will be the basis for implementing the promises of the man who is entering his seventh decade and his second and final term, and who promises Mauritanians an agricultural revolution in a country that still imports most of its food from abroad.
In addition to these prospects, Ould Sheikh Al-Ghazouani did not hide other challenges that he pledged to confront, as he was obsessed with security and imposing state control, within messages directed abroad, in which the most calm president in the country’s history was represented by the words of the ancient Arab poet: I have a horse for the dream, for the dream is bridled... and I have a bridle. A horse of ignorance saddled with ignorance.
Between dream and ignorance in their political contexts, Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani is preparing for a new mission, after having experienced the administration and political parties for 5 years, to manage a political scene based on the collapse of traditional parties, the rise of youth power, and the escalation of racist discourse.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
