Guinea-Bissau - Politics
The political system in Guinea-Bissau collapsed. Drug cartels have had a firm grip on the West African country since at least 2005. Guinea-Bissau's numerous islands, which were virtually uncontrolled by the state, were used as a station to bring in cocaine from South America en route to Europe. The small nation is used to its government being dismissed, military coups disrupting democratic processes and its parliament being summarily dissolved. Guinea-Bissau has had 22 prime ministers and three military coups since 1994 — in addition to the year-long civil war from 1998 to 1999. Guinea-Bissau doesn't seem to be able to emerge from an almost chronic sense of political instability.
When Guinea-Bissau declared independence in 1973, there were high expectations of development and prosperity. "[The new Guinea-Bissau] was a popular state, conquered by the sacrifice of the people during eleven years of the national liberation struggle, it was a state that at the international level was a pride of Africa, which gave credibility to Africa and to revolutionaries around the world, with high esteem.
But that dream has soured amid the West African country's political instability. The government fulfilled the minimum program, which was the mission of honor of liberation of the fatherland, independence, a national anthem and national symbols. But as for development, it is zero, due to bad governance and high levels of corruption among political leaders.
No elected Bissau-Guinean head of state had finished a five-year term until former president Jose Mario Vaz saw out his full tenure in June 2019. Guinea-Bissau suffered four military coups since independence, most recently in 2012. An attempt to overthrow President Umaro Sissoco Embalo took place in February 2022. The only reason it didn't succeed was the fact that it wasn't planned well. It was ragtag in nature, and they didn't get the buy in of all of the military. It wasn't well planned at all. So it didn't succeed.
Guinea-Bissau had been in the throes of a power struggle since August 2015, when Guinea-Bissau's President Jose Mario Vaz sacked prime minister Domingos Simoes Pereira, leader of the ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Two factions of the ruling PAIGC failed to resolve their differences over Pereira's successor, Baciro Dja, since he was given the job in June 2016, with some lawmakers refusing to work with him.
Luís de Almeida Cabral was first elected President of the Council of State by the Constituent Assembly on 24 September 1973 when the PAIGC unilaterally declared independence from Portugal. The nation’s independence was formally recognized in 1974. He was re-elected President by the National People’s Assembly on 13 March 1977. Following the overthrow of the Cabral regime in 1980 and a four-year period of military rule, the National People’s Assembly elected João Bernardo Vieira President on 16 May 1984. He was re-elected on 19 June 1989.
Guinea-Bissau has been plagued by military coups and instability since its independence from Portugal in 1974. Guinea Bissau witnessed nine coups or attempted coups from 1980 to 2015. The ongoing political crisis could have negative impacts on the security situation in the country and could breed the way for drug trafficking and international crime. Guinea-Bissau’s porous borders remain vulnerable to threats, including terrorism and trafficking. Drug traffickers might profit from the power vacuum.
Guinea-Bissau began its transformation into a narco-state in 2005, when longtime president Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira — who had ruled the country with an iron fist from 1980 to 1999 — was reelected after returning from six years of exile in Portugal. Vieira allowed the Colombian drug mafia to seize the country. Guinea-Bissau's numerous islands, which were virtually uncontrolled by the state, were used as a station to bring in cocaine from South America en route to Europe. The drug lords had nothing to fear from Vieira. But, soon, Vieira came into conflict with rivals in his own military. In March 2009, he was assassinated by his own soldiers.
In April 2012, a military coup disrupted the presidential election as it headed to a run-off. Several logistical problems and delays caused the elections to be repeatedly postponed, having initially been scheduled for 24 November 2013 and then 16 March 2014. Turnout in Guinea-Bissau's watershed presidential and parliamentary polls was just under 90%, the election commission announced on 24 April 2014, a record for the impoverished West African nation. The country went to the polls on 13 April 2014 for the first time since a military coup, in a vote aimed to turn the page on decades of political instability and military violence.
One of the biggest points of contention is the fact that all the leaders of the country's major political parties are still the same people who have been at the helm of the state for decades. Parties like PAIGC, MADEM-G15, and PRS all equate absolute majority governments with the only guarantee for governing stability. However, since the advent of the first multiparty elections in 1994, Guinea-Bissau has already had three such absolute majorities in parliament — that did see some instability.
After the first absolute majority in 1994, in which the former libaration movement PAIGC won 62 seats, the country stumbled into civil war. The second absolute majority, in which the PAIGC obtained 67 seats in 2008, culminated in a coup d'état in 2012 which saw Carlos Gomes Junior removed from governance. In the third absolute majority government, the PAIGC, led by Domingos Simoes Pereira, dropped from 67 to 57 seats in parliament in 2014, after a number of dissidents left the party in a dispute. This last event led to the expulsion of 15 PAIGC deputies, who formed their own party, the "MADEM-G15."
Any breakthrough in the institutional crisis gripping Guinea-Bissau would be short-lived if the structural causes of instability were not addressed, the senior United Nations official in the West African country told the Security Council 14 February 2017, urging national actors to implement the Conakry Agreement signed in 2016 to surmount the political impasse. Modibo Touré, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) called for a more sustained and well-coordinated approach going forward. National authorities must focus on reviewing the Constitution and revising both the electoral law and those governing political parties in preparation for the 2018 legislative elections.
Further, he called on Guinea-Bissau’s international partners to press for implementation of the six-point road map brokered by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the subsequent Conakry Agreement. In the absence of a fully functioning Government, it was essential that the United Nations and international financial institutions coordinate efforts towards mitigating risks and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, including through business-for-peace initiatives.
The last national presidential election took place in November 2019. The top two finishers from the first round, Domingos Simoes Pereira and Umaro Sissoco Embalo, met in a runoff election in December 2019. The National Election Commission declared Sissoco the winner. International observers characterized the election as free, fair, and transparent. The opposition PAIGC party appealed, disputing the fairness and accuracy of the results. An institutional stalemate ensued, as the Supreme Court of Justice did not ratify the electoral results despite the National Election Commission declaring Sissoco the winner. Sissoco assumed the presidency in 2020 after an unofficial inauguration and transfer of power from the previous president, Jose Mario Vaz. Later in 2020 the Supreme Court of Justice dismissed the opposition’s appeal disputing the election results.
Guinea-Bissau is considered an important hub for drug trafficking — especially for cocaine. Since achieving independence from Portugal in 1974, the West African country has experienced nine coups and attempted coups, as well as several political assassinations. Some of these have actually been attributed to drug cartels, which have had a firm grip on the country since 2005. Members of the military and civilian administration reportedly trafficked in drugs and assisted international drug cartels by providing access to the country and its transportation infrastructure.
According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Guinea-Bissau is now one of the most important gateways for cocaine coming from South America to Europe. "Organized crime will do whatever it wants in Guinea-Bissau," Calvario Ahukharie, the former head of Interpol in Guinea-Bissau, told DW. He said the fight against the cartels was practically impossible to win, as many capos are rumored to be in cahoots with military officials and politicians. "The drug lords from South America go in and out of our country whenever and however they please," Ahukharie said. "They subjugate the politicians. They are the real rulers in our country."
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