The French White Paper on defence and national security
NEW SECURITY PARAMETERS
The following have to be factored into our strategy
- The growing interconnection between threats and risks : This is a direct consequence of globalisation which removes barriers between conflicts and risks, much as it does in benign or positive fields such as trade or communication. For instance, terrorist groups which used to act in a segmented manner prepare operations in several points of the globe, conducting cross-border ideological warfare and attempting to interconnect crises with distinct local or regional roots.
In many areas, there is a real risk of contagion of war, in the Middle-East, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as in parts of central and eastern Africa and around Sudan. These risks must be dealt with first of all by actions aiming at preventing the appearance or spread of armed conflict. Nonetheless, with the growing speed of the exchange of information, images and ideas - as we have seen in recent years in the religious field – flare-ups can occur, creating a particularly unstable environment prone to sudden burst of violence. Future tensions involving energy, food and water as well as strategic raw materials, can lead directly to major crises in one or several parts of the world. The same applies to the long-term effects of global warming, if preventive action is not taken in good time. These risks of interconnection and the cascading of crises call for large-scale responses, integrating economic, social, environmental and security policies
- The continuity between domestic and foreign security
The traditional distinction between domestic and foreign security has lost its relevance. Terrorism in Europe is staged both from the outside and through the infiltration of our societies. Large-scale criminal networks take advantage of borderless globalisation. Energy security cannot be envisaged outside of a global perspective. Information systems are vulnerable without consideration of borders. The same applies to natural or health risks.
This continuity has taken on strategic significance, of which France and Europe have to draw the full implications.
Comprehensive strategies, integrating the different dimensions of security are required.
- The possibility of sudden strategic upsets
International uncertainty and instability give plausibility to scenarios of strategic upsets and surprises, differing from those risks for which our defence and security systems have been geared to previously. Apart from terrorism, we find at the heart of these scenarios developments such as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, cyber-warfare, the emergence of new weapons as a result of technological breakthroughs. The risk of an attack breaking the “nuclear taboo” can not be ruled out. Many potential major regional contingencies have the potential to degenerate into a world-wide strategic upset. The offensive use of outer-space, applications flowing from nanotechnology, bio-technology, massive strides forward in computer technology, new sources of vulnerability of space-based assets, come to mind as well. But other “black swan” events may well arise, with substantial and unexpected strategic consequences.
- Developments impacting military operations.
Military operations of the future will increasingly be conducted for and within the population, generally in an urban environment. A more worrying trend is that current “peace operations” are increasingly lethal, which puts a premium on force protection. Superior technology does not, per se, guarantee operational superiority. The human factor will remain prevalent in complex international operations where all instruments of power and influence are brought to bear.
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