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Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq


June 2008
Report to Congress
In accordance with the
Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2008
(Section 9010, Public Law 109-289)

 


Footnotes

1 This report also meets all requirements of Section 609 of Public Law 110-161.

2 The data cutoff date for this report is May 31, 2008.

3 The Executive Council is comprised of the Prime Minister, the President and two Vice Presidents.

4 Those ineligible for amnesty under this law include those already sentenced to death and those accused of terrorist acts that resulted in death or disability, pre-meditated murder, manslaughter, kidnapping, stealing, aggravating circumstances, embezzlement, rape, sodomy, incest, counterfeiting, drug crimes, smuggling antiquities or several other offenses under the Military Penal Code.

5 Provincial governments received their 2006 budget allocations late in the fiscal year, and much of their 2007 budgetary expenditure involved use of these 2006 funds. The central government transferred 100% of the $1.56 billion capital budget to the KRG. The KRG does not provide any budgetary performance feedback to the central government. Therefore, it is not possible to determine KRG progress with any accuracy or authority. The MoF considers any funds transferred to the KRG to be fully expensed even though the true rate is unknown.

6 Inma translates as "growth" in Arabic.

7 Operation Saulat al-Fursan translates as Operation "Charge of the Knights" in Arabic.

8 Sahawa al Iraq translates as "Awakening of Iraq" in Arabic.

9 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in your neighborhood?" Nationwide, 63% said "Calm," 11% said "Violent," and 24% said "Sometimes calm and sometimes violent." Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

10 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in your province?" Nationwide, 42% said "Calm," 22% said "Violent," and 34% said "Sometimes calm and sometimes violent." Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

11 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in the country?" Nationwide, 15% said "Calm," 47% said "Violent," and 36% said "Sometimes calm and sometimes violent." Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

12 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in your neighborhood?" Maysan governorate, 97.9% said "Calm" versus "How would you describe the security situation today in the country?" Maysan governorate, 1.5% said "Calm." Sample size: ~300. Margin of error: ~5%.

13 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in your neighborhood?" Dahuk governorate, 99% said "Calm" versus "How would you describe the security situation today in the country?" Dahuk governorate, 0% said "Calm." Sample size: ~200. Margin of error: ~5%.

14 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "Do you agree with the following statements? I feel safe and secure in my neighborhood and I feel safe traveling outside my neighborhood." Nationwide, 73% of respondents agree that they feel safe inside their neighborhoods and 37% feel safe traveling outside their neighborhoods. Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

15 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "When you see the Iraqi Army in your neighborhood do you feel:" Nationwide, 63% of Iraqis said "Secure," 15% said "Less secure," and 19% said "Neither more nor less secure." Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

16 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "When you see the Iraqi Police in your neighborhood do you feel:" Nationwide, 50% of Iraqis said "Secure," 21% said "Less secure," and 26% said "Neither more nor less secure." Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

17 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How effective is the Iraqi Government in each of the following areas? - Maintaining Security." Nationwide, 33% of respondents said "Effective," 44% said "Ineffective," and 21% said "Neither effective nor ineffective." Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

18 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How would you rate the level of peace and stability in Iraq today?" Nationwide, 26% of Iraqis rate the country as "Stable," 45% rate the country as "Unstable," 27% "Neither stable nor unstable." Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

19 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "Do you think the Iraqi Army is winning or losing the battle against terrorists?" Nationwide, 58% of Iraqis said "Winning" and 19% said "Losing," 23% said "Unsure." Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

20 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "Do you think the Iraqi Police is winning or losing the battle against crime?" Nationwide, 49% of Iraqis said "Winning" and 28% said "Losing," 23% said "Unsure." Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

21 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "Do you have confidence in the following groups to improve the overall security situation in Iraq? Nationwide, 79% of Iraqis had confidence in the Iraqi Army, 75% in the Iraqi Police, 66% in Provincial Governments, 61% in Local Governments, 57% in the National Government, 26% in the MNF, 21% in Armed Groups and 19% in Militias. Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

22 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How much confidence do you have in the following to improve the overall security situation in Iraq?" Iraqi national government-57% "confident," Provincial government-66% "confident," Local government-61% "confident." Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~1%, <10% provincial.

23 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How much confidence do you have in the following to improve the overall security situation in Iraq?" Multi-national forces-26% "confident," Armed groups-21% "confident," Militia-19% "confident." Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~1%, <10% provincial.

24 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "Who is most responsible for providing security in your neighborhood?" Nationwide, 35% of Iraqis said the Iraqi Army, 34% said the Iraqi Police, 5% said people from their tribe, 8% said Sons of Iraq, 4% said neighbors, 3% said religious leaders, 3% said MNF, and 4% said Militias. Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

25 Nationwide poll, April 2008: "How much confidence do you have in the following to protect you and your family against threats?" Nationwide, 76% of Iraqis had confidence in the Iraqi Army, 73% the Iraqi Police, 65% their provincial government, 61% their local government, 56% the National government, 25% the MNF, 20% Armed Groups, and 20% Militias. Sample size: ~8500. Margin of error: ~ 1%, <10% provincial.

26 Four separate analyses informed these Iraqi force end-strength estimates. The first was the May 2007 MNSTC-I In-stride Assessment of the Iraqi force growth in required in 2008 to protect the population, overmatch the enemy, provide the depth necessary to deploy forces across the country, and implement an annual retraining and reconstitution program. The second was Iraqi military Service plans focused on the 2010-2015 period, and MoI Plan that addressed near-term police force growth. The third was an MNC-I assessment of the Iraqi Army's required enduring posture by 2010. The fourth was a MNSTC-I directed, MNF-I sponsored Iraqi force analysis conducted by the Center for Army Analysis. The primary objective of this assessment was to determine if the projected, near-term (2010) Iraqi forces were capable of overmatching the anticipated threat. The assessment concluded that the ISF was incapable of overmatching the threat and recommended additional force structure growth and specific capabilities.

27 MoI employees not included in Iraqi Security Force numbers include 15,988 Civil Defense Forces, 19,108 Facility Protection Service, and 33,713 headquarters and administrative personnel, for a total of 68,809 other MoI employees.

28 The following are the Location Commands, followed by the province in which they are located. The eight existing Location Commands are: Taji (Baghdad), Kirkush (Diyala), Al Kasik (Ninewa), Habbaniyah (Anbar), Numaniyah (Wassit), Rustamiyah (Baghdad), K1 (Kirkuk) and Ur (Nassariyah). The five new location commands are Ghizlanee (Ninewa), Tikrit (Salah ad Din), Al Asad (Anbar), Al Memona (Maysan) and Al Shaiba (Basrah).

29 The seventeen existing training locations are: Al Kut, Baghdad Police College, Basrah Training Center, Dahuk, Diwanniyah, Camp Dublin, Habbanniyah, Hillah, Irbil, Kirkuk, Mosul, Najaf, Numaniyah, Salah ad Din, Solidarity, Sulaymaniyah and Lulaymaniyah Officer College.

30 The 11 new projects are: Baghdad Police College-North ([in Mosul], Nov 08); Baghdad Police College - South ([in Basrah] Oct 08); Baghdad Basic Recruit Training Center-East (Mar 09); Diwaniyah Police Training Center (PTC) (Nov 08); Diyala Basic Recruit Training Center (BRTC) (Nov 08); Maysan BRTC (Jan 09); Kirkuk BRTC (Jan 09); Karbala BRTC (Feb 09); Dhi Qar BRTC (Feb 09); Najaf PTC (Dec 08); Muthanna BRTC (Dec 08); and Irbil (Aug 08). The eight expansion or refurbishment projects are: Baghdad Police College (Phase I) (Complete); Baghdad Police College (Phase II) (Oct 08); Baghdad Police College (Phase III) (Jan 09); Mosul PTC (Nov 08); Tikrit PTC (Dec 08); Habbaniyah PTC (Nov 08); Solidarity National Police Training Center (Jun 08); Al Ferat (Dec 08). Since the last report, the MoI has identified an existing location to be renovated as a Basic Recruit Training Center, eliminating the need for one new facility.

31 PoEs considered closed are in the Kurdish area; they receive no support from DBE or Coalition forces. These are Kella, Saranban-Golle, Taiwella and Parweez Khan. Partially opened are Muntheria and Al Sheeb (fuel trucks only), as well as Ar Ar (religious holidays only).

32 This decrease in percentage since the last report is due to an increase in authorizations. The previous figures were calculated as of January 17,2008, using the latest payroll data available as of the end of month December 2007. The authorizations were 137,241 and assigned personnel totaled 153,871 (~113%). The latest numbers available are through the end of month February 2008, with authorizations of 154,231 and 165,437 assigned personnel (104%).



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