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Civil-Military Change in China: Elites, Institutes, and Ideas After the 16th Party Congress


Civil-Military Change in China: Elites, Institutes, and Ideas After the 16th Party Congress - Cover

Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Larry M. Wortzel.

September 2004

381 Pages

Brief Synopsis

In November 2002, the Chinese Communist Party held its 16th Congress and formally initiated a sweeping turnover of senior leaders in both the Party and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The meeting heralded not merely a new set of personalities in positions of political and military power, but also the emergence of a new generation of leaders. Who are these individuals, and what does their rise mean for the future of China and its military?

China matters to the United States because of its size, its spectacular patterns of growth, its profound problems linked to rapid growth, and its military intentions.

Facts and trends are examined to explain the divisions and cohesions in the Chinese leadership and their potential significance to the United States and the rest of the world.

Also examined is how Chinese policies have evolved over the years, and how important the United States has been in influencing China's strategy. What, for instance, will the emerging leadership with its factious differences do about Taiwan and North Korea?

Contents

Foreword
Ambassador James R. Lilley

1. Introduction
Andrew Scobell and Larry Wortzel

2. Party-Army Relations Since the 16th Party Congress: The Battle of the “Two Centers”?
James C. Mulvenon

3. Hu Jintao as China’s Emerging National Security Leader
Murray Scot Tanner

4. China’s Ruling Elite: The Politburo and Central Committee
Joseph Fewsmith

5. Premier Wen and Vice President Zeng: The “Two Centers” of China’s “Fourth Generation”
John Tkacik

6. The 16th Party Congress and Leadership Changes in the PLA
Maryanne Kivlehan-Wise, Dean Cheng, and Ken Gause

7. PLA Leadership in China’s Military Regions
Elizabeth Hague

8. Predicting PLA Leader Promotions
Kenneth W. Allen and John F. Corbett, Jr.

9. Agents of Influence: Assessing the Role of Chinese Foreign Policy Research Organizations after the 16th Party Congress
Evan Medeiros

10. Demystifying Sha Shou Jian: China’s “Assassin’s Mace” Concept
Jason Bruzdzinski

11. The Future of PLA Modernization: Bumps and Boosters
Ellis Joffe

12. About the Contributors


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