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South Asia in 2020: Future Strategic Balances and Alliances


Edited by Dr. Michael R. Chambers.

November 2002

489 Pages

Brief Synopsis

This volume consists of revised versions of papers presented at conference sponsored by the Asia/Pacific Research Center and the Center for International Security and Cooperation of Stanford University, and the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute on January 4-5, 2002. While there are numerous ways to approach the question of "whither South Asia?" the conference organizers decided to focus on the future of strategic balances and alliances in the region, with 2020 as the target date. This choice of topic allowed the conference participants to talk not only about the patterns of amity and enmity within the region, but also about the role of extraregional powers and issues such as social and economic trends, domestic political conditions, strategic culture, and the role of nuclear weapons. These factors can affect the relative power of countries as well as their relations of friendship and hostility.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
Michael R. Chambers

I. SETTING THE SCENE
2. Policy Paths in South Asia: Intersections between Global and Local
Sir John Thomson

3. Thoughts on the Current Crisis Thomas W. Simons, Jr.

II. POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
4. A Changing India
Teresita C. Schaffer

5. South Asia in 2020: Economic Outlook
Vijay L. Kelkar

6. Demographic Forces in South Asia through 2050: Population, Economy, and Health
Shripad Tuljapurkar

III. NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND REGIONAL SECURITY
7. Bombs in Search of a Mission: India's Uncertain Nuclear Future
Rajesh M. Basrur and Stephen Philip Cohen

8. Pakistan's Nuclear Future
Brigadier Feroz Hassan Khan

9. The Perils of Proliferation in South Asia
Scott D. Sagan

IV. U.S. MILITARY PERSPECTIVES
10. U.S. Military Perspectives on Regional Security in South Asia
Compiled by Michael R. Chambers

V. STRATEGIC CULTURE
11. Indian Strategic Culture
Kanti Bajpai

12. Pakistan's Strategic Culture
Hasan-Askari Rizvi

13. 'Cult of Defense' and 'Great Power Dreams': The Influence Strategic Culture on China's Relationship with India
Andrew Scobell

VI. ALLIANCE POLITICS IN ASIA
14. India's Alliances 2020
Sumit Ganguly

15. The Future of the Sino-Pakistani Entente Cordiale
John W. Garver

16. The Struggle for Mastery in Asia
Aaron L. Friedberg

17. Conclusion: Strategic Balances and Alliances in South Asia in 2020
Michael R. Chambers

About the Contributors


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