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	Director, Operational Test & Evaluation
FY97 Annual Report

RQ-1A PREDATOR UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV)

	Air Force ACAT IIC Program 12 systems Total program cost (TY$) $604.9M Average unit cost (TY$) $61.9M Full-rate production 4QFY99 Prime Contractor General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

SYSTEM DESCRIPTION & CONTRIBUTION TO JOINT VISION 2010

The mission of the medium altitude unmanned aerial vehicle system is to provide both cued and non-cued reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeting capability. The system can operate autonomously, is attritable (air vehicle cost is less than $3.5M), and does not compromise sensitive technology should it be lost over enemy territory. The RQ-1A will help the in-theater CINC conduct precision engagement by helping to provide information superiority.

The Predator System is a medium altitude endurance unmanned aerial vehicle asset consisting of both air and ground segments; it is intended to provide the Theater or Joint Task Force Commander with continuous imagery coverage of small fixed or mobile targets. The system will be required to operate in less than ideal weather conditions, and it incorporates an wet-wing de-icing system to provide the capability to transit through moderate icing conditions.

The deployed air segment consists of four propeller-driven, full composite, air vehicles each with Electro-Optic, Infrared (EO/IR) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensor payloads. THE RQ-1A will fly at altitudes up to 25,000 feet MSL. Datalink systems between the air vehicle and the ground system include a C-band line-of-sight link with a throughput of 4.5 mbps and a Ku-band satellite datalink system with a throughput of 1.5 mbps.

The deployed ground segment consists of a shelter containing the Ground Control Station (GCS), powered by two 35 kW generators, and a Trojan Spirit II satellite communications system. The Trojan Spirit uses a 2.4 meter mobile antenna for imagery dissemination and a 5.5 meter antenna for Ku-band satellite communications with the air vehicle.

The Predator system was developed as an Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) program and for two years participated in various training exercises, demonstrations, and two operational deployments (one to Albania and one to Hungary) in support of NATO operations in Bosnia. At the end of the ACTD period, all Predator assets were transferred to the U.S. Air Force's 11th Reconnaissance Squadron, and the program was recently initiated as an ACAT II acquisition program with OSD DT and OT oversight.

The Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) validated the requirement for Predator on 12 February 1996 stating that the system had demonstrated sufficient military utility to warrant the requirement for procurement of additional systems; the JROC also identified a number of required system upgrades. These requirements were further refined in the Air Force's Operational Requirement Document (ORD). The first priority upgrades, a de-icing capability, an UHF/VHF radio link on the air vehicle, and improved IFF transponders, will be retrofitted prior to IOT&E and the full-rate production decision.

The Defense Acquisition Board (DAB) authorized a production rate verification of two systems in July 1997. The Acquisition Decision Memorandum emphasized the development of the baseline upgrades, especially the de-icing system. A total of twelve systems is planned, including the six procured during the ACTD and follow-on period.

Activities this year focused primarily on sustaining the assets deployed in Taszar, Hungary while developing, integrating and testing desired upgrades on the RDT&E system in CONUS. Some mission-level reliability and availability data were collected from the deployed system.

Selection of a de-icing technology for integration on the Predator air vehicle occurred this year. A weeping wing system consisting of glycol-secreting aerodynamic surfaces and a vibrating probe ice detector were installed on two Predator air vehicles. A more powerful engine, the turbo-charged Rotax 914, was necessary for flight performance with the de-ice system. Fuselage and wing sections were tested at the NASA Lewis icing tunnel, and flight tests were conducted in natural icing conditions near Duluth, Minnesota in the Spring and again in the Fall of this year.

Basic testing to characterize flight performance is on-going. Imagery quality and relief-on-station will also be demonstrated during these flight tests. Other baseline upgrades will be integrated and tested throughout the year. IOT&E is scheduled for 4QFY99

During the deployment to Hungary, Predator experienced low mission completion rates primarily because of weather but also due to system failures; however, effective-time-on-station (ETOS) is expected to improve with the operation of the de-ice system and with reliability growth. Because of the low mission completion rates, large percentage of tasked targets have gone unexploited and image quality was, in general, short of the system design goals. However, the imagery products were considered usable by the warfighter. In addition, a sensor upgrade effort is on-going in the developmental system.

A limited assessment of system reliability was conducted using mission-level operational data from the system deployed in Hungary. The data included missions from March 1996 through April 1997 and five a point estimate of about 32 (flight) hours Mean Time Between Mission Affecting Failure. Reliability growth studies indicate that there was considerable growth between March 1996 and July 1996, but that no growth or a slight worsening of reliability occurred after July 1996. AFOTEC has formed a Joint Reliability and Maintainability Evaluation Team (JRMET) and has begun a more rigorous data collection effort. The results of the JRMET will be documented in an Operational Assessment Report by AFOTEC in 2QFY98 and will support a follow-on production decision at that time.

Operational reliability data was used with a model developed by DOT&E to predict target area coverage as a function of various input parameters. The model highlighted several sensitivity factors that affected Predator's ability to maintain continuous coverage; these factors included distance to the target area, system reliability, number of air vehicles per system, maintenance structure, and spare parts stockege factors. This analysis resulted in modifications to the ORD that refined the reliability requirement thresholds and objectives, and a more realistic operational requirement, ETOS, was added as a threshold for the 24-hour continuous coverage requirement.

The only structured testing that took place this year was for the de-icing system. That system worked well in the conditions encountered during the tests and showed the potential to be operationally effective and suitable. Several problems that were noted during the first round of testing were corrected and re-tested in the second series of tests. The problems that were fixed included: a control module for the de-icing system that failed to operate at high altitudes and low pressures; heat was added for the pilot's window; a payload shield was added to allow free movement with ice build-up; and air intakes for the radiator and turbocharger were redesigned to prevent ice accumulation. System performance and handling characteristics were not noticeably affected by ice accumulation on unprotected areas (up to ten centimeters in some cases), or by operation of the de-ice system. The tests were conducted for the Program Office by the contractor. Operational evaluation of the system with Air Force pilots operating the system will take place at a later date. At this time, Air Force pilots are not rated to fly the Predator with the upgraded engine, required for the de-icing system.

The Predator was the first system to successfully transition from an ACTD to a formal acquisition program. There were many lessons learned that may help other ACTD programs. In particular, identification of the lead Service or early user involvement will help refine concepts of operation, system requirements, and sustainability and supportability issues can be defined early-on.

The use operational data coupled with the model developed by DOT&E proved to be a superb tool for helping to define achievable, measurable objectives for operational evaluation. This same model may be used to extrapolate data collected during DT/OT to determine the ETOS capability of the production representative Predator system.