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	Director, Operational Test & Evaluation
FY97 Annual Report

MINUTEMAN III INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE (ICBM)

	Air Force ACAT IC Program 500 missiles deployed GRP: 652 guidance units replaced GRP program cost (TY$) $1889M GRP unit cost (TY$) $2.9M GRP production 3QFY99 PRP: 607 boosters remanufactured PRP program cost (TY$) $2583M PRP unit cost (TY$) $4.3M PRP production 1QFY01 Prime Contractor Boeing

SYSTEM DESCRIPTION & CONTRIBUTION TO JOINT VISION 2010

Minuteman III is a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) deployed in hardened silos. Minuteman III and Peacekeeper together form one leg of the Strategic Triad that provides strategic nuclear deterrence for the United States. Operational basing support for Minuteman III includes missile alert facilities, hardened launch facilities (LF), and underground launch control centers (LCC). Each LCC controls 10 LFs and is manned by a two-person combat crew on 24-hour alert. Each unmanned LF, located several miles away from its LCC, contains one missile. Minuteman III bases are currently located at F.E. Warren AFB, Wyoming; Minot AFB and Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota; and Malmstrom AFB, Montana.

As Joint Vision 2010 looks to the future of America's armed forces, it considers "threads of continuity" with the contemporary strategic and operational environment. Maintaining the political freedom and national independence of the United States with its values, institutions, and territory intact, remains a fundamental goal. Accordingly, "America's strategic nuclear deterrent, along with appropriate national level detection and defensive capabilities, will likely remain at the core of American national security." As an important component of the Strategic Triad, Minuteman III contributes directly to precision engagement with its flexibility to retarget these weapons when required.

Peacekeeper is to be taken out of service when START II enters into force. At that time, 500 Minuteman III missiles will be all that remains of the U.S. land-based ICBM force. The Air Force has embarked on several life extension programs aimed at keeping Minuteman III viable well beyond the turn of the century. These programs include replacement of aging components of the guidance system, remanufacture of the solid-propellant rocket motors, replacement of standby power systems, repair of launch facilities, and installation of updated command, control, and communications equipment.

The Guidance Replacement Program (GRP) will retain the current Minuteman III inertial measurement unit. Other electronic components of the guidance system, including the guidance computer, signal converters, and power distribution components, will be replaced. GRP is expected to preserve current Minuteman III accuracy and reliability, while enhancing supportability. GRP is needed to prevent a projected decline in reliability due to aging of electronic components and unavailability of replacement parts.

The Propulsion Replacement Program (PRP) will replace the aging solid propellant in the three stages of the Minuteman III booster, while retaining the motor cases. During the initial phase of the program (Technology Insertion), changes will be made to the existing motor designs and processes to replace unavailable or environmentally unacceptable materials, components, and processes, and to correct known hardware problems. PRP is required to preserve current Minuteman III effectiveness and suitability characteristics.

AFOTEC has conducted an early OA in both replacement programs, and has collected information in a combined DT&E/OT&E setting The early OAs are primarily audits to see that documentation is complete and consistent, that design efforts are linked to operational requirements, that the system has good prospects of being ready for OT&E when scheduled, and that T&E resources are in place. The results of both early OAs were satisfactory.

IOT&E for the GRP will culminate in two Minuteman III test flights, in June and September 1998. Two test flights in support of PRP IOT&E are planned for November 1999 and February 2000.

GRP has an approved TEMP and Test Plan. The current TEMP for PRP, which was recently added to the DOT&E oversight list, is approved by the Air Force but OSD level test documentation has not been submitted by the Air Force.

The two important test issues in this program are accuracy and reliability of the system. Two test flights will be conducted for each of the GRP and PRP programs. With limited data samples available from end-to-end flight testing, both Minuteman III OT efforts will rely on hardware-in-the-loop simulation and combined DT/OT opportunities to a significant degree.

The GRP OT will use data generated by the Minuteman III Engineering Estimates Model to support evaluation of the Accuracy Key Parameter (KP). The same model will support the PRP OT effort to evaluate the Range KP. DOT&E will closely monitor AFOTEC's accreditation of this model for both programs.

Ground-based DT/OT will be important for the evaluation of these and other KPs: Reliability (countdown and flight), Reaction Time, and Availability. For GRP, the principal DT/OT sources are the Guidance and Control Laboratory at Hill AFB and the Pathfinder exercise at Vandenberg AFB. For PRP, the main DT/OT data sources are static firings of 28 Change Verification Motors (CVM) and 20 Qualification Motors (QM). Other significant DT/OT activities include the evaluations of GRP fault detection and fault isolation via SPO/contractor analysis, and the evaluation of GRP nuclear hardness and survivability via data generated in DT.

The supplementary M&S and DT/OT activities have good potential to increase the testers' understanding. Assessment of the overall risk of proceeding with these programs will depend, in part, on complex questions of data validity and the relevancy of the supplementary T&E activities to the operational environment. Time pressure will make this task more difficult still. In the case of GRP, both AFOTEC and DOT&E have expressed concern that the interval between the end of IOT&E and the Milestone III is very short (approximately 60 days).