14 January 2005
Report Predicts Terrorists Will Thrive, but in New Ways
Globalization may help terrorist groups expand their influence
By Merle D. Kellerhals, Jr.
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington -- Terrorist groups will continue to use conventional weapons and explosives in future attacks -- adding new creative destructive twists while adapting constantly to elude counterterrorist efforts, according to a newly released intelligence forecast.
"Terrorists probably will be most original not in the technologies or weapons they use, but rather in their operational concepts -- i.e., the scope, design, or support arrangements for attacks," the forecast, issued January 13 by the National Intelligence Council, says.
Strong interest in acquiring chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons increases the risk of a major terrorist attack involving these kinds of weapons, the council's report says.
"Our greatest concern is that terrorists might acquire biological agents or, less likely, a nuclear device, either of which could cause mass casualties. Bioterrorism appears particularly suited to the smaller, better-informed groups," the report says.
Terrorists can be expected to continue to conduct cyber attacks designed to disrupt critical information networks like computer systems and communications systems, and -- even more likely -- cause physical damage to information systems, it says.
The report -- "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project" -- is the third unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council, which is the think tank of the U.S. Intelligence Community. The report takes a 15-year look into the future, identifying fresh global trends that might develop to influence world events.
The key elements that have spawned international terrorism today show no signs of abating over the next 15 years, it says, and it is likely that terrorists will enlist the benefits of globalization to further those objectives.
"Facilitated by global communications, the revival of Muslim identity will create a framework for the spread of radical Islamic ideology inside and outside the Middle East, including Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Western Europe, where religious identity has traditionally been strong," the report says.
The council found that this revival has been accompanied by a deepening solidarity among Muslims who have been caught up in national or regional separatist struggles, such as in Palestine, Chechnya, Iraq, Kashmir, Mindanao in the Philippines, and southern Thailand.
"Informal networks of charitable foundations, madrassas [religious schools], hawalas [informal banking systems], and other mechanisms will continue to proliferate and be exploited by radical elements," the report says. And alienation among unemployed youths will swell the ranks of those vulnerable to terrorist recruitment.
Gradually, the council expects, the international terrorist group al-Qaida will be replaced by similarly inspired Islamic extremist groups. And it is likely that these groups will merge with local separatist movements.
"Information technology, allowing for instant connectivity, communication, and learning, will enable the terrorist threat to become increasingly decentralized, evolving into an eclectic array of groups, cells, and individuals that do not need a stationary headquarters to plan and carry out operations," the report says.
The global Internet will provide a ready resource for training materials, targeting guidance, weapons know-how and fund raising for terrorists and their loosely knit structures, it says.
Other major points in the 2020 Project forecast:
-- The United States will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across the broad range of issues -- economic, technological, political and military -- that no other state will match by 2020.
-- The possession of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons by other nations increases the potential costs of any future military action by the United States.
-- A counterterrorism strategy that approaches the problem on multiple fronts offers the greatest chance of containing and ultimately reducing the terrorist threat.
-- The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as major global players will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.
-- The council sees globalization -- which it defines as a growing interconnectedness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world -- as an overarching "mega-trend." It is seen as a force "so ubiquitous that it will substantially shape all the other major trends in the world of 2020."
The entire 2020 forecast may be viewed on the Internet at http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html
(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
This page printed from: http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2005&m=January&x=20050114134112dmslahrellek0.9146082&t=livefeeds/wf-latest.html
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