Space


Long March-9 Manned Lunar Booster

To meet long-term space goals, China will need to develop a rocket with a takeoff thrust of 3,000 tons, three times that of Long March-5, which will be able to send men to the moon, Liang Xiaohong, deputy head of the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, told China Daily on March 04, 2013. Research on a heavy-thrust launch vehicle has been carried out in the past years. Scientists visualize a rocket with a diameter of at least 8 meters, able to send a 100-ton payload into low earth orbit. The academy aims to have the heavy-thrust rocket project approved by the government under the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-15), Liang said. "If approved, China will stand in the same line as space powers such as the United States and Russia regarding launch vehicles, which is the precondition for all space activities," he said.

China's Long March-9 Manned Lunar Booster

© C. P. Vick 2009 All Rights Reserved

Rev-5

6-21-10 -- 9-02-10 updated 7-11/8-1-12/3-21-13

Introduction

 The CZ-9 will be "China's Saturn V" , but with about 11.6 million lb. of liftoff thrust compared to 7.5 million lb. for the U. S. Apollo mission launcher. But the CZ-9 would not be able to propel as much mass into Earth orbit, requiring orbital assembly of any Chinese manned lunar landing mission around 2025- 2030  or later. The program has now been submitted as a proposed State Program as expected. China’s final design studies for its newly designated CZ-9 Long March-9 Earth orbit, lunar, and planetary, heavy lift booster has finally been revealed in considerable detail. It goes further to provide the information that also reveal what its timing schedule is under the PRC’s State Planning, Five Year Plan system with some component development in the very early stages of development as it is envisioned under the present official considerations.

Chinese booster development is run in a somewhat similar manner to Soviet era Five Year Plan (FYP) and the Ten Year Forecast Plan (TYFP) and the Fifteen Year Outlook Plan (FYOP), State fiscal planning scheme, for research and development periods for a space booster and strategic ballistic missile development projects. The “design study development” known as the “Draft Project” second phase of the Chinese Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology review of the potential heavy lift booster after the Long March-5E medium heavy lift booster has been started from the middle of the present PRC Five Year Plan 1-2006 through 1-2011. When it was announced in March 2010 there was nothing officially scheduled for its development since only phase one of “concepts development” i.e. “Technical Proposal” had taken place up to that point. The studies are the standard second phase of launch vehicle development consideration in China’s State Planning. There are a total of five phases that must be successfully accomplished before this booster would become operational part of the launch vehicle inventory. China in the mean time expects to replace most of its launch vehicle inventory with derivations in theCZ-5/Long March-5 series.

Multiple Five Year Plans from Concept to Flight Operations/Production:

Each stage in development matures in the middle years of the individual FYP. It generally takes two to three five years plans to be completed by the normal Soviet cycle. In fact each year of the FYP is defines with quarterly requirements for all State projects

Right on time as predicted here in 2010-2012 a Chinese intent to get State commitment to a crewed lunar booster as a State Project was introduced to the Peoples Republic of China 12th. Chinese People's Political Consultive Congress by the PRC Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology to get the project approved by the PRC government under the present 12th Five Year Plan making it an official State Program during the period 2011-2015. Rarely if ever does a project of this magnitude get turned down by the State of an already started approved guided State development process. The following is the direct quote published on March 4, 2013 in Chinadaily.com.cn:

"But to meet long-term space goals, China will need to develop a rocket with a takeoff thrust of 3.000 tons, three times that of Long March-5, which will be able to send men to the moon. :

Research on a heavy-thrust launch vehicle has been carried out in the past years. Scientists visualize a rocket with a diameter of at least 8 meters, able to send a 100-ton payload into low earth orbit.

The academy aims to have the heavy-thrust rocket project approved by the government under the 12 th. Five-Year Plan period (2011-15), Liang [Xiaohong deputy head of the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology] said.

"If approved China will stand in the same line as space powers such as the United States and Russia regarding launch vehicles , which is the precondition for all space activities," he said."" xindingding@chinadaily-com.cn (19)

Never was a policy statement so explicit stated from a PRC official acknowledging the Five Year Plans with all its implications of intent confirming the PRC goal of matching the United States and Russian capability in space logistic systems as a competative world power.

Though this appears not to be a lunar booster/lunar race clearly depends on the US commitment to the SLS {Saturn-VII -cpv} full all up booster 's with liquid fueled strap-on boosters and new larger escape stage successful development which may prove more difficult than presently perceived. It could be far closer than the USA would like to comfortably face geopolitically .

Getting State approval means the real hardware research and development especially for the closed cycle liquid propellant rocket engines etc. will start spanning over several Five Year Plans of the military industrial commodity economy for man-hours, materials, equipment, and national military civil labor manpower personnel requirements to carry out thisState national goal.

Soviet Project Development Scheme for State Planning as Applied in China, North Korea and Iran.

“Concept development”

  1. “Design studies development” with trade off options analysis.
  2. “Design development” of the final design including sub scale testing, facilities support infrastructure development (launch facility & industrial base factory construction)
  3. “Actual development” of the test prototypes through experimental flight test acceptance
  4. “Production” of the accepted vehicles

“Technical proposal” Concept development

1. "Draft Project” Design studies development

2. “Technical Project” Design development of the final design including sub scale testing, facilities development

3 “Working Documentation” OKB Design specifications for the dedicated factory further development and eventual production

4. “Test samples manufacturing and State testing” Actual development of the test prototypes through flight test acceptance followed by production of the accepted vehicles

5. “Working documentation corrections and improvements of samples” Production

CZ-X-? Heavy Lunar Booster very Preliminary Conceptual Details

The CZ-9 heavy lift booster is as of 2010 in its design studies development was to have a gseneral liftoff thrust on the order of 3,000 metric tonnes [6,750,000. lbs. f] verses the Long March-5 liftoff thrust of 1,000 tonnes [2,205,000. lbs. f]. That has undergone a considerable change since 2010-2011. In this early phase of the design studies that will end in sub-scale vehicle configuration, dynamic, structural testing the actual settled upon design and the required payload configuration, payload capacity have not been fully resolved pending the results of the preliminary trade off design studies. Mission configuration trades off studies are still under consideration based on hardware experience already in the pipe line and those planned for the Long March-5 series.

Those initial design studies had revealed the proposed five engines for it first stage with a launch thrust level for each engine of 600 metric tons [1,323,000 lbs. f] or 3,000 metric tons [6,615,000 lbs. f] thrust very similar to the latest Russian approach. This design seems to be based on a large diameter core with four large diameter strap-on boosters using the same engine. This is what Mr. Phillip Clark of the British Interplanetary Society suggested in published studies some years previously. This in the following FYP 2011-2015 in [2011-2012] has indeed changed from this earlier but correct direction projections.

If the engine design studies are approved for development of the engine scheme for the next five year plan the engines component R&D would be started about mid-way through the next five year plan 2011-2015. That would be the first article proposed for development expected to take two five year plans to be concluded successfully. It would be an indication of the PRC’s government intentions to pursue a post LM-5E heavy lift launch vehicle program for future application to State approved missions. That became fact as of 2012 with the completion of the YF-100 State acceptance long duration demonstration static test firing clearing the way for engine production.

Based on its thrust level at liftoff as of 2010 as presented suggest that this is an Earth Orbital Rendezvous booster design approach payload capacity possibly in the 30-35 metric tonnes range for such a mission. Without higher thrust a more direct 45-50 metric tonnes Saturn-V class approach is not possible with this lower thrust level. That is it is a similar to the launch earth orbit assembly design approach as Russia’s, Federal Space Agency & industry was pursuing at the present time with a similar intent. Many of these issues may not be resolved until the middle of the next five year plan 1-2011 through 1- 2015 where a decision will be made to delay or add it to the next five year plan for development and use of the national resources as the medium powered Long March-5e is due to come on line. It is already known that China has put off a manned lunar landing program for the 2026 through 2030 five year plan period. This fits the nominal State planning process scheduling. For further details see the following piloted lunar landing article: piloted-lunar-landing

The Final Design Studies as the Actual Details Presented 2011-2012

This detailed information was revealed by China’s Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology Data Via its Communist Party Committee Secretary Minister Liang Xiaohong. So far the designs have evolved through the following FYP processes with phase three and four to cover through 2016-2020 and 2021-2025:

2006-2010 (2010-2.n 011) completed work:

1. “Concept development”

2. “Design studies development” with trade off options analysis.”

2011-2015 now in progress:

3. “Design development” of the final design including sub scale testing, facilities support infrastructure design development start of engine component R&D.

CZ-9/Long March-9 Lunar, Planetary Heavy Lift Booster Design Studies completed during 2010-2011 in an authorized accelerated effort now undergoing State review.

Configurations Studies Concept-A Concept-B
Original Launch Thrust metric tons thrust force 2009 3,000 3,000
New 2012 launch thrust metric tons 5,200 5,000
Payload capacity- metric tons mass 130 133
Maximum overall booster diameter meters 15.70 15.70
Maximum design height for study meters 98 101-108
Launch mass metric tons 4,100 4,150
Strap-on boosters 4 – liquid Kerosene, Lox boosters 4 - five segment solid propellant motors
Strap-on boosters diameter meters 3.35 3.35
Strap-on booster thrust metric tons 1 x 650 x 4 = 2,600, engine YF-650 1 x 1,000, x 4 = 4,000 Solid Motor
Strap-on propellant mass metric tons 1 x 320 x 4= 1,280 1 x 575 4 =2,300
Core Stages diameter meters 9 9
Core first stage metric tons thrust, propellants and engines 4 x 650 = 2,600, YF-650 engines, Kerosene, Lox propellants** 5 x 200 = 1,000 YF-220 engines, Lox, Hydrogen propellants
Core first stage propellant mass metric tons 1,756 1,000
Core second stage maximum diameters meters

9 9
Core second stage thrust metric tons and propellants 2 x 200 = 400, Lox, Hydrogen propellants 1 x 200 = 200, YF-220 engine, Lox, Hydrogen
Core second stage propellant mass metric tons 500 200

CALT-China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, data

Certainly the two designs are in a collision for the focused State decision. “A” is believed to be the final design chosen for development approval because the YF-330/YF-650 development has started early during the 2011-2015 FYP after the successful State Acceptance demonstration firing of the YF-100 for production. Although depending on who is to be believed it is suggested the preferred design for S & T development reasons is the “B” large solid motors design. Although the large solid booster option is interesting it is not the Chinese experience base for successful launch vehicle development. China’s solid motor trouble development experience has previously caused cancellation of its use considerations for the present design of the CZ-5, LM-5 booster series. The payload configuration of the CZ-9 remains undefined from the available information but reflects the design missions requirements.

** YF-650 thrust initially was rated at 600 metric tons thrust but has since had it requirements changed to 650 metric tons force thrust and utilizes two identical thrust chambers with offset centerline closed cycle high pressure staged combustion turbo machinery, and digital throttling performance control.

Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Performance Comparison

Launch Vehicle Low Earth Orbit Payload TLI Payload
Saturn-V, Apollo-16 308,741 pounds or 140 metric tons TLI payload 109,572 pounds ~50 metric tons
Super Saturn-V Comet 560,952 pounds or 254.4 metric tons 215,208 pounds or 97.6 metric tons
SLS 70-130 to150 metric tons 46-54+ metric tons estimate? Undefined
Long March-9, CZ-9 130 metric tons 46-47+ metric tons estimate? Undefined

? – Undefined

The NASA, SLS booster allows for two strap-on boosters initially but could later utilize four strap-on boosters as NASA is now discussing while the Chinese, Long March-9/CZ-9 is designed for four strap-on boosters but could utilize six strap-on's. This is similar to what is being studied for the Long March-5DY concept with and added payload capacity up to 50 metric tons to low earth orbit.

CZ-5DY is characterized as a potential crewed lunar mission concept for 2025. The booster design concept features: 5m in diameter core and 6 boosters of 3.35m; 4 YF-100 engines in the core and 2 in the boosters; 4 YF-77 engines in the second stage; 5m in diameter rocket fairing; 1600t launch mass, and is 72m long. Obviously this is one of many concept explored within the Chinese Long March series for earth orbit, lunar, planetary and deep space missions requirements consideration for the decision makers. Of the four lunar mission techniques briefly addressed are the known Direct launch, Earth Orbital Rendezvous, Lunar Orbital Rendezvous and a combination of Earth Orbital Rendezvous, Lunar Orbital Rendezvous mission concepts. Clearly the Chinese have chosen the rendezvous methodologies to concentrate on for future development.

There are also studies of the CZ-5A with a Shenzhou spacecraft on top for EOR with Long March-9 payload for lunar mission possibilities. In both cases the utilization of added strap-on boosters would allow greater payload capacity to low earth orbit than is presently being considered which is critical to deep space mission build up operations.

Engines in Development for 2015 & 2020

They are developing two new engines for State Planning completion by 2020. Like all launch vehicle development the rocket engines must be developed far enough along before the booster development and production begins. China is following the same engine launch vehicle development planning as applied to the LM-5/CZ-5 booster. The YF-100, 120 metric tons thrust for LM-5/CZ-5 is the technical bases for a 330 metric tons thrust YF-330 single thrust chamber engine to be combined with a second identical thrust chamber engine to create the YF-650 engine with 650 metric tons thrust similar to the RD-180 design configuration. Total launch thrust 5,200 metric tons that is 11,466,000. Lbs. f thrust a up rated Saturn class design chosen to match SLS payload capacity. That is the present proposal with the engine components now in R&D. While the lox hydrogen engine YF-220 is apparently based on a Vulcain SEP like design to produce 200 metric tons thrust.

AAPT-Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology YF-650 left & YF-200 right schematic as presently defined by the CALT-China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology & AAPT-Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology. Previous labeling was as YF-600 which has since 2010 changed to YF-650.

AAPT-Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology YF-330 left & YF-650 right configuration design studies based on their closed cycle off set side saddled turbo-machinery. Previous labeling was as YF-600 which has since 2010 changed to YF-650.

Engine design installation requirements:
Thrust Kn. Nozzle exit diameter Swing angle degrees Stand-alone static envelop diameter (meters) Stand-alone swing area diameter (meters)

Dual Static envelop diameter (meters)

Dual Sting area diameter

(meters)

3300 1.827 8 2.127 3.014 4.436 5.632
6600 1.827 8 3.955 4.256 ---- ----
AAPT-Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology data

Note: 600t, 650 metric tons thrust engine utilizes one fixed thrust chamber and one-way swing thrust chamber. The 300 metric tons thrust engine has one engine inside 3.35 meters and 5 meters for two engines with two way swing capability. The 600 metric tons thrust engine with one thrust chamber fixed and one with a one-way swing thrust chamber requires a 5 meter diameter stage specification.

Engines Data:
PARAMETERS YF-650 YF-220
FYP completion 2020 2015
Propellants Kerosene, Lox Lox, Hydrogen
Thrust design studies requirements of 2010 600 metric tons2010, Now 2012 650 metric tons N/A
Thrust sea level Kn. 6,600 two chamber, 3,300 one chamber N/A
Thrust vacuum Kn. 7,187 2,000
I /sp Meters/sec. sea level 3,000 N/A
I/sp Meters/sec vacuum 3,267 4,312
Chamber pressure MPa.

20 10
Mixture ratio 2.6 5.5
Oxidizer flow rate Kg/sec. 1,589 392
Fuel flow rate Kg/sec. 611 71
Nozzle 30 80
CALT-China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology & AAPT-Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology Note: Since the engine performance parameters have been raised from 600 tonnes to 650 tonnes thrust the more powerful YF-650 would require a higher propellant flow rate than indicated through a higher speed turbo machinery operation.

CALT-China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology. The new long March CZ - 6 through CZ - 11 family of launch vehicles in development. The CZ-5B is capable of supporting crewed lunar circumnavigation while the Standard CZ-5 can support a lunar orbital mission. While the CZ-9 can support a lunar orbital and manned lunar landing, lunar base missions. All of these new CZ boosters in development are supporting the technology demonstration for the planned CZ-9 heavy lift booster.

It is interesting to not that the CZ-8 and CZ-10, the [LM-8, LM-10] have as yet not been publicly defined in China’s space program planning. They are probably crewed lunar mission or reusable design studies in progress.

CALT-China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, The competing design study configuration “A” and “B” for the CZ-9 = Long March-9 heavy lift earth orbit, lunar, planetary deep space booster. Although the large solid booster option is interesting it is not the Chinese experience base for successful launch vehicle development. Their solid motor trouble development experience has previously caused cancellation of its use considerations for the present design of the CZ-5, LM-5 booster series.

China’s Crewed Lunar Missions Planned for 2021-2025 / 2026-2030 Five Year Plans

In the meantime China plan to use the existing spacecraft variations and their boosters to do the initial un-crewed robotic lunar exploration precursor flights in the Chang’e-1 through Chang’e-4 series to accomplish "Orbiting, Landing & Returning missions" during the 2006-2010, 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 five year plans while pursuing the human crewed lunar program planning. The China Academy of Sciences has developed a twenty five year long term “Future Outlook” forecast the “space technology planning research strategy” document for the People's Republic of China (PRC’s) government consideration which was finished in the Five Year Plan (fyp-2006-2010). It is a road map of possibilities to study for decisions on whether to proceed with a human crewed lunar effort that would be very large national S & T resource demanding effort. In addition to that they must be looking over their shoulders because of the 2006 lunar exploration coordination agreement with Russia already formalized. The Chinese crewed Space Station program has won out in the shorter term committed efforts and will come first. World trends influence this with the leadership that has full knowledge of the US, European and Russian crewed lunar planning in development?

China’s Fiscal, Five Year Plan Process Defines the Timing Answers

Understanding China’s, Five Year Plan (FYP) and the Ten Year Forecast Plan (TYFP) and the Fifteen Year Outlook Plan (FYOP), State fiscal planning process precisely defines what they have stated consistently all along for the second generation Salyut/Mir class space station to appear in the middle to end of the 2016-2020 Five Year Plan, while the Lunar effort is planned for the 2021 - 2025 and 2026 - 2030 five year plans. In 2006-2010 FYP the lunar effort is in the long term 25 year “Future Outlook” forecast plan for development considerations by the government. This is outside the normal three sets of five year plans. The next five year plan known as the forecast plan is being set in 2009-2010 to start January 1, 2011 through to Dec, 31, 2015 followed by the January 1, 2016-Dec. 31, 2020 with the outlook plan. China with the 2011-2015 Five Year Plan has chosen to move forward on the basic science & technology propulsion with emphasis on liquid rocket engine development and some solid motor propulsion demonstration. So the Long Term Future Outlook plan of 2021-2025, 2026-2030 is but a discussion consideration issue to be settled by the government towards the end of the next five year plan 2011-2015 known previously as the forecast plan.

25 Year Future Outlook Planning Discussions

During 2007 several conceptual space programs began to be discussed as a prelude to the next five year plan introduction of the follow on 15-25 year future outlook plan 2021-2025 & 2026-2030 that is not on the official outlook plan. They included the discussion of Chinese crewed lunar flight (twice denied) and lunar base after 2018-2020 as well as a 20-25 ton manned space station program (once denied) for launch around 2020. Both programs would be dependent on the successful completion of the (Long March) CZ-5 launch vehicle. The Chinese, China National Space Administration (CNSA) made it clear that none of the conceptual programs are officially a part of any existing State plan as of now except the Space Station effort. These two conceptual programs were clearly headed for a collision among the various advocacy factions within the ruling Chinese space and political leadership community with mock up work already completed on the space station concept. Space Station does seem to have taken precedent over manned lunar aspirations for the military dominant hand in the decisions. It is now apparent that the new CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences study of human crewed lunar aspirations was undertaken instead because it seemed to have not quite taken hold within the S&T and Military, Political leadership priorities as yet. The fact that such discussions have been publicly revealed certainly portends for those decisions to be made in this five year plan for the addition to the next official Outlook Plan of 2021-2025 and long term strategic planning forecast for 2026-2030 as a part of the present five year plan (2011-2015). This has manifested itself in the form of the design studies for the human crewed heavy lift lunar booster discussions.

There are subtle Chinese indications of planned lunar circumnavigation missions as a part of the build up to the crewed lunar landing program. See the following article issues: piloted-lunar

China’s Manned Lunar Effort in the Outlook Plans for 15 Years Hence

Previously it was noted that eventually down the road two five year plans beyond the present five year plan we could expect them to have started developing a CZ-5 based earth orbital rendezvous (EOR) four to six payload assembly or a Saturn-V class near direct or EOR based launch vehicle in the 3,000 – 4,000 ton’s thrust category for human lunar landing and large earth orbit payloads. By 2012 that had risen to 5,200 metric tons liftoff thrust. Once the CZ-5 booster becomes operational after 2014, the single launch crewed circumnavigation mission becomes possible and the lunar orbital mission becomes possible through EOR. This is because the Shenzhou spacecraft has built into its design the capacity for earth orbit and lunar orbital missions. It could with proper equipment also support a human lunar landing mission through EOR similar the present Russian mission concept utilizing a heavy lift earth orbital rendezvous booster design approach. Ultimately it is the political leadership that must support and justify these programs domestically in spite of how much the industry and scientist believe it to be necessary. It is after all their rice bowel. The final answer to the Science & Technology (S & T) leadership questions must be a political answer. This however, does not preclude un-crewed lunar exploration in support of future follow on human exploration of the Moon and un-crewed exploration of the planets. Certainly the introduction of the CZ-5 booster will be the advent to much more advanced un-crewed lunar exploration probably followed with a limited human lunar circumnavigation and lunar orbit program in the 2014-2015/2016-2020 now slipped to the 2021-2025/2026-2030 time frames. Any manned lunar landing program development would not be expected to manifest itself until the 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 five year plans with the actual manned lunar program following after that during the middle of the 15 th., or 16 th., five year plans. Although the manned lunar landing program prospects are apparently in 2010 in the 25 year “future outlook plans” for future serious consideration this is a far cry from being an actual committed State program which it is not by China. during the 2011-2015 FYP. However realistically Manned Lunar Landing missions with not become operational until during the 2026-2030 FYP based on what is understood now. This does not preclude manned lunar circumnavigation or lunar orbit missions based on the CZ-5/Long March-5 booster derivations during the 2016-2020 & 2021-2025 FYP’s though 10 straight successful mission are required to become operational and crew rate the booster.

Caution on Program Pacing

The five year plan system still applies here as we see the R&D concept in competition in mid five year plan as expected but in fact much of the LM-6, LM-7, LM-5, 5B and LM-11 physical hardware in development now including the recently completed YF-100 rocket engines development means that it will be a relatively easy within the future next two five year plan to start the CZ-9 full core hardware development including flight tests and infrastructure construction as I have written up before. It could indicate partial parallel development in progress easing through one FYP early on to accelerate the efforts.

A. Present (FYP) five year plan 2011-2015=LM-5, 5B, LM-6, LM-7, LM-11 experimental flight test vehicles with LM-9 concept development scale model dynamic testing prototypes heading to fulfillment

B. Forecast FYP 2016-2020=Space station construction middle 2016-2020, 2021-2025 of two FYP’s plus LM-9 final design decision development including experimental flight test vehicles development 2021-2025/2026-2030.

C. Outlook FYP 2021-2025= operational LM-6 through LM-9 & LM-11 boosters for both un-crewed and crewed flights that would facilitate Earth Orbital Rendezvous {EOR} and {LOR} orbital operations as a combined mission configuration

D. 20-25 Year Future Forecast Plan Development 2026-2030

I cannot help thinking judgment wise, “best guess estimate” or acceleration wise one full FYP earlier but that could be a part of the contingency built into the FYP process due to State resources economic issues, that they are planning a series of crewed circumlunar navigation mission of some kind and orbital missions of the moon earlier with manned lunar landing in the mid to late 2021-2025 time frame or soon afterwards. They could do these missions much earlier with today’s existing hardware but need not rush themselves with no competition that even Russia seems to have backed off on. However the study of this development was all that was authorized in this FYP conducted as the Soviet’s use to carry out. Only with the next FYP will this become part of the official State program Five Year State Plan planning process and move forward there afterwards as I have previously indicated.

IE: I am attempting to read their play book……thanks to James T. Westwood consulting and teaching the present author.

James T. Westwood, senior consultant of Military Science and Defense Analytics, Unionville, VA., Deserves the Credit

An example of this is the impact of what Professor James T. Westwood opened my eyes to as I was taught at the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association in 1987 and at George Washington University courses in 1989 on “Soviet Economics Military S & T Prospects” by Professor James T. Westwood, who discovered in 1978 the relationship of the Soviet Five Year Pan (FYP) and the Ten Year Forecast Plan (TYFP) and the Fifteen Year Out Look Plan (FYOP) to all developments in the former Soviet Union. It is the drivers of the five-year-plan cycle of material, equipment and personnel resources allocation for national fiscal goals which is a very different currency fiscal planning system from that which is understood and utilized in the West. It was a new method in Sovietology to interpret and predict Soviet military and civil projects and programs of all kinds, e.g., military weapons and space-related programs. The Intelligence community did deep down below the TS-SCI multiple levels, where the real intelligence lies, recognize the importance of the FYP as this newly revealed intelligence shows but they never did developed it and utilized it with its immense predictive power for intelligence analysis,” According to James T. Westwood. The most critical example of this is discussed by Mr. James T. Westwood as follows: “That neither the vaunted C. I. A. nor other national and military department intelligence organizations ever seriously studied the U. S. S. R’s “master plan,” i.e., (the national Five-Year-Plan and the multiples-the ten year Forecast Plans and fifteen year Out-Look Plans that created the next five year plans) plan and its processes, its organization, its pervasiveness and, in particular, it’s highly significant usefulness to Western intelligence organizations for predicting programs well in advance……FTD did absorb it in the 1980's. Dr. Sheldon II and I had in fact discussed this process that I have come to in part understand several years before his untimely passing.

"According to James T. Westwood, senior consultant at Military Science and Defense Analytics, Unionville VA, in 1978, while employed as a senior special research analyst for one of the three-letter national intelligence agencies, he discovered and soon crystallized into application a novel, original technique for interpreting and predicting all of the military and space programs of the now former Soviet Union with consistent accuracy and reliability. This was, he said, the "great plan," the GOSPLAN. He said that CIA failed again in a systemic and incredible manner ever to be able to reliably predict the strategic behavior of the former Soviet Union in terms of "reverse analysis," to wit, reading the tea leaves from the native, bureaucratic Soviet perspective --planning and projecting on the same basis and by same method as did the former USSR. There came from this, numerous applications and non-surprises, e.g., that the ballistic missile programs, with their space rockets off-shoots (to coin a phrase), were arguably the most reliable and revealing among the hundreds of armor, aircraft, ship, artillery, etc. military hardware and operations programs- "In a recent interview with this author, Westwood says that to the extent that the military programs of the PRC long may have replicated the former Soviet Union's national planning schema, the same methodology likely can be successfully used to illuminate China's enigma in this century." This short write up demonstrated that capability to understand China. (1A)

He hoped, this magnificent blunder is not now being repeated with respect to the Peoples' Republic of China, Iran and North Korea. Because the current, active PRC, North Korean and more recently Iranian national planning scheme is based on the former Soviet model and is running now in phase for over a half-century, Westwood emphasized, it should not be a problem to draw a matrix and populate it in detail from 1953 on in order to have, at long suffering last, a reliable analytic tool for interpreting and forecasting Chinese weapons, space, energy and a host of other, important, national programs and projects -- in planning now, and in the recent past, for pay-off in the future. (1A)

Conclusion

This is no space race with China that is doing its own thing at its own pace for its geopolitical global, national agenda because there is no world space race competition that exists. Which in and of itself represents a real statement of the USA‘s world economic strategic power status and its political priorities in Science & Technology challenges. No government want a space race or strategic threat race but that is in fact in part a S&T policy de-facto reality that the US finds itself facing like it or not.

From the start of this process China has, like the West, used the available discretionary funds to push its S & T to drive its national economy to provide for development of its military industrial industry capabilities, all under the same Government employer roof.

We have to understand why these programs are being pursued by China. It has been the plan like in the West at least since the introduction of the S&T programs to apply from the total available government funding about 40% to basic scientific research to push the basic sciences and about 60% of the available funding to push the basic technologies, (research & development). This is done to drive the national economy and to provide above all, for the national security of the nation by keeping the Chinese technologically competitive with the technologically advanced world leadership. Typically this so called budget funding largely derived from the vulnerable to external influence capitalist economic zones of the PRC China for the command economy operated through the five year plan via the State controlled allocation of material resources and personnel which is broken down between strictly military programs and civil military dual purpose programs.

Throw away Western economic thinking perception which is not applicable here. What we have to remember which requires just the right descriptive words that the Chinese dollar is or has some world market value externally but it's in the internal command economy that it has essentially no real value or is essentially worthless as was the Soviet ruble in Soviet times. What they the Soviets said it was worth in Western terms was for Western consumption deception lies. That command economy unreformed military, industrial, complex of China is dependent of an economy based in resources such as materials, national military civil labor manpower personnel, man-hours, and equipment as the trading commodity with essentially no relationship to world currency. As the Chinese leadership has admitted publicly the economy would have long since collapsed if it was not for the Western economic zones that benefit all in china that could not exist without it.

According to senior consultant, James T. Westwood, of Military Science and Defense Analytics, Unionville, VA, "This is saying that the Chinese military industrial command economy is in fact a barter vice commodity economy with all kinds of fiefdoms for man-hours, materials, equipment, and national military civil labor manpower personnel barter within the system."

The Chinese Space Industry Directive Reflect the Overall Science & Technology (S&T) Goal of the PRC. The overall Chinese governments intent with the present effort is to continue closing the perceived large gap with Western countries in overall S&T development and especially in Space Technology one of the leading edge venues of the expanding envelope they are pursuing for the associated industry development to serve both the evolving civil dual purpose sector but especially the military sector though this was not directly stated. That is the command economy supported by the capitalist economic sectors is being directed to close the overall S&T perceived gap especially in national security interest regimes. They intend to continue to push and emphasize extensive international cooperation to help fortify the military S & T acquisition of technological know how experience for science and the dual purpose military industry requirement.

Basically we now have the PRC China manned spaceflight planning laid out for the next three five year plans including the former five year plan (2006-2010), 2011-2015, 2016-2020 with strong hints on the 2021-2025 FYP which reflects how China intends to both equal or pull ahead of any of the then to exist world powers on the world stage in manned spaceflight as a part of its doctrinal belief that it can replace one of those world powers on the world stage towards the end of that period. Whether like Russia in its present economy that has not lasted, the question is can China truly economically control and sustain this attempt remains uncertain but it is more probable than others as things stand today. The CZ-5 based EOR assembly payloads for a crewed lunar orbital mission seems more probable at this point but it must continue to be watched through the coming next few FYPs. It could also carry out the human lunar landing mission through the introduction of a new booster beyond the CZ-5 booster’s capacity now identified as the CZ-9/Long March-9. They have only in the last few years hinted at their 20-25 year forecast planning consideration requirements after the next five year plan. Such a 65- 100 metric ton plus capacity Saturn class launch vehicle “Technical Project” defining the immediate hardware technology development requirements in support of the future booster development planning. This is why this development project wise appears to be one five year plan ahead of its expected development schedule based on the Long March-5 experience.

This assumes that the leadership still supports such a policy with its even greater associated high resources demanding requirements on the command economy in the future. This is beyond the resource straining command economy commitment to the large support development production base infrastructure of the CZ-5E booster presently in progress. It alone is a full FYP behind schedule. Noting that in the PRC military is the State as well as the 2018-2020 start of the main space station program one is left with the question of how China is to support that space station program as well as a crewed lunar effort at the same time. Crewed lunar circumnavigation and lunar orbit programs are conceivable but a crewed lunar landing or lunar base program is quite another thing that all nations alone would find difficult to economically support including China. This brings into question whether China will have a human lunar landing capability until the middle of the fiscal 2021-2025 Five Year Plan or soon afterwards in the 2026-2030 FYP.

Background:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/china's_space_industry_forecasting.htm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/piloted-lunar.htm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/piloted-lunar-landing.htm

References, Credits :

A. Hui Li Chilcutt For the outstanding Chinese translation services

1A. As I was taught at George Washington University and the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association courses on Soviet Economics Military S & T Prospects by James T. Westwood, Military Science and Defense Analytics, Unionville, Virginia,

This is a series of web site addresses with various information on the CZ-9 booster

1. http://www.network54.com/Forum/211833/thread/1340863400/last-1340864626/CZ-9+is+official+name+for+chinese+super-heavy+launcher

2. http://www.defence.pk/forums/chinese-defence/84216-chinese-space-capabilities-4.html

3. http://www.defence.pk/forums/chinese-defence/84216-chinese-space-capabilities-4.html

4. http://www.defence.pk/forums/chinese-defence/84216-chinese-space-capabilities-9.html

5. http://www.defence.pk/forums/chinese-defence/84216-chinese-space-capabilities-10.html

6. http://www.astronomy.com.cn/bbs/thread-229857-1-1.html

7. http://www.sasac.gov.cn/2011qyzr/2011htkj.pdf original document

8. *ttp://www.chinaequip.gov.cn/2012-06/23/c_131670778.htm
9. *ttp://www.sasac.gov.cn/2011qyzr/2011htkj.pdf
10. http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?langpair=auto|en&rurl=translate.google.com&u=http://www.chinaequip.gov.cn/2012-06/23/c_131670778.htm&usg=ALkJrhgmfS2axRvOmNLyc3xg6He12b3fTg

11. http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=12021

12.http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=12021&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15

14. http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=18605.15

15. SEE Ref 11. PDF citation:

Research on power system of heavy launch vehicle in China

TAN Yong-hua (Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology, Xi'an 710100, China#

The development trend of future aerospace industry is analyzed. The necessity of developing the heavy launch vehicles and high thrust rocket engines to realize the manned moon-fall and deep space exploration is described. The main power system of heavy launch vehicles of China is planned. A integrated scheme of 600 t LOX/kerosene rocket engine and 200 t LOX/LH2 rocket engine is put forward. The primary parameters of the two engines are chosen. The key technology and development condition of the rocket engines is analyzed. The development effort is schemed. The development of the two engines will be completed in about 2020 according to the level of technology and industrial base.

---------------------------------------

16. PDF Document Citation

Study on Large Solid Booster Technology for Heavy Launch Vehicle

Ye Dingyou Gao Bo Gan Xiaosong Wand Jianru

Abstract : Large solid booster is the first choice of the power system for heavy bundled launch vehicle . Based on a deep analysis of the status and characteristics of foreign heavy launch vehicles and large solid boosters, as well as the current technological foundation and research capabilities in China, the concept of design, key technologies and development scheme of a kilo-ton class large solid booster are proposed in accordance with the technological requirements of China’s manned lunar project.

-------------------------------

17. PDF Document Citation

Research on High Thrust LOX/ Kerosene Rocket Engine As Main Power System of Manned Lunar Project

Li Bin Luan Xi ting Zhang Xiao ping

Abstract: High thrust LOX/ Kerosene rocket engine is not only the development orientation of aerospace main power system, but also the power foundation of important aerospace activities such as manned lunar project. The development scheme of 600t high thrust LOX/ Kerosene rocket engine with two thrust chambers as main power system for China’s manned lunar project is put forward, and the general design of staged combustion cycle and swinging after pump is provided. At the same time, the main parameters of the engine, the assembly configuration, the key technologies and the future utilization of the engine are presented. It will greatly improve the launching capability of China, and will ultimately meet the requirements of important space activities such as manned lunar project and deep space explorations.

--------------------------------

There's also a definition of the Chinese Phase I Manned Moon Program using the LM-5 and its derivatives:

As well as another paper defining an evolutionary path and applications for Sino-SLS:

PDF Document

----------------------

Like NASA, the people studying the so far hypothetical CZ-X are split between Kerolox and Solids for booster applications.

Both configurations have a core stage diameter of 9 meters #29.5~ feet#.

Left is CZ-X Configuration A with Kerolox, Right is CZ-X Configuration B with Solids.

CZ-X Basic Specs

Bullet pointed further:

CZ-X Configuration A #Kerolox#

4 x 3.35m diameter Boosters; each with a 650 tonne thrust kerolox engine; 350 tonnes of propellants.

9m Core Stage with four 650 tonne thrust kerolox engines and 1,756 tonnes of propellants.

9m Upper Stage with two 200 tonne thrust LH2 engines and 500 tonnes of propellants.

5,200 tonnes of liftoff thrust and 130 tonnes to orbit.

CZ-X Configuration B #Solids#

4 x 3.5m diameter 5 segment Solid Rocket Boosters; each with 1,000 tonnes of thrust and 575 tonnes of propellant.

9m Core Stage with five 200 tonne thrust LH2 engines and 1,000tonnes of propellants.

9m Upper Stage with one 200 tonne thrust LH2 engines and 200 tonnes of fuel.

5,000 tonnes of liftoff thrust and 133 tonnes to orbit.

The Chinese have already envisioned the following applications for a 130+ tonne rocket:

Phase II Manned Lunar Exploration #beyond that afforded by Long March 5 and its derivatives

  • Mars Robotic Exploration Missions with 41 tonne payloads.
  • Manned Mars Missions
  • Constructing orbital solar power plant with 10,000 MW capacity, massing some 50,000 tonnes, requiring 620+ launches)
  • Deep Space Missions

18. PDF citation:

(Journal of Rocket Propulsion) 2011-01,

Research on power system of heavy launch vehicle in China

TAN Yong-hua (Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology ,Xi'an 710100,China)

The development trend of future aerospace industry is analyzed. The necessity of developing the heavy launch vehicles and high thrust rocket engines to realize the manned moon-fall and deep space exploration is described. The main power system of heavy launch vehicles of China is planned. A integrated scheme of 6001 LOX/kerosene rocket engine and 2001 LOX/LH2 rocket engine is put forward. The primary parameters of the two engines are chosen. The key technology and development condition of the rocket engines is analyzed. The development effort is schemed. The development of the two engines will be completed in about 2020 according to the level of technology and industrial base. development of 200t-300t LOX/LH2 motor to be completed in 2015, 600t LOX/Kerosene in 2020.

*http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-HJTJ201101003.htm

19. Jumbo rocket design poses challenges, by Xin Dingding Chinadaily, xindingding@chinadaily-corn.cn , 3-4-2013 pp1-3.




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