Military


Tajikistan Civil War

Tajikistan, a newly independent country situated between China and Afghanistan, has been undergoing profound political and economic changes since the break-up of the Soviet Union. After the civil war in 1992, sporadic fighting continued in remote areas. The road to peace in Tajikistan has been long and tedious. The process of national reconciliation in this impoverished Central Asian country was set in motion by a June 1997 UN-mediated settlement between Tajikistan's Moscow-backed government and the Islamic-led United Tajik Opposition - or UTO. But the country missed almost every deadline set in the power-sharing agreement that ended the bloody five-year civil war, and some armed clashes involving renegade forces still take place.

Tajikistan is a small country, 93 percent mountainous, which at 54,000 square miles is roughly the size of Wisconsin. Tajikistan shares borders with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and Afghanistan. Tajikistan is made up of a number of distinct and relatively isolated regions separated by high mountain ranges. In fact, some of these regions are more closely linked economically to neighboring countries than to one another. The population is highly concentrated in the Western half of the country as the eastern half consists of the Pamir mountain range, the foothills of the Himalayas. The northern region, Leninabad Oblast, is Tajikistan's most industrialized and developed area and includes its second largest city, Khojand. Located in the Fergana Valley, it is tightly integrated with Uzbekistan which surrounds it on three sides. Dushanbe and the surrounding Hissar Valley are another important industrial center, including textile, metal working, and building materials factories, most of Tajikistan's hydroelectric capabilities, as well as the giant Tursunzade aluminum plant. Kulyab and Kurgan-Tyube, the hardest hit areas during the civil war, are the heart of Tajikistan's cotton production. Garm and Gorno-Badakhshan, the poorest and most isolated regions, rely on production of potatoes, fruits, such as nuts and honey, livestock and tobacco. The rugged terrain, along with the political and religious differences in the country, have created a strong sense of local identity and rivalry.

The population of 6 million is 65 percent Tajik; 25 percent Uzbek; 3.5 percent Russian (including Russian- speaking nationalities). The Slavic population of Tajikistan has declined by almost ten percent since the 1989 census. Approximately 70 percent of the population lives in rural areas, making Tajikistan the least urban of the former Soviet republics.

The official language of Tajikistan is Tajik, a dialect of Persian similar to Farsi and Dari. Approximately 36 percent of the population and most business persons and government officials speak Russian. The further one travels outside of Dushanbe and Khojand, the sharper the decline in those persons speaking Russian. In the countryside, particularly in Kurgan-Tyube and Leninabad, much of the rural population speaks Uzbek as well as Tajik.

Tajikistan is located at a crossroads of major world civilizations--Russia, Turkey, Iran, India-Pakistan, and China--and has been influenced by each. Russia, China and India share an interest in restraining Islamic fundamentalism, while Iran and Pakistan vie to reinforce Tajikistan's Islamic identity. Russia and Tajikistan's fellow Central Asian neighbors--Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan--have been concerned about drug and gun running across the borders as well as Islamic fundamentalism, and have mostly supported Tajikistan's secular regime. Russia has been concerned to safeguard the 90,000 ethnic Russians still residing in Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, to safeguard the 1.5 million ethnic Uzbeks residing there. Discrimination against ethnic Russians in Tajikistan has increased and fuels a continuing exodus. The only political violence in Dushanbe has been a number of killings of ethnic Russians, usually soldiers, which has been of little comfort to Russian civilians.

Tajikistan's neighbors in the region, in particular Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation, maintain great influence over the course of internal Tajik politics, and neither state has behaved as if it considered Tajikistan a genuinely sovereign and independent country. Due to the geography of the region and the whims of Soviet planners, Tajikistan is largely at the mercy of Uzbekistan for all overland and rail transport. Tajikistan has moved to reduce its energy dependency on Uzbekistan by signing a tripartite agreement on trade, economic, and cultural relations with Turkmenistan and Iran. Turkmenistan provides Tajikistan with reduced cost fuel and natural gas as part of the agreement.

In May 1992, the Tajik opposition seized power from the Tajik Supreme Soviet, precipitating civil war. The opposition was defeated in December 1992 and the current Tajik government assumed control. The defeated opposition comprised a coalition of self-declared democratic and Islamic groups and Islamic fundamentalists, a plurality of whom originate from the Garm-Kartogin region of the country, and Pamiris, who were traditionally underrepresented in the ruling coalitions during Soviet and pre-Soviet rule. Since early 1993, the ongoing armed insurgency of the opposition forces, in particular from across the Tajik-Afghan border, continued to destabilize the country.

Tajikistan was ruled in 1993 by a coalition of regional and clan groupings [dominated by Tajiks from the southern Kulyab/Kulob region] which won a clear-cut military victory in a civil war racking the country, particularly its southern regions, during 1992. The winning coalition was supported by Russian, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and Uzbek forces. The Supreme Soviet (parliament) elected Imomali Rahmanov, Kulyab regional executive chairman, as its Chairman and Head of State in November 1992. Much of Rahmonov's support came from the victorious People's Front forces which originated in Kulyab and Kurgan-Tube, the Uzbek-dominated Hissar region which aided in the battle of Dushanbe, and members of the traditional northern economic elite of Leninabad.

Tajikistan remains in the hands of a largely authoritarian government, although it has established some nominally democratic structures. The Government's narrow base of support limits its ability to control the entire territory of the country. The Government of President Emomali Rahmonov, which consists largely of natives of the Kulyab/Kulob region, continues to dominate the State, even though some Kulobis were removed from senior positions in 1998 and opposition members were taken into Government. Some regions of the country remain effectively outside the Government's control, and government control in other areas exists only by day, or at the sufferance of local opposition commanders.

In addition to the Tajik Armed Forces, Russian Border Forces, with the approval of the Tajik Government, were deployed along the border to repel infiltration. The Commonwealth of Independent States has a peacekeeping force deployed within the country. The Russian Army's 201st Motorized Rifle Division, part of a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) peacekeeping force established in 1993, remains in the country. Russia, which already had 25,000 armed troops in Tajikistan, tentatively agreed in April 1999 to the establishment of a military base which would help increase the stability in Tajikistan. The Russian Border Guard Force (RBF) reports to Moscow and has primary responsibility for guarding the border with Afghanistan. It consists mostly of Tajiks with some Russians and a limited number of other Central Asians, although the officer corps remains principally Russian.

The new Government gradually extended its control over all major towns and most roads throughout the country except in the Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) where, by agreement with the regional authorities, its security forces did not enter. In return, the regional authorities pledged to control their own territory and to preclude operations by opposition forces. Although the Government by and large respected the agreement, the GBAO officials were unable to prevent armed opposition elements and their foreign allies (Afghan mujahedin) from using their territory for antigovernment attacks.

Opposition forces, based in Afghanistan and supported by mostly fundamentalist Afghan forces, posed a serious military challenge to the Government and to CIS (principally Russian) units by staging frequent raids across the border in southern Khatlon province and western GBAO. Although these raids and incursions did not threaten central government control outside the border areas, they caused casualties, blocked roads, and interfered with the movement of relief supplies and refugees.

The Government worked to reconstitute the principal elements of the former security forces: the Ministry of Interior, the National Security Committee, and the new Ministry of Defense. It sought to incorporate elements of the progovernment People's Front militia into these security organs, with limited success. Many People's Front units remained outside of central government control. These units, as well as the Ministry of Interior forces, committed numerous human rights abuses. The National Security Committee's forces and those of the Ministry of Defense were also responsible for abuses, though less frequently.

On 29 October 1992, at the invitation of the Acting President of the Republic of Tajikistan, the Secretary-General sent a good offices mission to Tajikistan. This was followed by the dispatch of a small United Nations unit of political, military and humanitarian officers on 21 January 1993, to monitor the situation on the ground. The Secretary-General appointed a Special Envoy on 26 April 1993. Between April and October 1994, the Special Envoy chaired three rounds of Inter-Tajik talks on national reconciliation, which resulted in the signing of an agreement on a temporary cease-fire and the establishment of a Joint Commission for oversight of its implementation. On 16 December 1994, by resolution 968(1994), the Security Council established the United Nations Mission of Observers to Tajikistan - UNMOT.

Fraud and intimidation marred the presidential election on 06 November 1994; the Government declared Rahmonov the winner with 58 percent of the vote. Also on 06 November 1994, a new Constitution, a significant improvement over the Soviet-era document, was overwhelmingly approved in a popular referendum. The opposition coalition of nationalists and Islamic groups defeated in the 1992 civil war boycotted the election and continued to wage a bloody insurgency along the Tajikistan- Afghanistan border and in the southeastern district of Tavildara.

Under United Nations auspices, the Government and the opposition engaged in several rounds of talks which led to a prisoner exchange, a provisional cease-fire, and establishment of joint commissions to monitor refugee issues and the cease-fire and a United Nations Mission of Observers to Tajikistan (UNMOT). The cease-fire began on 20 October 1994 and remained in effect through the end of the year, although several alleged violations were reported by both sides.

In the meantime, efforts to find a peaceful and lasting solution to the conflict continued. In May 1996, the Secretary-General appointed a resident Special Representative and Head of Mission of UNMOT. On 27 June 1997, President Emomali Rakhmonov, Sayed Abdullo Nuri, leader of the United Tajik Opposition [UTO], and Mr. Gerd Merrem, then Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General, signed in Moscow the General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord in Tajikistan and the Moscow Protocol. The signing of the Agreement and the subsequent convening of the Commission on National Reconciliation launched the period of transition. During this period, refugees were to return; UTO fighters were to be demobilized or reintegrated into the governmental structures; the armed forces, police and security apparatus were to be reformed; and the democratic processes in the country were to be improved, leading to elections and the formation of a new Government. The parties requested United Nations assistance in the implementation of the Agreement.

Due in part to the actions of those opposed to the implementation of the June 1997 peace accords, the situation in the capital and its environs remained insecure. Reporting to the Security Council on 4 September 1997, the Secretary-General indicated that to carry out its new tasks UNMOT should be strengthened significantly. The Mission's civil affairs component would need to be increased and additional expertise added in the areas of public law (including human rights), police, electoral affairs and coordination of international assistance. The military component would also be increased to 120 military observers from its previous authorized strength of 45.

In November 1997, the Secretary-General reported that substantive progress towards addressing the security concerns had been made, leading him to recommend that the Security Council expand UNMOT's mandate as proposed in his September report. The Council, by its resolution 1138 (1997) of 14 November, expanded the mandate of UNMOT and increased the size of the Mission in accordance with the Secretary-General's recommendations.

In November 1997 two French citizens were taken hostage by a semi-independent armed group operating to the east of Dushanbe. One was released after two weeks, but the other was killed during a rescue attempt. The group that took these hostages has reportedly been eliminated, but the general security situation is not stable. Also in the fall of 1997, there were a number of explosions, some on public transport, in which some local persons were killed or injured. In August 1997 there was an outbreak of fighting between government factions within Dushanbe and to the south and west. Smaller clashes between paramilitary gangs took place in Dushanbe in September 1997 and May 1998 as well. In July 1998, four United Nations personnel were murdered in the Karotegin Valley.

The peace process was disrupted by violence and made only slow progress. In May 1998, the Secretary-General reported that the process would take longer than allowed for in the timetable of the peace agreement As a result, it seemed unlikely that elections could be held in 1998.

On 3 November 1998, a force led by Mahmud Khudoiberdiev and former premier Abdumalik Abdullojonov launched an offensive in Leninabad Province, the largest and most prosperous region of the country. Khudoiberdiev is a former army colonel who has been mentioned in connection with anti-Government activities in the Khatlon Province, from which he was ousted in August 1997. His force took control of Khujand, the main city and provincial capital, including the airport, and the mountain pass in the south linking the province with the rest of the country. A number of demands were made, including a share in the Government. On 6 November 1998, the Government began a counter-offensive, in which UTO joined. By 10 November, the Government had retaken control of the Province after intense fighting. Khudoiberdiev's whereabouts were unknown; it was believed that he had left the country. According to the Government, casualties amounted to 110 killed, almost half of them civilians, and 600 wounded.

On 25 December 1998 UTO leader Abdullo Nuri formally declared the return of all UTO fighters to Tajikistan and the closing of all its bases outside the country. He further pledged, on 28 December, that the UTO would disband its military forces in early 1999, in accordance with the General Agreement, to pave the way for the lifting of the ban on UTO political parties. According to the military protocol, armed units that do not cooperate with its provisions will be considered illegal and subject to forcible disarmament.

On 5 January 1999, CNR issued a formal resolution which recognized that UTO had not fully complied with the provisions of the military protocol. That resolution was preceded by a serious incident, on 30 December 1998, in which two opposition groups engaged in a firefight outside the CNR building in Dushanbe, killing five persons and injuring six.

Both the Government and the UTO expressed concern that the situation might deteriorate and have asked for international assistance to support the fighters. Temporary assistance for UTO personnel was originally envisaged in the context of strict implementation of the Protocol on military issues (notably the quartering of the fighters, registration and control of their arms, adherence to the six-month timetable), and UNMOT did provide food and other necessities until its limited means, which were meant to bridge only the first two months, were exhausted. In the present circumstances, the United Nations has explained to the Tajik parties that the international community could not be expected to subsidize armed forces for an indeterminate period.

The lack of support for their fighters and the absence of any further appointments of UTO personalities in accordance with the power-sharing agreement has deepened suspicion of the Government among UTO field commanders and diminished their support for the peace process generally. This is particularly pronounced in the Darband and Tavildara areas. The latter area is controlled by the UTO's chief of staff, who had been proposed for the defence portfolio under an understanding between the parties that a UTO member would be appointed to head a power ministry. President Rakhmonov has rejected this nomination.

Underlying much of the debate on constitutional reform is a latent dispute between the Government and UTO over the order in which elections are to take place. The Government side wishes the election of the President - his term expires in November - to come first, to ensure that a constitutionally elected executive is in place, bearing in mind that the UTO has so far retained its military capacity. For its part, the UTO wishes the parliamentary election to precede that of the President out of concern that the President, if re-elected, might be emboldened to consider the power-sharing agreement to have been superseded.

Opposition groups not aligned with the UTO, citing continuous disagreement over implementation of the peace accord in 1999, questioned the effectiveness of the ongoing peace process. During 1999, the UTO twice pulled out of the Commission on National Reconciliation that oversees the peace process under 1997 accords. The UTO complained that the government had failed to live up to its commitment to power sharing, legalizing the banned political parties and releasing jailed opposition fighters. In late April 1999, an opposition field commander (Mansur Muakalov) abducted six policemen to put pressure on the government to release his comrades from jail.

In June 1999 President Imamali Rahmanov approved amendments to the Tajik constitution demanded by the United Tajik Opposition. The changes, adopted in a national referendum in September, allow the formation of religious-based political parties. They also stipulate the creation of a professional bicameral parliament and extend the president's term in office from five to seven years. The landmark shift - making Tajikistan the only former Soviet Central Asian republic that tolerates registered Islamic parties - followed two other major achievements.

On 03 August 1999 UTO leader Sayed Abdullah Nuri reported that the process of integrating opposition fighters into the Tajik armed forces had been completed. The move, which practically transformed the opposition from a military faction into a political force, led to a decision by the Tajik Supreme Court to lift its 1993 ban on four opposition parties (the Democratic party, the Islamic Revival Party, the Rastakhez and Lali Badakhshan movements). These developments reduced the risk of renewed armed conflict in Tajikistan.

There can be no illusions about the threat to peace by third parties and renegade armed groups that roam the mountainous regions of eastern Tajikistan. Acts of violence, ascribed to armed bands not controlled by either the government or the UTO, continue to occur in otherwise peaceful neighborhoods. In August 1999 an appeal by the CNR to renegade armed bands to submit weapons was ignored.

More than one thousand Uzbek Islamists - including a number of renegade militants who fled persecution in Uzbekistan - settled in the eastern Qarategin valley causing a security problem. The militants were involved last summer in guerrilla attacks in Kyrgyzstan. The government and the UTO representatives agreed already in June that the Uzbek fighters on the Tajik territory have to leave. There are signs the Uzbek fighters in Qarategin valley have left Tajikistan. Tajikistan's minister of emergency situation and former UTO Military commander, Mirzo Ziyoyev, told the media in November 1999 that Uzbek militant Islamist leader Jumma Namangani and hundreds of his gunmen were deported to Afghanistan. However, there are no guarantees that they will not return.

The latest threat to peace came in the weeks before the 06 November 1999 presidential election in which the incumbent president, Imamali Rahmanov, ran unopposed. The UTO boycotted the vote and stormed out of the peace talks to protest the exclusion of opposition candidates. The government said the opposition candidates had failed to meet the registration deadline and were therefore not allowed on the ballot.

The UN Observer Mission in Tajikistan mediation led to a breakthrough between the opposition and the government. On 05 November 1999 President Rahmanov and Chairman Nuri signed a protocol guaranteeing for preparation and holding of parliamentary elections. The protocol is a basic document which guarantees that parliamentary elections will be held in a free and fair atmosphere.

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