Pashtun Taliban Insurgency
Since the middle ages, the plains of the Indian Subcontinent have been the happy hunting grounds of successive waves of bands of marauders from Central Asia. They came with a view to loot and plunder, and then go back to their impoverished hills and rag-tag settlements laden with booty. A few years later, some local chief would organize them anew, and sally through the Khyber Pass for yet another affray.
The Pashtun Taliban Insurgency that began in 2001 is neither Terrorism nor Islamic Jihad, though it features elements of both. It is simply the latest episode in a contest that has gone on for centuries between the Pashtun mountain tribes and the Punjabis of the Indus plain. With possibly one-fifth of the Pakistan Army Pashtoon, a crackdown NWFP and FATA would require the army to hurt their kinsmen in an area where kinship is everything. The added filip of al-Qaeda is but the latest installment of Wahabi enthusiasm that dates back nearly two centuries, to the Jihad against the Sikhs waged by the "Hindoostani Fanatics" - the followers of one Syud Ahmed of Bareilly.
The Durand Line broke the region's dominant Pashtun ethnic group in two, creating a Pashtun-majority Afghanistan and assigning a large portion of the Pashtun-populated areas to what was then British India. Some thirty million Pashtuns live on one or the other side of the "Durand Line," a border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pashtuns generally do not recognize the current border between the two countries as legitimate. They represent a majority of the Afghan population, and therefore, they claim a predominant role in its government. There is little benefit to winning the support of Pashtuns resident in Afghanistan, if the larger number of Pashtuns in Pakistan remain alienated.
The insurgency in Afghanistan has been raised by residents of Pakistan, some of whom are refugees from Afghanistan, others of whom are Pakistanis. It does not arise from opposition among large elements of the Afghan population toward their government. This is a Pashtun insurgency. The insurgency is organized, funded, trained and directed from Pakistan, where most Pashtuns live, and where most Pashtuns have always lived.
Reports in the spring of 2003 warned of the regrouping of al Qaeda and Taliban forces in the mountains of the North-west Frontier province, and their alliance with the radical Islamist party Hizb-i Islami. According to the Afghan ambassador to India, "[t]hese elements think that America will be distracted by the war in Iraq, and that the United States will not stay in Afghanistan." As of 2004 there were, essentially, three enemy forces operating against the Afghan government and its Coalition partners - al-Qaeda, Taliban, and Hizb-I Islami Gulbuddin (HIG). Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-I Islami Gulbuddin (HIG) organization, still seeking to influence the brokerage of power in Kabul, operated from areas east of the city and mounted [usually ineffective] attacks on ISAF, OEF, and Afghan National Army forces in the capital.
The Afghan Taliban are trying to drive the United States and NATO forces out of Afghanistan, using Pakistan as a base of operations. The local Taliban want to control the political situation through an Islamic government. This local Taliban subscribes to Sunni Islam grounded in Deobandism, from the Dar ul-Ulum madrassa established in Deoband, India, in 1867. Pashtun-based militant organizations have various agendas that are nominally Taliban but are more driven by greed and illegal activities - mainly drugs - than any religious motive. The term al Qaeda is used as a generic term applied to foreign fighters in the region - Chechen, Turk, Uzbek and others - who are loosely affiliated within financial support networks that allow them to operate or feed on each other. The result is a complex security situation that is not easy to define.
The insurgency is fractured among more than a dozen groups, including the Haqqani network, led by Pashtun militant Jalaluddin Haqqani; mujaheddin leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami; Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi; al-Qaeda and many others. HiG is shorthand for Hezb-i Islami Gulbuddin, the branch of Hezb-i Islami run by former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, as opposed to the Hezb-i Islami faction run by Malawi Khalis.
There is a widespread impression in the West that Quetta, Balochistan's capital, has become the command and control center of the resurgent Taliban. But the TTP is hated by the vast majority of Pakistanis, and this they know. They may carry out terrorist activities here and there but the TTP cannot "occupy" Islamabad and Pakistan. The Taliban do not have the numbers and the capacity to become strong enough to "invade" further.
The degree of official Pakistani complicity in the insurgency is a matter of controversy. In private, knowledgeable US, NATO, Afghan, and UN officials are nearly unanimous in asserting that the Pakistani intelligence service continues to collaborate with the Taliban and other insurgent groups operating out of the border regions against Afghanistan. The Pakistani Government, at the highest levels, denies any official sanction for such activities, suggesting that these reports reflect the activity of former members of its intelligence service acting independently and against government policy.
As Tariq Mahmood noted, "... the Taliban fostered Pashtun nationalism, albeit of an Islamic nature, and began to affect Pakistani Pashtuns. The triumph of the Taliban has virtually eliminated the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. On both sides, Pashtun tribes were slipping towards fundamentalism, and becoming increasingly involved in drug trafficking. Ultimately, Pakistan became a victim of its own vision at the hands of the Taliban, as the areas that were astride the Durand Line, including the FATA in Pakistan, became a virtual Jihad highway, having links to Al-Qaeda with the revival of radical Islam."