Second Chechnya War - 1999-???
When the Russian incursion into Chechnya began in October 1999, Russia said its objectives were limited to subduing bandits hiding in Chechnya's mountains. However, over time it became apparent that in this second phase of the Chechen war Russia is evidently intent on reversing the humiliating defeat it suffered in Chechnya three years ago. The Russian authorities present the war in Chechnya as a crusade against terrorism and an ultimate attempt to avoid the secession of Chechnya from the federation. The fighting is the worst in the region since Russia's 1994-1996 civil war with Chechnya.
The death toll is certainly in the thousands, including several thousand innocent civilians. As of late November 1999, Russian forces claimed to have killed more than 4,000 rebels while losing 187 soldiers since the offensive began. Chechen officials disputed those figures, saying rebel fighters have suffered minimal losses while killing thousands of Russian troops. They said the heaviest casualties have been among civilians, with nearly 5,000 killed. None of the figures could be independently confirmed, and both sides have tended to exaggerate enemy casualties while minimizing their own. As of early 2000 the Russian side admitted that over 1,100 of its troops had been killed since August 1999, but the Russian Soldiers' Mothers Committee reports 3,000 dead and 6,000 wounded. Estimates of Chechen killed and wounded are far higher, and far less certain. Russian defense officials say at least 10-thousand rebels have died. Chechen sources put the figure at less than half that, but say the number of civilians killed is far higher. The number of internally displaced persons is put at more than 230,000 people. Some were kept from fleeing the fighting when Russian authorities closed the Chechnya-Ingushetia border.
Each side has accused the other of preparing chemical or toxic agents for use in the conflict. Chechen parliamentarians said they had information that Russian troops attacked two districts in Grozny with chemical weapons in early December 1999, though this report cannot be independently verified. They said they are afraid Russian troops might destroy a nuclear waste storage facility just outside Grozny if the military is forced to leave. The Russian military said Chechen militants exploded canisters of toxic agents in a village on the outskirts of Grozny on 10 December 1999. General Alexander Baranov said he believed the canisters contained chlorine and ammonia and the blast resulted in a cloud of fumes. There was no way to verify the claim, since the Russian military has a near-monopoly on information coming from Chechnya. In early December Moscow-based defense analyst Pavel Felganhauer said that the Russian military's bombardment of Grozny would include "so-called aerosol bombs or vacuum bombs that can penetrate dugouts, bunkers and kill everyone inside of course, including civilians." [Although widely reported, these comments represented a misunderstanding of the effects of fuel-air explosives]. Such fuel-air munitions were reportedly used beginning on 06 December 1999.
The prospect of another full-scale war in Chechnya prompted Western governments to issue statements of concern over Russian tactics against rebels in the breakaway republic. But there appeared to be little appetite among outside powers to intervene in the conflict with anything more than public complaints.
The Russian government benefits from this criticism, because it allows Russian leaders to portray themselves as standing up for Russia against the West at no cost. Some observers connect the course of the war with the appointment of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in early August 1999. It is widely believed in Russia that the war has something to do with the presidential election coming up in mid-2000. With Yeltsin's approval rating standing at something like two percent in the polls, Putin won public support that he couldn't get any other way. Russia's public expected the Chechen issue to be resolved for good, and the present intervention enjoys the support of practically all political forces in Moscow. Former Russian Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov estimated that the Chechen offensive was costing from 115-million to 150-million dollars a month.
From Moscow's point of view, it cannot afford to lose the Caucasus, the pathway to Caspian Sea oil and to Russian influence in the Middle East and Central Asia. While Russia remains, it can block efforts by other powers like Turkey and Iran to become established in the Caucasus. Russia's policy in Chechnya is a part of broader Russian policy across the entire Caucasus designed to freeze out other people and allow Russian influence to come back. By its reconquest of Chechnya, Russia served notice to the US that Russia has stopped retreating from the Caucasus and intends to scuttle US plans to gain control over the region.
Historically, energy from the Caspian has gone north, only north, and then from Russia into world markets. In 1995 a consortium of international companies decided to build two pipelines from Azerbaijan. The western line to Supsa, Georgia, opened in April 1999. The pipeline to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossisk opened, and then closed because of events in Chechnya. The countries and the energy companies operating in the region believe that they need to have a multiple pipeline system. After long negotiations, in November 1999 Turkmenistan, Azarbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and the United States agreed on the development of a commercial pipeline to sell gas from Turkmenistan through Georgia and Azerbaijan to Turkey and on to Europe. The pipeline will bring the Caspian Sea's oil to the Mediterranean without crossing Russia and Iran. The Turkish export route for Azerbaijan's huge reserves of oil and natural gas is aimed at reducing the former Soviet republic's dependency on Moscow. This deal represented a long-term strategic triumph over Russia's historic aspirations and interests in Central Asia. The Chechen War was the best argument in favor of the agreement on an oil pipeline from Baku to Turkey as an alternative to a Russian pipeline, paradoxically confirming the Russian assumption that the United States benefits from Chechnya because it wants to bring the Caucasus under its influence.
In February 1997, after the signing of the Khasavyurt accords in August 1996 and the withdrawal of Russian military units from Chechen territory in December 1996, the Chechen people elected Aslan Maskhadov as the Republic's president. However, the terms of the Khasavyurt accords were violated by the Chechen side. The commitments assumed by the Chechen leadership to combat crime, terrorism and manifestations of national and religious enmity were not fulfilled. Moreover, since 1996 the ethno-political and humanitarian situation in Chechnya deteriorated.
When Yevgeny Primakov and then Sergei Stepashin were successively Prime Minister of Russia, their strategy focused on working with Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov, who is a moderate and a former Soviet Army officer. When the Russians, at the initiative of General Aleksandr Lebed agreed to withdraw from Chechnya, and agreed on a timetable for Chechen self-determination, they also promised major aid. But the promised aid to repair the destruction from the 1994-96 war never arrived, and the Russians did nothing to moderate the situation in Chechnya. Under those circumstances the more radical elements in Chechnya came to the top. The areas controlled by criminal gangs of extremist groups grew wider, and rebels in Dagestan declared their independence.
A wave of kidnappings hit the Caucasus region soon after Russian troops pulled out of Chechnya in 1996. Most of the blame has been placed on criminal gangs able to operate freely in the lawless region. Russian Interior Ministry statistics show that up to 1,300 people have been kidnapped in Chechnya between 1996 and 1999, with at least 500 people still believed in captivity. Many of the hostages are Russian conscripts serving in army units in the Caucasus. Other victims have included President Boris Yeltsin's envoy to Chechnya who was freed in 1998, Russian television journalists, and more than 60 foreigners, who are considered especially lucrative targets.
In March 1999, Russia's top envoy to Chechnya, Russian Interior Ministry General Gennady Shpigun, was kidnapped from the airport in Chechnya's capital, Grozny. In response, the Interior Ministry deployed more troops to the Chechen border region and threatened force if the hostage was not released (he was later executed in 2000). Later that same month, an explosion rocked a public market place in the North Caucasus city of Vladikavkaz, killing 60 people. Vladikavkaz is the capital of the North Ossetia region and lies just 30 miles from the Chechen border.
Human rights groups have repeatedly charged Russian troops with employing brutal tactics, amid signs the conflict has attracted foreign fighters. And the Kremlin's tight control over major broadcast media keeps the conflict largely out of the public eye, in spite of an almost-daily death toll among Russians and Chechens alike. President Putin rules out negotiating with Chechen separatist leaders, whom he calls terrorists. Any attempt to talk with moderate Chechen separatists would probably bring little result, as hard-liners would continue their fight against Russia.
On March 8, 2005 former Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov was killed during a raid by FSB special forces. While the circumstances surrounding his death remain murky, FSB head Nikolay Patrushev reported that Maskhadov was accidentally killed when a grenade was thrown into the bunker in which he was hiding. Russian media reports stated, however, that the Chechen leader was accidentally shot by one of his bodyguards during the chaos of the raid. Following his death, Abdul-Khalim Sadulayev was appointed as the underground president only to be killed by FSB forces a little more than a year after accepting the position on June 17, 2006.
Another blow dealt to the Chechen insurgency in 2006 was the death of Shamil Basayev on July 10th. Basayev was killed in Ingushetia when the vehicle he was traveling in exploded. The source of the explosion remains contested. While many say that Basayev's brutal tactics, especially the Beslan school massacre, alienated him from more mainstream Chechen separatists, his position as a key figure in the insurgency is indisputable.
As of July, 2006 the overall security situation in Chechnya remains exceedingly difficult to accurately report due to the near monopoly the Russian government has on media covering the issue.
