Ukraine Air Force Modernization
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) needs to receive 128 fighter jets from the West in order to fulfill the concept of rearmament. This was stated 21 August 2023 by the official representative of the command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuri Ignat. "The concept of the Air Force, which provided for rearmament, spoke of the figure of 128 fighters, which would be enough to replace the old fleet of equipment. This is about four aviation brigades," he said in an interview with the Ukrainian branch of Radio Liberty (recognized in the Russian Federation by media- foreign agent). Ignat stressed that they need to be dispersed across different airfields to respond to existing challenges.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a "breakthrough agreement" with the Netherlands on the supply of 42 F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv. Denmark also announced its readiness to transfer 19 F-16 fighters to Kyiv, the first six aircraft will arrive in Ukraine before the New Year. The Danish Air Force has about 30 fighters, which will be retired when the country switches to more modern F-35s. The Dutch Air Force has 42 of these aircraft. Denmark and the Netherlands have already announced the training of Ukrainian pilots, with the help of nine other countries. In July, Danish interim defense minister Troels Lund Poulsen said training would start in August at Skrydstrup in southern Jutland. According to plans, it will take at least six months.
The promises of Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is a political step to calm the Ukrainian side. Even with the fulfillment of the intentions for deliveries declared by European countries, these fighters are “not the military armada” that can change the course of the Russian special military operation (SVO), Alexander Mikhailov, head of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, said in an interview with TASS. The expert drew attention to the promises of Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine after the completion of the training of pilots of its armed forces and the fulfillment of other conditions. He recalled that talks about the transfer of the F-16 have been going on since November last year, but "not a single plane has yet flown to Ukraine." According to the expert, one should not expect a quick transition to real actions even now.
In the short run, Ukraine is focused on the supply of F-16 fighter aircraft but, in the medium term, the country is analyzing different platforms to stay ahead of the enemy. The relevant statement was made 12 December 2023 by Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov during a joint press conference with Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds in Kyiv, an Ukrinform correspondent reported. “In the short run, we are focused on the F-16 platforms. In the medium term, we are also analyzing different platforms, as we want to stay ahead of our enemy. Hence, the question of F-16, F-18, F-22, F-35, and other platforms is constantly arising,” Umerov told, adding that these matters are being discussed around the clock.
Bringing Ukraine's military capabilities in the air to the Russian level would require years of financial investment and pilot training, Mark Milley, Chief of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a press conference 18 July 2023. "Ten F-16s is two billion dollars, the Russians have hundreds of fourth and fifth generation fighters. If we try to bring it to parity with Russia - one to one, two to one - we are talking about a large number of aircraft, years of pilot training, years for service, to achieve the required level of financial support," he explained.
The new supply of Western fighter jets in mid-2023 prompted a comprehensive review within Ukraine’s air force of its structure, training and logistics needs, Ukraine President Vladimir Zelenskyy said 24 May 2023. “Work has begun on a comprehensive concept of the development of our aviation, taking into account the transition to new types of aircraft,” Zelenskyy said on his Telegram social media account. "A new organizational structure, training of pilots and personnel, necessary infrastructure, material, and technical support, etc.," the message said.
Kyiv's Western allies did not initially know who will supply Ukraine with air-to-air missiles for F-16 fighter jets. This is the conclusion reached by retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer, who led the Defense Academy of the United Kingdom until 2021, in an article published on 26 May 2023 in the Financial Times newspaper. Stringer believes that Ukraine could receive American medium-range missiles AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) or longer-range European-made Meteor missiles, but both models are extremely expensive. The cost of each AMRAAM missile is about $1 million, the expert specifies. "While national military stockpiles are officially classified for obvious reasons, it's no secret that most NATO forces are short of [ammunition]. Allies should speed up missile deliveries as a matter of urgency," Stringer said.
He also reports that one of the concerns of the allies was the possible low efficiency of fighter jets that could be transferred to Ukraine. “NATO usually supplies F-16s with a full range of support equipment: electronic warfare, enemy air defense suppression, airborne command and control systems. Without them, critics have argued, the aircraft will be ineffective,” writes Stringer.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian Air Force comprised about 210 aircraft of all types, including some 98 combat aircraft. However, lack of spare parts for its mostly Russian aircraft had reduced Ukraine's airworthy fighting strength to about a third of the total number.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell went off-script at a press conference on 27 February 2022 to refer to the possibility. “We are going to supply… even fighter jets” to Ukraine, he said, adding that some EU countries have the “types of aircraft” Ukraine needs to fight Russia. The next day Borrell backtracked in another press conference, he acknowledged that while the fighter jets were “part of the request for help we received from Ukraine”, the EU did not have the financial means to pay for these planes, which should instead be donated “bilaterally” by the various EU countries.
The Ukrainian parliament specified the donations: Europe, would send 70 combat aircraft in total, including 28 MiG-29s from Poland, 12 from Slovakia and 16 from Bulgaria, as well as 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria. Poland will not send fighter jets to Ukraine, the country said on 01 March 2022 – the latest in a series of similar denials from EU countries that highlighted early confusion over what that the bloc’s new military support for Kiev will actually encompass. Polish President Andrzej Duda said his country “will not send any jets into Ukrainian airspace”, arguing that ” this would open up military interference in the Ukrainian conflict”.
Besides Poland, the Bulgarian and Slovak governments also ruled out the delivery of military aircraft to Ukraine. However, at the same time, a Ukrainian official claimed as recently as 28 February 2022 that Ukrainian pilots had left the country to recover planes donated by EU countries. A spokesman for the Slovak Defense Ministry also denied any donations: “Slovakia will not supply fighter jets to Ukraine,” the spokesman said.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba spoke about the work of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's team to unblock the decision to provide Ukraine with the first squadron of foreign combat aircraft. He announced this on the evening of February 6 on the air of the national telethon.
"It doesn't matter whether it will be an American F-16, a Swedish Gripen, a French Mirage or Rafale, or a Eurofighter. It is essential to open a position, remove the taboo and get the first squadron of aircraft. Then we will decide, taking into account availability on the market and service, which model to place the main bet on," he said.
The Minister noted that, as of now, from the point of view of market size and availability of service, the basic model for Ukraine is the American F-16. At the same time, it is not necessary that this particular model will become the first foreign combat aircraft that Ukraine will receive. It is important to unlock the provision of foreign combat aircraft as such.
"I have no doubts that we will open the option of supplying combat aircraft. And here the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the Office of the President, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi personally - the whole team is working to open these last closed doors," he emphasized.
The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine added that the only barriers of partners in providing Ukraine with combat aircraft are psychological. He reminded that the same obstacles once stood in the way of receiving HIMARS MLRS, Patriot SAMs and Western tanks, but President Zelenskyi's diplomatic team still managed to overcome the barriers and unblock the supply of these types of weapons.
"Ukraine has already assembled a kind of tank zoo. We have a decision to provide Leopard, Challenger, Abrams and we are working on obtaining French Leclerc tanks. The main thing here is to open a position," he emphasized.
The minister reminded that none of the fears of the partners regarding the provision of previous types of weapons to Ukraine were justified. In his opinion, fears and apprehensions regarding the provision of foreign combat aircraft to Ukraine are also not justified, so the decision should be made as soon as possible.
Western countries had only just approved sending battle tanks to Ukraine, but by 30 January 2023 Kiev was already requesting F-16s to help repel the Russian invasion. Experts believe bolstering the Ukrainian air force could allow Kiev to hit Russian troops deep in occupied territory and dissuade Russian bombers from hitting civilian and energy infrastructure in land it still controls. But they warn the warplanes would not be a miracle solution to defeat the Russians.
The United States ruled out supplying American fighter jets to Kiev but European nations remain undecided. Germany, where the decision to send the Leopard tanks was seen as a major strategic turnaround, has ruled out sending warplanes. Poland said it was not having "official discussions" on transferring any of its F-16s to Ukraine.
Britain appeared to rule out sending its combat planes. The British government has not taken a final decision on the impossibility of transferring fighter jets to Kyiv, but for now it considers it right to refrain from sending them to Ukraine. This was announced to journalists by the head of the Ministry of Defense of the kingdom, Ben Wallace. "There is no firm solution," he said. "At the moment, I don't think that this would be the right approach." "I have been doing this for quite some time and have learned two things - never say something is possible and never say something is impossible," Wallace said.
France's President Emmanuel Macron said his country had not ruled out the delivery of fighter planes, but that Ukraine had not yet made such a request. Slovakia has said it would be prepared to send over MiG-29 fighter jets, while Dutch politicians recently floated the idea of sending Ukraine the F-16 jets it wants.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov voiced guarded optimism at a joint news conference with Lecornu on January 31, saying that all of Ukraine's requests were initially met with refusal by its allies, only to be eventually granted. "In the beginning, all types of aid went through the 'no' phase. That means no as of today. The second stage: let's discuss, study the technical possibilities. Third stage: let's prepare your crews. And the fourth stage: take it. It happened with HIMARS, it happened with 155 mm artillery, the same with Bradley [fighting vehicles]," Reznikov said.
Russia criticised comments by French President Emmanuel Macron, who refused to rule out delivering fighter jets to Ukraine but also warned against the risk of escalation. "Forgive me but this is absurd. Is the president of France really certain that if arms, heavy weapons and aircraft are supplied to the Kiev regime to conduct combat operations, this will not lead to an escalation of the situation?" foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters.
The Kremlin said that any deliveries of long-range weapons to Ukraine by Western countries would not change Russia's military objectives in Ukraine or change fighting on the battlefield. "This is a direct course to whipping up tension and to escalating the level (of fighting). It would require greater efforts from us. But again, it won't change the course of events," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.
On 31 January 2023, US President Joe Biden announced that Washington would not transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Later, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that Kyiv was invited to begin training in the UK for marines and fighter pilots in service with NATO. However, Sunak's spokesman later clarified that the government had not made a decision to transfer the fighters to Ukraine and the issue would be studied from different angles. In turn, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Republican Defense Minister Boris Pistorius have repeatedly stated that Germany is not going to supply fighter jets to Ukraine. As Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, emphasized, Moscow perceives the supply of weapons by the West to the Ukrainian armed forces as a growing involvement of Western countries in the conflict in Ukraine.
The Ministry of Defense of Lithuania reported that 36 L70 anti-aircraft systems will be delivered to Ukraine "in the near future", writes LRT 10 February 2023. It is noted that the L70 units are already being loaded onto trucks in the Radviliski district of Lithuania, from where they will be sent to Ukraine. "The L-70 air defense system will be transferred and transported, namely the air defense system, ammunition, additional equipment necessary for the operation of this gun. We hope that it will reach our allies in the near future," said BNS officer Jurgis Norveis.
L70 are designed to destroy air targets at a distance of up to 5 km. "It is used against helicopters, remotely piloted aircraft and against aircraft, both cargo and others," said Norweiss. He also added that the instructors of the Lithuanian army during the last weeks taught the Ukrainian military how to operate these anti-aircraft systems.
On 09 February 2023, the Minister of Defense of Lithuania, Arvydas Anusauskas, announced that Lithuania will hand over 36 air defense systems to Ukraine to combat drones - "shahedas".
According to local media, North Macedonia secretly sent four Su-25 aircraft to Ukraine, which had been mothballed since 2004.
The Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov, said 29 August 2023: "Allow me to explain that any aircraft is just an aviation platform. What matters is kind of missiles, bombs, shells it can carry, and which ones we can get. In other words, what it will be using to fight," he said. According to the Minister, the F-16 is the optimal combat aircraft for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as it has a number of functional advantage over aircrafts of a similar class.
“These aircrafts were the most produced in the world, they are most prevalent in the Armed Forces of our friendly partner countries from NATO, and not only from NATO. Many of these countries have decided to upgrade to the F-35 over the next few years. This means that they will be able to hand over F-16s to us, as well as spare parts and everything necessary for maintenance," said Oleksii Reznikov.
The Minister of Defence also focused on the Ukraine’s aspiration to create an ‘aviation coalition’. "A coalition is better than bilateral support," the Minister noted. He reminded about the success of other similar ‘thematic’ coalitions, namely tank and artillery ones, which made it possible to significantly help Ukraine with these types of military equipment, while the resources of just one country would not be enough for this. When several countries undertake commitment to support Ukraine with a certain weapon type, they get the opportunity to establish cooperation between themselves and to ease the burden on each individual country, Oleksii Reznikov explained.
"I can say that there are three more aircraft types our Air Force Command consider ace-high for us: Gripen (Sweden), Eurofighter Typhoon (produced by the international company Eurofighter GmbH), Dassault Rafale (France). However, Rafale is a new aircraft, and not many of them have been produced. Not too many Eurofighter aircrafts have been produced either," said Oleksii Reznikov.
Gripen, on the other hand, does not have such a ‘disadvantage’ and has several other benefits. "This is a great aircraft, and after returning from the tests, General Oleschuk [the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleschuk - ed.] said that we would fight for the Gripen aircrafts as well. They are very multi-functional in terms of weapons, they are very simple in terms of operation, and they able to land even on a regular road," the Minister of Defence said.
"No matter what, the F-16s will be here. I know it. Not only I think so, I do know it. And there will be more of various good interesting things," Oleksii Reznikov assured.
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