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Kedr - Medium Small Solid ICBM Project

The Russian defence forces expect to replace the RS-24 Yars ICBM with the Kedr in 2030. The design and development of the missile Kedr (Russian: meaning Siberian pine; Yuri Gagarin's callsign during the Vostok 1 mission is currently under Moscow's Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT). Kedr has both silo-based and mobile ICBM variants. The mobile-based ICBMs have a definite advantage since they can be moved around and are harder to detect. Russia is intent on upgrading its ICBM force as it takes on NATO and America in long-range missile duel.

In 2021, Russia tested the Kedr intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Plesetsk spaceport. The test was carried out in mid-June months ahead of Russia's troop deployment along Ukraine's border.

Russia has an array of upgraded missiles including R-36M2 missiles, Topol (SS-25) road-mobile missile system, Topol-M (SS-27) silo systems and the Yars mobile systems. Reports claim Russia is seeking to do away with the Topol system which is a Soviet leftover. The Kedr system will eventually replace the Yars units as Russia seeks missile dominance. According to Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report in 2017, Russia retains about 1,200 nuclear warheads for ICBMs but it has a program to upgrade its ICBMs at a rapid pace. The development of solid-fuel Kedr ICBM is set to take place early in 2024, reports say. The Russian missile troops operate several road-mobile ICBM units with most developed during the Soviet era.

Development of Russia’s new-generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Kedr, will begin at the turn of 2023-2024, a defense industry source told TASS 02 April 2021. "Research work on Kedr has been financed under the current state arms procurement program, which is in effect until 2027. Technological development will begin in 2023-2024," he said.

According to the source, solid-fuel Kedr ICBMs are to replace Yars systems at the turn of 2030. Just like their predecessor, the new system will have mobile and silo-based modifications, he added. At the time of the publication, TASS has been unable to obtain an official comment from the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, which had developed Topol, Topol-M and Yars strategic missile systems currently in service with the Russian armed forces. A source in the space industry told TASS that Russian defense companies had launched engineering drafting work on the new-generation Kedr intercontinental ballistic missile system.

In the interests of the Strategic Missile Forces, several research and development works are currently being carried out or planned to modernize existing systems or create new ones. In 2021, the upcoming development of the project with the code "Cedar" was announced. A missile of this type will enter service by the end of the decade, but the start of its flight tests has already been reported.

The first statements that can be linked to the Kedr project were made in December 2020. Then the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel General Sergei Karakaev, said that in the short and medium term, the development of new missile systems would begin. At the same time, the main goals of such work were announced, although no details were given. In addition, specific names and indexes were not announced.

On 91 March 2021, the TASS agency, citing its source, announced the launch of a research project with the Kedr code, aimed at creating a new generation strategic missile system. Unnamed enterprises of the military-industrial complex are participating in the work. No details were given due to the fact that the project was at an early stage - “it will be possible to speak in detail” only after the transition of research to development.

In early April, TASS published new information about the plans for Kedr. It was argued that this project is included in the current State Armaments Program, calculated until 2027. The transition to the stage of development work is scheduled for 2023-24. All work on the project, including flight tests, will be completed by the end of the decade. At the turn of the twenties and thirties, the first "Cedars" will go to the troops. The developer of the project remains unknown, but TASS tried to get a comment from the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering.

The next time the project "Kedr" hit the press was at the end of June 2021, in connection with the news about the flight tests of a prosppective missile. However, it quickly became clear that the latest news had nothing to do with the current R&D. TASS reported on the flight tests of an unknown type of rocket at the end of June. According to his source, in the middle of the month at the Plesetsk test site, the launch of the “newest intercontinental ballistic missile” developed at MIT took place. The event was a success. Details of these tests were not reported. The developer organization and the Ministry of Defense did not comment on the news.

In a note about the launch, TASS recalled previous news on the Kedr research project - without indicating any connection between this project and the latest tests. However, soon in the specialized media, Russian-speaking and foreign, publications appeared in which the prototype for recent tests was identified with the Kedr ICBM. However, some of these publications have an ambiguous reputation, which explains the appearance of such "sensations".

Obviously, the Kedr missile system could not be tested in June 2021. Development work on this product will begin no earlier than 2023, and, therefore, flight tests will start only in the second half of the decade. Testing new ideas and solutions for the Kedr research project using an experimental rocket of the existing model is also unlikely.

Also, in the wake of the TASS message, other versions appeared. More authoritative publications and blogs have suggested that one of the upgraded types of missile could have been tested. ROC was mentioned with the codes "Aspen-RV" and "Siren-M". However, these versions had not received official confirmation.

Thus, reports of the recent start of flight tests of the Kedr product turned out to be premature and ahead of the work schedule by about half a decade. However, a promising project has already been launched. In the coming years, it will pass the research stage, and no later than 2024, a full-fledged development is expected to start, followed by the manufacture and testing of prototype rockets.

The Kedr project is being carried out with an eye to the medium and long term, and therefore the Strategic Missile Forces and industry have the opportunity not to rush things. The deadlines for the implementation of the project and the adoption of missiles into service are determined taking into account the capabilities of the industry, as well as the current and future needs of the troops. In other words, "Kedr" will go into series and enter the troops in due time - at the time when it is needed by the Strategic Missile Forces.

Currently, the Russian Strategic Missile Forces operate several types of solid-propellant ICBMs. The oldest product is the RT-2PM Topol, which was put into service in the late eighties. Recently, the domestic press reported that in 2024 the last complexes of this type will be withdrawn from service due to the exhaustion of the resource and replacement with modern models.

In 2000, the upgraded Topol-M complex in a mine design entered service. The mobile version began to enter the troops later. According to known data, in the early 1910s, the army stopped purchasing Topol-M ICBMs and launched full-scale production of newer RS-24 Yars products for mine and mobile complexes. Deliveries of Yars are still ongoing, and now these missiles are one of the main weapons of the Strategic Missile Forces.

It is easy to calculate that by 2030 the age of the newest Topol-M missiles and the oldest Yars will reach the level of 20 years. In this regard, measures will be needed to extend the resource or complete replacement of obsolete products. And it is during this period, as reported, that the promising Kedr complex of the same class will be ready for the series.

Accordingly, at the beginning of the next decade, the Strategic Missile Forces will be able to completely abandon the outdated Topol-M and begin the process of replacing not the newest Yars. Based on the results of these events, the newest "Kedr" will become the main light missile in the troops. It will have advantages, at least in the form of novelty and the ability to remain in service for the next few decades.

In addition, by the time the "Kedr" appears, the R&D on the "Sarmatian" theme will be completed. Thanks to this, the Strategic Missile Forces will begin to receive new heavy-class ICBMs capable of carrying conventional warheads and hypersonic gliders. As a result, over the next 15-20 years, a full-fledged and full-scale re-equipment of the missile forces with modern samples for that period will be carried out.

The news about the start of work on a promising strategic missile naturally attracted attention and even caused some excitement, both here and abroad. In addition, they provoked the appearance of messages that should have been expected only in a few years. It should also be noted numerous attempts to predict what the new missile system will be like.

What will be the results of the current research project "Kedr" and the subsequent R&D, is not yet known. At the same time, it is clear that this project is being worked out with an eye to the distant future - a new type of missile systems will have to serve from the thirties and at least until the middle of the century. This imposes special requirements on the project and poses complex tasks for its developers, the solution of which takes a lot of time. But such efforts and expectations will fully justify themselves, and the systematic development of the Strategic Missile Forces will continue.