Afghanistan - Trump - 2019
Trump, during his White House discussion with Pakistani Prime Imran Khan, declared that if he wanted to win the war in Afghanistan "I could win it in a week. I just don't want to kill 10 million people." The president warned that Afghanistan “would be wiped off the face of the Earth. It would be gone. It would be over, literally in 10 days. I don’t want to go that route.” There has never been an accurate population census taken in Afghanistan, but Afghanistan’s population is estimated at 31 million people.
The United States and Pakistan were jointly seeking a way to end the war in Afghanistan, U.S. President Donald Trump said alongside Khan in the Oval Office on 22 July 2019. “We’re working with Pakistan and others on getting an agreement signed” with the Taliban while the United States continues to “very slowly and very safely” reduce the number of its troops in Afghanistan, said Trump during his initial meeting with Khan at the White House.
The Pakistani prime minister declared “this is the closest we’ve been to a peace deal in Afghanistan. There’s no military solution in Afghanistan.” In the coming days, Khan added, there were hopes of getting “the Taliban to speak to the Afghan government.” Khan complimented Trump for his efforts, saying “he has forced people to end the war, to have a settlement” adding Pakistan has an important role to play as it shares a 2,400-kilometer border with Afghanistan. “We desperately want peace,” declared Khan. Khan requested the meeting with Trump to stress the need for a political solution to the protracted war in Afghanistan. Khan had long campaigned against the use of U.S. military force to resolve the conflict even before he came to power after last year’s elections in Pakistan.
Ahead of meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on 22 July 2019, Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that he could win the war in Afghanistan in just one week if he wanted to. Trump said he won’t do that because he doesn’t want millions to die. This was not a single throw-away phrase, but a theme to which Trump repeatedly returned in his press availability. And this threat to use nuclear weapons was not made in a vacuum, but rather in the context of negotiations with the Taliban and Pakistan to complete the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan. The nuclear options was offered as an alternative to a satisfactory conclusion to these negotiations.
"We're not fighting a war. If we wanted to fight a war in Afghanistan and win it, I could win that war in a week. I just don't want to kill 10 million people. Does that make sense to you? I don't want to kill 10 million people. I have plans on Afghanistan that, if I wanted to win that war, Afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the Earth. It would be gone. It would be over in — literally, in 10 days. And I don't want to do—I don't want to go that route.... But if we wanted to, we could win that war. I have a plan that would win that war in a very short period of time....
"I think we'll have some very good answers on Afghanistan, very quickly.... Pakistan was not doing anything for us. They were really, I think, subversive. They were going against us....
"... we're negotiating with the Taliban. And we are doing, I think, very well in that regard. Again, it's something that we could do— we could go one of two ways: We could do a number the likes of which they've never seen before, and win it very quickly. I don't want to do that.... I don't want to do that, because you're talking about millions of people, and I don't want to do that....
" We've been there for 19 years, and we've acted as policemen, not soldiers. And again, if we wanted to be soldiers, it would be over in 10 days. One week to 10 days, if we wanted to. But I have not chosen that. Why are we—why would we kill millions of people? It wouldn't be fair. In terms of humanity, it wouldn't be fair. So we're doing very well, and I think that Pakistan is going to be a big help....
"I think Pakistan can do tremendous amount against—with respect to Afghanistan. They didn't do it, and I don't blame them, because they were dealing with the wrong President. ... I think Pakistan could have done a lot, but they chose not to. And that's because they did not respect U.S. leadership."
Use of nuclear weapons against the country would be the only way of reaching such a high death count in such a short amount of time. It is certainly plausible that the US military had developed such a plan in response to a Presidential request. Trump was known to have an itchy trigger finger when it came to the big one.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff had just published [and then removed from public access] a new edition of their official doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons - Joint Publication 3-72, Nuclear Operations, June 11, 2019. "Nuclear forces must be prepared to achieve the strategic objectives defined by the President. Strategic deterrence does not stop once a conflict has started but continues throughout the entire range of military operations. The application of nuclear and/or conventional deterrence operations during all phases of planning and execution is critical to influence an adversary’s decision-making process, regardless of the stage of conflict.
"US forces, including nuclear forces, provide the President with various escalation control options to achieve military objectives and strategic goals with the minimum use of force. Escalation control options support military objectives, demonstrating US capability and resolve to counter a threat’s actions. These options should also avoid creating potential incentives for further escalation, and the threats must understand or perceive when and why the US would escalate.
"US nuclear forces provide the means to apply force to a broad range of targets in a time and manner chosen by the President. Nuclear forces are prepared to execute preplanned options, adaptively planned options, or a combination of options to achieve national security objectives prescribed by the President....
"Using nuclear weapons could create conditions for decisive results... "
Afghanistan's urban population for 2019 was 9,797,274, just shy of the ten million mumber cited by Trump. Urban population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using World Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects. In 2019, 25.75 percent of Afghanistan's total population lived in urban areas and cities. More than 70 percent of the urban population is concentrated in six cities: Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-ISharif, Jalalabad and Kunduz.
So the 10,000,000 number cited by Trump seems not to be a random choice, but rather the answer to the question "how many would be killed if we just nuked Afghanistan?" Ten million is the point at which the targeteers would run out of urban targets, and any further application of nuclear firepower would be doing little more than bouncing the rubble out in the boondocks.
The comment drew a stiff response from Afghanistan’s presidential palace which demanded his comments be clarified. The Afghan government asked for clarification after Trump's statement that "Afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the earth." Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's office issued a statement asking for clarification, saying Afghanistan will never "allow any foreign power to determine its fate." The government of President Ashraf Ghani noted that Afghanistan expected its relationship with the United States to be “grounded on common interests and mutual respect.” Ghani’s government, facing a bruising re-election campaign this fall, indicated that it did not intend to let the matter drop. “The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan will keep the Afghan public posted on the issue,” its statement said.
Rangin Dadfar Spanta, a national security adviser for Former President Hamid Karzai, told reporters that Trump’s words were “a terrible, racist political message.” He added “There is no need to brag that you can kill 10 million Afghans”.
The New York Times reported that "On the street and on social media, ordinary Afghans responded with a mix of fury and bewilderment. “He is not a sane person,” Khan Ali, 35, a street vendor, said of Mr. Trump. Mohammad Arif, 50, a shoemaker, said of the president’s comments: “This is in no way possible. Trump has a kind of madness.”"
Most Afghan presidential candidates and former President Hamid Karzai also slammed Trump for his controversial statement. Karzai told VOA the American president's statement came from a "criminal mindset" and showed "contempt" toward Afghanistan and the Afghan people.
Politicians and the public in the war-ravaged country continue to express their anger at Trump for claiming his military plan, if executed, could win the Afghan war within 10 days, killing 10 million people and wiping Afghanistan "off the face of the Earth." Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a presidential hopeful and former anti-American warlord, denounced Trump's assertions while addressing thousands of his supporters in Kabul. The crowd of fewer than 10,000 chanted "Death to America, Death to Trump" during the speech. "We ask Mr. Trump that if you have the courage and strength, and you believe in your military power, then test it against [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, and not the oppressed Afghans," Hekmatyar said. "The same Putin who is said to have meddled in America's election, enabling you [Trump] to reach the White House to become the president," Hekmatyar went on to mock Trump.
When asked for her comments about Afghan outrage over Trump's remarks, State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said 25 July 2019 that she would remind Afghans about the large number of troops from the U.S. and NATO allies who have been killed in Afghanistan. "Not just the number of lives lost but the billions of dollars that have spent there. ... So I think that the people of Afghanistan should know that for almost 20 years, Americans have lost their lives and have spent their hard-earned taxpayer money to see the people of Afghanistan have a choice for their own future," Morgan told reporters. "And that commitment has not been a small commitment. That has been a vast and sweeping commitment by the American people," she emphasized.
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