The Next Arms Race
Edited by Mr. Henry D. Sokolski.
July 2012
527 Pages
Brief Synopsis
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (New START) agreement was reached in 2011, and both Russia and the United States are bringing nuclear strategic warhead deployments down to roughly 1,500 on each side. In the next round of strategic arms reduction talks, though, U.S. officials hope to cut far deeper; perhaps as low as several hundred warheads on each side—numbers that approach what other nuclear weapons states, such as France, China, Israel, India, and Pakistan either have or will soon possess. This, then, raises the question of how compatible such reductions might be with the nuclear activities of other states. How might Russia view the nuclear and military modernization activities of China? How might the continuing nuclear and military competition between Pakistan and India play out? What might the nuclear dynamics be between North and South Korea, Japan, and China? What might other states interested in developing a nuclear weapons option of their own make of the way the superpowers have so far dealt with the nuclear programs in India, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and North Korea? Are "peaceful" nuclear competitions in the Middle and Far East where states build up civilian nuclear programs to help them develop nuclear weapons options inevitable? What, beyond current nuclear control efforts, might help to reduce such nuclear threats? Each of these questions and more are examined with precision in The Next Arms Race.
Contents
Foreword
1. Overview
Henry D. Sokolski
PART I: ASIA
2. Asian Drivers of Russia’s Nuclear Force Posture
Jacob W. Kipp
3. China’s Strategic Forces in the 21st Century: The People’s Liberation Army’s Changing Nuclear Doctrine and Force Posture
Michael Mazza and Dan Blumenthal
4. Plutonium, Proliferation and Radioactive-waste Politics in East Asia
Frank von Hippel
5. China and the Emerging Strategic Competition in Aerospace Power
Mark Stokes and Ian Easton
PART II: MIDDLE EAST
6. The Middle East’s Nuclear Future
Richard L. Russell
7. Alternative Proliferation Futures for North Africa
Bruno Tertrais
8. Casting a Blind Eye: Kissinger and Nixon Finesse Israel’s Bomb
Victor Gilinsky
PART III: SOUTH ASIA
9. Nuclear Weapons Stability or Anarchy in the 21st Century: China, India, and Pakistan
Thomas W. Graham
10. Nuclear Missile-Related Risks in South Asia
R. N. Ganesh
11. Prospects for Indian and Pakistani Arms Control
Feroz Hassan Khan
PART IV: POST-COLD WAR MILITARY SCIENCE AND ARMS CONTROL
12. To What Extent Can Precision Conventional Technologies Substitute for Nuclear Weapons?
Stephen J. Lukasik
13. Missiles for Peace
Henry D. Sokolski
14. Missile Defense and Arms Control
Jeff Kueter
15. A Hardheaded Guide to Nuclear Controls
Henry D. Sokolski
About the Contributors
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