Forecasting Zero: U.S. Nuclear History and the Low Probability of Disarmament
Authored by Jonathan Pearl.
November 2011
71 Pages
Brief Synopsis
A vigorous debate is occurring among American elites with respect to whether and when the United States should relinquish its nuclear weapons. Bolstering hopes for tangible results is that a U.S. President is again publicly and forcefully supporting disarmament. While this debate, which addresses both technical and political factors related to abolition, may be the most serious one of its kind since the dawn of the nuclear age, the future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy remains uncertain. The general approach advanced today in U.S. policy circles largely hews, after all, to the logic of the past 65 years: arms control and nonproliferation now, disarmament at an undetermined time in the future. Moreover, several conceptual and strategic barriers continue to block serious progress toward U.S. disarmament. By situating the current pro-disarmament rhetoric in this larger historical and strategic context, this monograph argues that there is reason to doubt whether the current push for disarmament will produce meaningful and lasting results.
Summary
When four luminaries of U.S. policymaking—Cold Warriors, all—penned a 2007 op-ed calling for global nuclear disarmament, a shock wave emanated through the policy community in Washington and abroad. Had age or the stress of public life finally taken its toll on these elder statesmen? How could the goal of disarmament be practically achieved? Was their plea, in fact, a cynical ploy to strengthen a conventionally dominant United States? Were not communist sympathizers, naïve world government types, or a periodically randy anti-nuclear movement the only ones who took disarmament seriously? Perhaps most important, did their statement reflect a convergence of sentiment in the United States in favor of abolition? Might the United States abolish nuclear weapons in our lifetime?
President Barack Obama’s open support for nuclear abolition and his efforts to decrease the number and role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security policy have led many to believe that the United States will one day shed its nuclear arsenal. Yet the future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy is uncertain. Contrary to popular belief, the general approach being advanced today by the Obama administration is strikingly similar to mainstream proposals of the past 65 years: arms control and nonproliferation now, disarmament at an undetermined point in the future. Meanwhile, numerous factors continue to militate against abolition, including a growing Pakistani arsenal and new sources of instability in the Middle East. Indeed, just as the perceived need for abolition may be growing, so may the difficulty of achieving it.
This monograph draws upon history and the present context to argue that observers should temper their expectations about the prospects for U.S. nuclear disarmament. The first section traces the rise, decline, and rebirth of disarmament as a central focus of U.S. policy, from the immediate postwar period to the fall of the Soviet Union. The second section examines the steady decline of support for disarmament in the post-Cold War era from 1991-2007. The third section explores the period from 2007 to 2009, during which disarmament gained significant political traction among American elites. The fourth section addresses the Obama administration’s nuclear policy, juxtaposing the President’s lofty goal of disarmament with the remaining obstacles to its achievement. The fifth section provides conclusions reached by the author.
Access Full Report [PDF]: Forecasting Zero: U.S. Nuclear History and the Low Probability of Disarmament
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
