Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

CHAPTER 1

MEDICAL THREAT AND NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL WARFARE

1-1. General

a. Since World War II, the Soviet Union has represented the principal threat to the national security interests of the US. During this period, the military capability of the Soviet Armed Forces grew enormously. Starting in the later years of the 1980's, the international security environment has undergone rapid, fundamental, and revolutionary changes. The Soviet Union has disintegrated with the collapse of Soviet communism as a viable economic and political system. The Warsaw Pact has dissolved as a political and military entity. The central Soviet government has been replaced by the Commonwealth of Independent Republics (CIR), currently dominated by the Russian Republic. The cohesion of Soviet strategic military capability has been fractured by--

• The dissolution of central Soviet control.
• The formation of the CIR.
• The unpredictability associated with uncertain loyalties and low morale.

The ultimate outcome of these events in terms of US national security interests is unclear. The military capabilities of independent republics like Russia, Ukrainia, Kazakhstan, and Byelorus remain formidable. The capabilities include strategic nuclear and impressive conventional, biological, and chemical warfighting capabilities.

b. From a global perspective, the economic power and influence of developing and newly industrialized nations will continue to grow. Centers of power (global or regional) cannot be measured solely in military terms. Nation states will pursue their own political, ideological, and economic interests; they may become engaged in director indirect competition and conflict with the US. More nations have acquired significant numbers of modern, lethal, combat weapon systems; developed very capable armed forces; and become more assertive in international affairs. In the absence of a single, credible, coercive threat, old rivalries and long repressed territorial ambitions will resurface, causing increased tensions in many regions. Political, economic, and social instability and religious, cultural, and economic competition will continue to erode the influence of the US over the rest of the world. This erosion will also reduce the US influence of traditional regional powers over their neighbors. This environment will encourage the continued development, or acquisition, of modern armed forces and equipment by less influential nations, including the spread of NBC weapons; thus raising the potential for internal conflict and armed confrontations in developing regions of the world.

1-2. Medical Threat

a. Medical threat is the composite of all ongoing or potential enemy actions and environmental conditions that will reduce combat effectiveness through wounding, injuring, causing disease, and/or degrading performance. Soldiers are the targets of these threats. Weapons or environmental conditions that will generate wounded, injured, and sick soldiers, beyond the capability of the HSS system to provide timely medical care from available resources, are considered major medical threats. Weapons or environmental conditions that produce qualitatively different wound or disease processes are also major medical threats. Table 1-1 presents medical threats from both environmental and adversary sources. Elements of medical threat are used to define the vulnerability of and the risk to the soldier associated with deployment outside the US.

b. Enemy combat operations that disrupt HSS operations, or threaten the HSS organizations survival are considered threats to the medical mission. These threats, however, are not considered to be "medical threats".

1-3. Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threat--The Health Services Perspective

a. Nuclear Weapons Threat. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the number of countries with known nuclear capable military forces has almost doubled. Available information suggests that a number of countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa may have nuclear weapons capability within the next decade. Table 1-2 lists those countries known to have, or suspected of possessing, nuclear weapons. Planners can expect a minimum of 10 to 20 percent casualties within a division- sized force that has experienced a nuclear strike. In addition to casualties, a nuclear weapon detonation can generate an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that will cause catastrophic failures of electronic equipment components.