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Nuclear Proliferation Cited as Top Security Concern

10 November 2005

Policymakers discuss ways to prevent spread of nuclear weapons

By Ryan P. Callanan
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington –- Threat of nuclear proliferation should be the top security concern for the international community, says Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

He discussed some problems and goals of the IAEA at the November 7-8 Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference in Washington.

Speaking at the conference November 7, ElBaradei said one of the main weaknesses of the IAEA is the ineffectiveness of nuclear verification.  The annual budget of the IAEA is only $120 million, and the agency funds just 650 inspectors to work at more than 900 nuclear facilities in 71 countries, he said.  Most countries, ElBaradei said, allow inspectors to look only into declared activities.  Only about 70 countries have accepted the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’s Additional Protocol, which allows for some inspections to look into undeclared activities.

One of ElBaradei’s goals for the IAEA is to institute a time-limited moratorium on new uranium enrichment and plutonium separation facilities.  He also said he will encourage the United Nations Security Council to be more aggressive in its response to countries that violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

“To be effective, the U.N. Security Council must be ready at all times to engage, in order to cope with emerging threats to international peace and security,” ElBaradei said.

For additional information on the NPT, see the State Department electronic journal, Today’s Nuclear Equation.

BUSH ADMINISTRATION NONPROLIFERATION POLICY

Robert Joseph, under secretary of state for arms control and international security, also speaking November 7, outlined the Bush administration’s strategy on nuclear nonproliferation during his keynote address at the conference.  He said that the NPT has a weakness because it allows countries to develop nuclear weapons under the guise of a peaceful nuclear energy program.

The Bush administration’s proposal, according to Joseph, is to create a virtual fuel bank for the world.  Working as an intermediary, the IAEA would guarantee a constant flow of nuclear fissile material by connecting buyers and sellers in times of market flux, he said.

The market for fissile material is providing the needed level of supplies at this time, but a guaranteed supply is necessary to convince states that a domestic reprocessing program is unnecessary, he said.  Removing the need for domestic reprocessing programs would make it very difficult for rogue states to hide their intentions.  The proposal also would mandate that all spent fuel be returned to the donor state, so that it could not be enriched to make nuclear weapons.

The text of Joseph’s remarks is available on the State Department Web site.

BALANCING SECURITY AND ENERGY NEEDS

Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman is a strong proponent of President Bush’s proposal to create a virtual fuel bank.  He addressed the conference on the need to balance nonproliferation security measures with the nuclear energy needs of developing nations.

The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, Bodman said, estimates that there will be a 50 percent increase in energy use around the world by 2025, with more than half of that growth coming in the world’s emerging economies.

“The need for peaceful nuclear power all over the globe has never been more apparent, while at the same time, the proliferation threat posed by nuclear materials and technology has never been more grave,” said Bodman.

The energy secretary said President Bush’s proposal makes nuclear energy available to developing nations while at the same time aiding nonproliferation efforts.  (See related article.)

IRAN AND NORTH KOREA

Ariel Levite, of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, spoke about the concealment and deception that has been a part of Iran’s nuclear program during a panel discussion titled “The Iranian Stalemate.”  He also said that if Iran became a nuclear power, other Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia would be threatened and,in turn, might become nuclear powers.  Levite said that the international community must unite to pressure Iran into halting its nuclear program.

Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University spoke at a November 8  panel discussion on North Korea, describing his tour of part of the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon.  He said he suspected that the North Korean government allowed him to see the facilities as a way for them to show the United States that they have nuclear weapons.  He said that North Korea has removed 8,000 spent fuel rods from the facility, and has increased efficency in reprocesssing by 30 percent.  (See U.S. Policy Toward North Korea.)

“We have to assume that the North Koreans can and have made at least a few simple nuclear weapons,” Hecker said.

COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA

The Nunn-Lugar program is one of the main ways in which the United States is working with Russia on nonproliferation issues.  The program provides U.S. funding for Russia to use in its nonproliferation efforts.  Both Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana and former Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia spoke November 8 at the conference.  The funding is used to destroy some fissile material and to secure the rest.  So far, 86 percent of Russian nuclear sites have improved security, and two Russian reactors are scheduled to shut down by 2008, said Linton Brooks, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration.  But Nunn said much work remains to destroy or secure fissile material in Russia.

“We have made progress, but I still think that this is the greatest threat we face as a nation,” said Nunn.  (See related article.)

For additional information on U.S. policy, see Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

More information about the conference is available on Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Web site.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)