DATE=JANUARY 3, 1998
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00598 SHORT # 1
TITLE= THE THREAT OF PROLIFERATION
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT= INSERTS AVAILABLE FROM AUDIO SERVICES
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.
THIS WEEK, "THE THREAT OF PROLIFERATION." HERE
IS YOUR HOST, --------.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. MORE THAN 25
COUNTRIES HAVE -- OR MAY BE DEVELOPING --
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND THE MEANS TO
DELIVER THEM. ROGUE NATIONS LIKE IRAN, IRAQ,
AND LIBYA ARE WORKING TO OBTAIN NUCLEAR,
BIOLOGICAL OR CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY ANY MEANS.
TERRORIST GROUPS ARE ALSO SEEKING SUCH WEAPONS.
THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES ARE TRYING TO
COUNTER THIS THREAT.
GARY MILHOLLIN IS DIRECTOR OF THE WISCONSIN
PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL. HE SAYS THAT
IRAQ SHOWS HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO DETECT AND
STOP A COUNTRY THAT IS DETERMINED TO BUILD
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
MILHOLLIN: THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY INSPECTED
IRAQ BEFORE THE [GULF] WAR AND CITED IRAQ AS ONE
OF ITS BEST PUPILS. THE IRAQIS GOT STARS ACROSS
THE PAGE FOR COMPLYING WITH ALL OF THE DEMANDS
OF THE INSPECTORS, BUT THE INSPECTORS WERE ONLY
INSPECTING SITES THAT IRAQ HAD DECLARED. AND SO
YOU LITERALLY HAD A CASE WHERE THE INSPECTORS
WERE GOING TO BUILDING "A" AND THE IRAQIS WERE
ACTUALLY RUNNING A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM IN
BUILDING "B." SO YOU HAVE TO BE VERY SKEPTICAL
OF THE TENDENCY TO BELIEVE THAT YOU HAVE
DISCOVERED EVERYTHING, ESPECIALLY NOW THAT
SADDAM HAS SET UP WHAT AMOUNTS TO SANCTUARIES.
HE'S CLAIMING THAT THESE LARGE INSTALLATIONS ARE
"PRESIDENTIAL SITES" AND HE'S BARRED INSPECTORS.
AND SO THE BIG QUESTION FACING US IN IRAQ IS
WHETHER WE ARE GOING TO LET THAT GO BY, WHETHER
WE ARE GOING TO ACCEPT THE IDEA THAT IRAQ HAS
SANCTUARIES. IF WE DO, IT MEANS THAT HE'S GOING
TO BE FREE, IN EFFECT, TO RECONSTITUTE ALL OF
HIS PROGRAMS.
HOST: PATRICK CLAWSON IS DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT THE
WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. HE
SAYS THAT A BIG PROBLEM IS THAT TECHNOLOGIES
WITH LEGITIMATE CIVILIAN USES CAN ALSO BE USED
TO MAKE WEAPONS.
CLAWSON: AS THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE U-N SPECIAL
COMMISSION -- UNSCOM -- ROLF EKEUS, HAS
COMMENTED, EVEN IF UNSCOM WERE TOTALLY
SUCCESSFUL IN ITS TASK IN IRAQ, THAT STILL THE
IRAQIS WOULD RETAIN THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THEY NEED
IN ORDER TO RECONSTITUTE THEIR PROGRAM AND THAT
MUCH OF THE EQUIPMENT THAT THEY WOULD NEED TO
RECONSTITUTE AT LEAST THEIR CHEMICAL AND
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS ARE ITEMS WHICH HAVE
LEGITIMATE USES. FOR INSTANCE, MAKING PESTICIDES
HAS CERTAIN SIMILARITIES WITH SOME OF THE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS. AS A RESULT, MR. EKEUS HAS
ARGUED THAT IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO RECONSTITUTE
AT LEAST ITS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
WITHIN A PERIOD OF SOME MONTHS IF THE
INSPECTIONS WERE TO END, EVEN IF THE INSPECTORS
HAD BEEN TOTALLY SUCCESSFUL IN DETECTING ALL OF
THE ACTIVITIES DURING THE COURSE OF THEIR
INSPECTIONS.
HOST: GARY MILHOLLIN SAYS THERE ARE WAYS TO IMPEDE
EFFORTS BY ROGUE STATES TO ACQUIRE WEAPONS OF
MASS DESTRUCTION.
MILHOLLIN: THE LESSON OF IRAQ IS INTERESTING. THE IRAQIS
WERE HELD UP IN THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM ON SEVERAL
FRONTS BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T BUY THINGS. THE
INTERNATIONAL REGIMES FOR EXPORT CONTROL WERE
SUCH THAT THE IRAQIS HAD TO REVERSE ENGINEER
THINGS. THEY HAD TO UPGRADE LOWER PERFORMING
ITEMS THAT THEY COULD BUY. THEY HAD TROUBLE WITH
QUALITY CONTROL. THEY HAD TO REINVENT THINGS
THAT WERE SORT OF OLD HAT IN OTHER COUNTRIES
BUT, IF NO ONE WOULD HELP THEM, THEY REALLY HAD
TO SORT OF REINVENT EVERYTHING THEMSELVES. IT
TOOK A LONG TIME AND FORTUNATELY SADDAM MADE THE
BLUNDER OF INVADING KUWAIT BEFORE HE HAD REACHED
THE FINISH LINE. SO WHAT WE CAN DO IS WE CAN
MAKE IT DIFFICULT, TIME-CONSUMING AND EXPENSIVE
FOR THESE COUNTRIES TO DO THIS, AND HOPE THAT
THERE WILL BE A POLITICAL BREAKTHROUGH BEFORE
THEY GET TO THE POINT WHERE THEY SUCCEED.
HOST: PATRICK CLAWSON FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE
FOR NEAR EAST POLICY SAYS THAT SUCH DELAYING
TACTICS MAY BE THE MOST FEASIBLE MEANS OF
KEEPING COUNTRIES LIKE IRAQ AND IRAN FROM
OBTAINING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. FOR "ON
THE LINE," THIS IS -------.
" YOU'VE BEEN LISTENING TO "ON THE LINE" -- A
DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS IS -------.
31-Dec-97 4:07 PM EST (2107 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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