08 January 1998
U.S. AND 'GREAT GAME': TWO RIVALS SCORE, ONE TEAMMATE DISGRUNTLED
The foreign media contended that, in the past few weeks, Iran and China have dealt major setbacks to U.S. interests in the energy-rich countries bordering the Caspian Sea. Observers judged that the Dec. 29 opening of a pipeline sending Turkmenistan's natural gas through Iran signaled the failure of Washington's attempts to keep Tehran out of the game in the region with the world's largest untapped oil and gas resources. "Tehran," Rome's left-leaning, influential La Repubblica concluded, "has found a back door onto the playing field from which the U.S. would like to exclude it.... The big American companies are no longer rulers of the oil game." New Delhi's centrist Hindu, in turn, said that the deal on a pipeline linking Kazakhstan and China's western province of Xinjiang and China's "snatching away some major oil deals" from U.S. energy companies in Central Asia made evident that Beijing plans to be a prominent player and "shape the future balance of power in the region." In another worrisome development, over the past two months some Azerbaijani commentators-- who in the summer and fall could not contain their delight with the growing closeness between Washington and Baku--questioned the value of partnership with the U.S. in light of what they insist is the Clinton administration's reluctance to push Congress to repeal legislation they believe hurts Azerbaijan. Following are significant views on Caspian Sea developments: 'IRAN RISING'--Analysts noted that, although the Turkemenistan-Iran pipeline breaks Russia's century-old monopoly of energy delivery from the CIS republics, it also provides a more efficient route than U.S.- backed pipelines that would traverse Azerbaijan, Georgia and then Ceyhan in Turkey. Official Tehran TV lost no time in trumpeting what it said was the widespread perception that inauguration of its pipeline was a "victory of the independent willpower of Iran and Turkmenistan over the demands of great powers, especially America." Iran's successful overture in the "Great Game" prompted speculation among the majority of pundits that a change in the U.S. policy of containing Tehran is in the offing, since, according to right-of- center Frankfurter Allgemeine, Washington has no interest in seeing "Iran's weight increasing" in the Caspian Sea region at the expense of the U.S. Energy lobbies in the U.S., predicted independent Catholic De Standaard of Brussels, will be pushing for "normalization of relations with Tehran." They will argue, the daily added, that "it is better to do business with Iran in order to get a hand in the largest part of the Caspian resources." BAKU SULKING--Passage this autumn of U.S. foreign appropriations bill Section 907, with provisions denying some types of U.S. aid to Baku and a measure that provides $12.5 in aid to the victims of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, stuck in the craws of several Azerbaijani editorialists. The conviction among these writers was that Azerbaijan has yet to see any economic or political benefits from its pro-U.S. tilt and its willingness to sign energy deals with U.S. companies. Relations with Russia and Iran remain "tense," they remarked, and Azerbaijan's wishes to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in its favor have been dashed, just as they were in the days of Russian patronage. They feared that even the projected humanitarian U.S. aid to that enclave could lead to its being recognized as "an independent state." In the words of opposition Yeni Musavat, "U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan does not differ very much from Russia's policy," since both fail to "recognize Armenia as an aggressor state" in the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. If Azerbaijan wants to secure better treatment from Washington, the paper declared, the parliament "must take a firm stand and adopt a resolution banning participation of U.S. companies in oil contracts." Yerevan's official Respublika Armenia was already convinced that Baku officials "speak about the presence of multibillion-dollar reserves of oil" as a weapon to persuade "the great and not so great powers" to side with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh. RUSSIA RETREATING--Opinion-makers tended to portray Russia as the one suffering the biggest loss in the rush by its former republics to find alternative outlets for their wealth. In Moscow, the press' concern over what one columnist described as the U.S.' "adding part of the former Soviet Union to the sphere of America's vital interests" focused on the undermining of Russia's influence along its vulnerable southern flank. Reformist Izvestia warned that pipelines through Turkey, for instance, would escalate the "drift of several post-Soviet republics to Ankara, away from Moscow. That would only add to 'the bow of instability,'" the paper held. A new daily, reformist Russkiy Telegraf, admitted that "the time of easy contracts has come to an end. Russia now has competitors.... It is obvious that in the foreseeable future the CIS countries (with the exception of Belarus) will no doubt distance themselves from Russia more and more." Frankfurter Allgemeine was willing to declare Russia's sway over the CIS already over: "The only reliable Russian ally in the region will now be Armenia...and the more or less Bolshevist-ruled Belarus," it pointed out. "It is time to declare the end of the CIS." This survey is based on 45 reports from 14 countries, Nov. 14-Jan. 8. EDITOR: Mildred Sola NeelyTo Go Directly To Quotes By Region, Click Below EUROPE RUSSIA: "The Route For Azerbaijani Oil" Moscow's reformist Russkiy Telegraf said (12/30) in a piece by Andrey Ivanov: "The route to be taken by the bulk of Azerbaijani oil, revenue from which may run into hundreds of millions of dollars a year, will be determined in 1998. Furthermore, no investments are required of Russia. However, the time of easy contracts has come to an end. Russia now has competitors, and the Russian route's chances in this contest are by no means 100-percent certain.... Foreign companies which are extracting oil in the Caspian are also looking at the problem of the choice of a route for the Azerbaijani oil from the viewpoint of geopolitics. This primarily means the Americans, who will scarcely agree to Russia controlling its delivery to world markets. That is why they are prepared to fund the construction of a bypass pipeline. The Central Asian states themselves have been using this approach recently. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are also supporting projects for a Turkish route for their oil exports. They are being echoed by Georgia, since the implementation of this option promises to bring it a big profit.... It is obvious that in the foreseeable future the CIS countries (with the exception of Belarus) will no doubt distance themselves from Russia more and more. It is extremely important for Russia to realize this, because only then can the appropriate measures be taken to defend national interests." "Energy Rivalry Forces U.S. Into Cooperation With Iran" Mekhman Gafarly stated in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/18): "Western capital in the form of major European oil and gas companies has taken the upper hand over Washington's political ambition. The Americans have themselves gradually been easing sanctions against Iran since last June's elections in that country.... Contrary to Washington's striving for undivided control of the world's oil and gas market, things have turned out differently, making it seek a full contact with Iran." "Business Is Business" Reformist Izvestia (12/3) ran an article by Stanislav Kondrashov: "Business is business. Adding part of the former Soviet Union to the sphere of America's vital interests has been a shot in the arm for its oil industry. If it has any luck in the Caspian region, U.S. business will prod Washington to alter its policy for Iran so it can build an oil pipeline via its territory.... For Russia a pipeline through Turkey means not only financial losses but an escalated drift of several post-Soviet republics to Ankara, away from Moscow. That would only add to 'the bow of instability.'' "Ashgabat Unafraid Of Causing U.S. Anger" Vladimir Mikhailov and Georgy Smolnikov wrote in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/6): "Obviously, Turkmenistan is glad to have Iran as a strong and influential partner. On its part, Iran has actively been using the northern neighbor as a foreign-trade window, one of very few windows that have been open to it in a long time. Common economic and political interests determine similarity in their positions on the status of the Caspian Sea, the construction of oil and gas pipelines, and a settlement of the Afghanistan crisis. Importantly, the Republic of Turkmenistan, as a neutral country, is unafraid of causing the displeasure of the powerful and influential United States." "Nazarbayev Speaks With Turkish Accent" Melor Sturua filed from Minneapolis for reformist Izvestia (11/20) about the talks President Nazarbayev had with President Clinton and Vice President Gore: "Washington wants the Kazakh leader to participate in isolating Iran economically. Clinton and Gore tried to persuade their guest to accept their plan and start talking with a Turkish accent. Nazarbayev insisted on Kazakh but somehow 'Turkish notes' began sneaking into his speech, anyway." TURKEY: "U.S. Debate On Iran And How It Affects Turkey" Readers of liberal Cumhuriyet saw this by Ergun Balci (1/6): "The debate on Iran in the United States is something in Turkey's interest. There are a number of high level officials in the American administration, including Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and Stuart Eizenstat, who support the idea of abolishing the D'Amato Act. They point to the fact that if the act is implemented, it will end up with measures against France and Russia, and alienate the United States from its Western allies. This debate is very much in Turkey's interest, because if the D'Amato act is not implemented, Iran will become a suitable route for pipelines, and that will make the Baku- Ceyhan route less attractive. In that regard, the hardliners in Washington are in fact working for Turkey's interests, too. Washington's support for Baku-Ceyhan will continue until U.S.-Iran relations tend to normalize." ARMENIA: "Avoiding Oil Blackmail On The Part Of Baku" This commentary by K. Topchyan ran in official Respublika Armenia(12/27), "One should once again recall that there are at least two main factors necessary for more or less normal transportation of Caspian oil to the world market. The first is the existence of the huge quantity of oil which high-ranking Baku politicians and experts have been trumpeting about for years already. The recent fuss over the Karabakh deposit, which turned out not to have a gram of oil in it, should serve seriously to put on their guard all the countries and companies which plan to invest millions and billions of dollars in developing and transporting Azerbaijan's Caspian oil. "One gets the impression that the longer the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict drags on, the louder Heydar Aliyev and his team speak about the presence of multibillion reserves of oil. This is not the first time that official Baku has tried to use this to curry favor with the great and not so great powers over the question of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict according to the Azerbaijani scenario. However, the recent sitting of the OSCE ministerial council in Copenhagen showed quite clearly that the international community is avoiding giving way to oil blackmail on the part of Baku. For the time being, at any rate.... And the second main condition for the oil transit routes is a final solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, which, as Azerbaijan cannot but understand, is not in the offing in the near future." "Settlement Acceptable To All Parties" The Armenian press reflected the guarded optimism of the government that a bullet had been dodged at the OSCE ministerial in Copenhagen regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. The bottom line of comments in all newspapers was that "Lisbon was not repeated." Official Respublika Armenia (12/20) claimed that it was important that the principle of consensus for adopting OSCE decisions was preserved at Copenhagen. The article noted that no decision will be imposed on the Armenian side in the future and that the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement will proceed in a way "acceptable to all the parties." "Conflict Must Be Solved With Nagorno-Karabakh's Participation" Radical Molorak (12/20) explained in an editorial that the main outcome of the Copenhagen meeting is that Armenia "made public its official position that the conflict must be solved with Nagorno- Karabakh's participation." AZERBAIJAN: "Aid To N-K And U.S. Interference In Baku's Affairs" Leading, independent weekly Ayna/Zerkalo (12/22) said in a piece on U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan and FSA Section 907: "From the outset, the American president has had the right to call for the initiation of legislation which could lead to the abolition of 907. The process is clearly enough set forth in the American legislative system but President Clinton has yet to use these powers. Instead, we have had listened to a number of American officials issue statements calling for the abolition of 907 since the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has been regulated.... If we are to set the record straight, then its not an accidental error (that 907 hasn't been abolished) but has been maintained in order to carry out the fundamentals of America's regional strategy. Over the past five years (since 907 was passed), Baku has beem transformed into an American lackey. With respect to oil contracts, their 'patron' has been given a considerable share. Washington answers all of this by saying that it promises to weaken 907's 'entanglements.' From the outset, in order to clarify what seems to re an illogical policy, it is necessary to attempt to clarify what the United States wants from the region and how it thinks it can reach its objectives.... "However, did the United States really have the right to force Azerbaijan to establish relations with a country which was occupying 20 percent of its territory? Finally, without Baku's consent, regardless of what form it might take, aid to Nagorno-Karabakh can only be considered an example of American interference in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan and may destroy our country's peace.... Western romantics have now been liberated from their dreams and will now begin to weigh the positive and negative aspects of Western support." "We Want To Believe This Won't Affect Our Bilateral Relations" Independent sister weekly Ayna/Zerkalo (12/13) covered U.S. Ambassador Stanley Escudero's press conference regarding 907, saying, "Mr. Escudero clearly stated that it simply wasn't true that money was going to be sent to Karabakh or distributed via any administrative unit existing in Karabakh.... "It is necessary to note that with respect to the humanitarian aid, non-governmental organizations will identify those who are most needy and directly provide aid to these same people.... The possibility that the congressional decision has been presented in a fashion that is more advantageous to the Armenian side than it is cannot be excluded. The mechanisms by which the aid will be realized may be organized in such a fashion that it reaffirms Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan." "Time To Say 'Enough Is Enough' To U.S." Opposition Yeni Musavat front-paged this by Sahin Cafarij (12/2), "Today, U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan does not differ very much from Russia's policy.... One can go further and say that the two state's policies toward Azerbaijan are complementing each other. This creates a strange picture: In addition to failing to recognize Armenia as an aggressor state, every sort of assistance is given to it, including assistance from the countries represented by the OSCE Minsk group co- chairs. Armenia gets arms from Russia and money from the United States. Thus, instead of punishing the aggressor, they are rewarding it.... "American companies have gotten special treatment in a series of oil contracts which have been signed one after another.... It is time that we say 'enough is enough' to the United States, which, while taking the lion's share of our riches, turns around and punishes us.... The Azerbaijani parliament must take a firm stand and adopt a resolution banning participation of U.S. companies in oil contracts. Once this is done, the U.S. administration will increase its efforts to convince Congress to repeal Section 907." "Are We Supposed To Be Satisfied?" Oppositionist Azadliq (12/2), in a page-one article, said, "It is not clear why we shouid accept the fact that, while Georgia receives $92.5 (million) and Armenia receives $87.5 (million), Azerbaijan itself receives no direct assistance. Maybe we are supposed to be satisfied with the fact that, along with the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh (referred to in the bill as 'the victims of the conflict,') Azerbaijani refugees will also receive some aid." "Too High A Price For 'Hollywood Smile?'" Emin Kamiloglu penned this for independent sister newspapers Ayna/Zerkalo (11/22), "Azerbaijan has done its best to enhance the development of comprehensive relations with the United States. However, the Clinton administration has not been able to--and might not even have tried too hard to--help resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict or repeal the discriminatory amendment (Section 907).... In the long run, it does not matter where the hostile attitude comes from if the fact remains: While shaking hands with us, a smiling Uncle Sam has been making motions in a contradictory fashion behind our backs. A host of contracts on Caspian oil development have been signed. Azerbaijan has practically put its future in America's hands. In exchange, we have received numerous promises indicating enormous prosperity. Meanwhile, Section 907 remains in force, direct assistance will be given to Nagorno-Karabakh and our relationship with our closest neighbors, Iran and Russia, continues to be tense. Many people, including those in the Azerbaijani leadership, have started seriously considering the possibility that too high a price has been paid for the 'Hollywood smile.'" "Questions With Respect To Azerbaijan's Territorial Integrity" According to oppositionist Yeni Musavat's Esmia Namiqqizi (11/14), "All the meetings and talks that Heydar Aliyev held with the senators during his official visit to the United States last August failed to result in a repeal or even moderation of this unfair amendment (FSA Section 907).... If no pressure is applied, the American president's position may not be favorable to Azerbaijan and subsequently, the United States may eventually recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state (by approving separate aid for it). The Armenian lobby is carrying out this policy stage by stage, and is thereby raising questions with respect to Azerbaijan's territorial integrity." KAZAKHSTAN: "Reducing Tensions Around Important Hydrocarbon Source Region" Sultan Akimbekov told readers of Russian-language weekly Delovaya Nedelya (12/19) that the Tehran meeting of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) member states led to "intensive bilateral talks...aimed at promoting the settlement of many regional problems and conflicts," including Afghanistan. The weekly went on to say, "One can...note Turkmen-Azerbaijani agreements on the formation of a joint commission for the settlement of a dispute between the two countries over ownership of the Kapyaz and Serdar oil fields in the central part of the Caspian Sea. A clear trend toward stabilization can be considered the major characteristic of the Tehran summit. The major idea in Tehran was to strive for reducing real tensions around the important crude hydrocarbon resources in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea basin.... Today this is in the interests of major Islamic states and the United States." KYRGYZTAN: "Why Uzbekistan Is U.S.' Main Partner In Central Asia" Albert Bogdanov, international affairs columnist for government-owned Slovo Kyrgyzstana (12/11), reviewed comments from Western sources about U.S. interests in Central Asia and around the Caspian Sea. He first referred to a VOA interview with a Heritage Foundation member who stated, 'The United States is strategically interested, with a view to the 21st century, in diversifying the sources of oil and gas for the world economy. Caspian oil and Central Asian gas may become that fuel, on which the economy of the 21st century will turn.'' Bogdanov commented, 'Many commentators consider this fact in particular to have been the reason for the U.S.' steadfast attention to the Central Asian region.... But the United States, according to Pena, the U.S. secretary of energy, sincerely wants to assist the economic prosperity of Central Asian people and in that way [to assist] the stability and strengthening of democracy in this region.... "If the stream of petro-dollars starts, it is far from a fact that that money will reach ordinary people. This phenomenon is called 'the Dutch disease.'... If this money doesn't improve the prosperity of the population, the conflict between the poor underneath and the rich on top will increase, and the stability of these countries, which the United States is so interested in, could be shaken even more. That is why the United States counts on those Central Asian states, where there is more energy and other resources. And it is not by chance that Uzbekistan has become Washington's main partner in Central Asia, while most of the Central Asian republics are still moving towards Russia. But the struggle for oil and gas between Russia and Washington has already started. Hoping to get economic advantages, Uzbekistan is moving away from Russia and drawing nearer to the West.... Russia sees the growing American influence in Central Asia with suspicion, guessing that Americans are trying to push Moscow out of its traditional area of influence." GERMANY: "Escaping From Russia's Influence" Werner Adam said in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (1/7), "The community of heirs of the former Soviet Union can no longer be saved. Russia as the core of the former empire must see that the ex-Soviet republics are increasingly escaping from Russian influence. The intention of the five CIS republics to strengthen their independence by consolidating their economic sovereignty and by getting access to the international raw material markets must be a tough blow for Russia. At issue is an area that has considerable natural gas and crude oil reserves, whose transportion has so far been under Russian direction.... The only reliable Russian ally in the region will now be Armenia...and the more or less Bolshevist-ruled Belarus. It is time to declare the end of the CIS." "Iran Rising" Werner Adam wrote in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (1/2), "Iran is well on its way to increasing its international weight and to take economic advantage of its geostrategic position. This can be observed in particular in the Caspian region which is rich in crude oil and natural gas resources.... The fact that Tehran only recently succeeded in winning Turkmenistan for the construction of a pipeline to Iran will be considered disruptive in Moscow.... But Washington, too, will have mixed feelings. As much as the United States tries to contain Russia's hegemonic claim in Central Asia, as little can it be interested in Iran's weight increasing in the region. But there are indications of a cautious rapprochement between the United States and Iran since the change of presidency in Tehran. One indication is that Washington has tacitly taken note of an agreement that was concluded between Turkey, Iran, and Turkmenistan and provides for the construction of another pipeline by bypassing Russia." "The Common Wish For Profits" Jurgen Gottschlich dealt with U.S. approval of the construction of the pipeline from Turkmenistan to Turkey in left-of-center Die Tageszeitung of Berlin (12/30), "Two events have now resulted in the fact that, after years of debates, a pipeline will now be build between Turkmenistan and Turkey. First, the Turkish military pushed Islamist Erbakan out of office, then the Iranians elected Mohammed Khatami as their new president. Even before he took office, the Americans announced that they would now permit the construction of the pipeline across Iran. Erbakan's successor in Ankara, Mezut Yilmaz, is now being supported by the United States with his policy in Central Asia. For the frustrations which Yilmaz experienced with the West, he is now being compensated for in the East. During his visit to Washington and Turkmenistan, all participants again discussed a pipeline to the Caspian Sea, but after all the United States approved the contract with Shell. "Although Washington said at the beginning that this approval would not signal a profound change of its policy towards Iran, the U.S. policy towards Asia is slowly changing. "The common wish for profits made this possible." "The Primakov Doctrine In Caucasus, Caspian Sea" Werner Adam commented in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (12/4) regarding the so-called Primakov doctrine: "According to it, Russia wants good relations with the United States and the West in general, but the Americans need to understand that in addition to themselves there are other countries which have some influence and political weight.... The cooling in Russian-American relations is not only due to the Iraq crisis, but also because of the impetuous American striving for influence on the development in the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. There are huge oil and gas fields that American companies, with the open political support of their government, would like to develop and exploit. But Russia, which until recently used to have sole control of the energy resources of the Soviet republics, views this as an American attempt to push Russia out of a lucrative business." BRITAIN: "Caspian Coup For Iran As Turkmen Pipeline Opens" According to the independent Financial Times (12/30), "Iran scored a foreign policy coup yesterday with the opening of the first natural gas pipeline linking the Islamic republic with the vast resources of the Caspian Sea region, via Turkmenistan. The opening of the $200 million development underscored the difficulties the United States is experiencing in trying to prevent Iran from playing a big role in the region, and in the growing international interest in developing some of the world's last great oil and gas fields." FRANCE: "In Central Asia, U.S. Playing A Major (Oil) Game" Right-of-center weekly L'Express' Sylvaine Pasquier wrote (11/21), "In Central Asia, the United States is playing a major (oil) game.... In order to free itself from the Gulf, Washington is betting on Eurasia's black gold, thus annoying Moscow.... The United States is aggressively courting Central Asia's leaders, such as (Azerbaijan's) Aliyev, with the risk of offending pro-Armenian lobbyists who are defending Nagorno-Karabakh." ITALY: "Changes In Ties With Iran And Caspian Wealth" Anna di Lellio observed from New York in PDS (leading government party) L'Unita (1/8): "Changes in (Iran's) relationship with the United States would certainly bring economic benefits, since they would lift the block on the billions of dollars the Iranians have overseas and would also contribute to removing the American veto on Russian cooperation with Iran and (aid) the exploitation of oil and gas resources in the Caspian region." "Turkey, Iran, U.S., Europe, And Central Asian Oil" An editorial in provocative, classical liberal Il Foglio asserted (12/31): "The Turkmenistan gas pipeline is a setback for the United States, which aims at creating a pipeline that will deliver oil from the huge reserves of the Caspian Sea to Turkish territory, bypassing Iran.... And Europe's decision to exclude Turkey as a candidate for EU membership has prompted a reaction by the Turks, the effects of which are increasingly evident. After canceling a massive order of planes from the European Airbus group to the advantage of the American Boeing, Turkey is now linking itself with Iran, distancing itself further from Europe. The consequences of the above are not the same for everybody. Ankara's embrace of Iran allows the Germans to strengthen their veto of Turkey, preventing additional immigration by Turks to Germany. The Netherlands and France are also gaining something. Last Sunday Turkey, along with Iran and Turkmenistan, signed a contract with Royal Dutch Shell for a new gas pipeline project. And the fact that Iran is emerging from the international isolation to which Washington was trying to confine it, represents a victory for French diplomacy." "Iran's Hands On Caspian Sea's Black Gold" Centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera commented (12/30): "Yesterday Mohammad Khatami was radiant.... The Iranian president's satisfaction probably came from knowing he bypassed two obstacles. An anonymous source within his government said, 'We are showing that we can nullify American sanctions and play an important role in Central Asia.' This is a way of telling the United States that the Islamic Republic of Iran also sits on the enormous resources of the Caspian Sea.... There is the fear that sooner or later Russia will decide to re-annex its southern periphery...or that the United States will impose its law on producers or consumers.... The game of getting Caspian Sea energy resources will determine Russian economic development in the coming decades. Russia, the United States, Europe and China know it. And Iran seems to be more and more the umpire of this match." "U.S. Oil Companies No Longer Rulers Of Great Game" An editorial in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica concluded (12/30): "The opening ceremony of part of the gas pipeline between Iran and Turkmenistan is a significant event in international politics, with major and particular impact on Tehran.... The United States. does not want the tap to the Caspian Sea's resources to be in the ayatollahs' hands...and up until now it has succeeded in keeping Tehran out of the game by threatening economic retaliation. But this boycott has holes and calls into question the hegemony that Washington has tried to gain in the area.... In fact, Tehran has found a back door onto the playing field from which the United States would like to exclude it. European companies, mainly French ones, which are pushing for an `Iranian opening' will have reason to rejoice today.... The big American companies are no longer rulers of the oil game." BELGIUM: "Better For U.S. To Do Business With Iran On Caspian" Foreign affairs writer Freddy De Pauw observed in independent Catholic De Standaard (1/3), "The new gas pipeline from Turkmenistan Nebit Dag to an existing pipeline in Iran is not very impressive in itself: 200 kilometers (of pipeline) which carries natural gas from the Caspian Sea to northern Iran. However, with the opening of that piece of pipeline, Iran ended the year with extra energy and, above all, a diplomatic success. Tehran thus defied the American 'Satan' and 'partner' Russia.... "That development strengthens the lobbies in Washington which insist on the normalization of relations with Tehran.... Indeed, various U.S. energy groups witness with regret how European competitors are eating the cheese from their bread in the meanwhile. A glance at the map is also sufficient for (Americans) to see that it is better to do business with Iran in order to get a hand in the largest part of the Caspian resources." "Turkmeni Gas Defies Russia And U.S." Pol Mathil observed in independent Le Soir (12/30), "Iran's President Mohammad Khatami and Turkmeni Saparmourad Niazov inaugurated on Monday a pipeline that will make it possible for Turkmenistan to export for the first time its natural gas to Europe, via Iran.... This is of course a commercial matter, but it could have obvious political implications, in two respects. On one hand, it is the first time that gas from the Caspian Sea region and from Central Asia leaves the former Soviet territory without transiting through Russia. It is the end of a monopoly inescapable for one century. On the other hand, this is a new step undertaken by Iran to overcome the blockade which the United States is trying to impose on it in several international arenas. To sum up, this is a new phase in the large-scale operations around the Caspian energy resources which today represent the only credible alternative to the Middle East's oil dominance." MIDDLE EAST IRAN: "Victory Of Independent Willpower Of Iran And Turkmenistan" Official, Persian-language Tehran TV declared (1/1) regarding the pipeline project with Turkmenistan, "Many analysts, even in Western countries, consider the most important message of this event to have been the victory of the independent willpower of Iran and Turkmenistan over the demands of great powers, especially America, since the realization of the project to carry Turkmen gas to Iran and Europe means disregarding the preferences of the American government, which had recently declared that U.S. policy opposes the crossing of the oil and gas pipelines through Iranian territory. In addition, this development has also encouraged other Central Asian states such as Kazakhstan, which could not decide whether to cooperate with Iran or to follow America's lead. It seems that the geopolitical importance and strategic location of Iran, as well as the necessities of the world market and the interests of the nations of the region, and finally the victory of reason over the illogical preferences of American politicians, has paved the way for entering a new era of regional relations." "Facilitating Ashgabat's Link With Outside World Via Iran" Tehran's official news agency, IRNA, reported that the English- language Iran Daily's editorial said (12/30) regarding Khatami's two- day trip to Ashgabat, "The undertakings of the 200-km Korpedzhe-Kord Koy gas pipeline and the 715-km fiber-optic project are of great significance for two neighboring countries.... The fiber-optic line implemented by Iran is part of the giant China-Germany fiber-optic grid and signifies a big revolution in Turkmenistan's telecommunication industry. It will facilitate Ashgabat's link with the outside world via the Islamic Republic of Iran. Meanwhile, the flow of gas to Iran through Iranian-built pipeline symbolizes that Ashgabat has succeeded in exporting its gas to other parts of the world through a corridor other than Russia--a long cherished wish after Turkmenistan attained its independence. "It is also one way of demonstrating Turkmenistan's neutrality and political independence... The decision to conduct a feasibility study to build gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Europe via Iran, was announced soon after...Khatami arrived in his first foreign visit to the Turkmen capital. Besides its short-term economic benefits, implementation of major transnational projects will inter-link interests of regional nations in the long run. This in turn will thwart plots to disrupt good neighborly relations. President Khatami's trip heralds brotherly ties between the two Muslim nations besides strengthening the foundations for yet closer relationship based on mutual trust and interest." "Former USSR Republics Should Not Remain Hostages For U.S., Israel" The English-language Iran News (12/6) held, "The republics of Central Asia and Caucasus are facing special politico-economic situations and they need active cooperation from the Organization of the Islamic Conference [OIC].... This part of the world is rich in natural resources and trained manpower. The world's largest lake, the Caspian Sea, is a source of rivalry among international oil giants, especially the United States.... The Central Asian and Caucasian republics have two major problems. To begin with, they are all landlocked and so is the Caspian Sea. They possess technological knowhow, albeit slightly outdated, in several industrial fields. Thus the republics need a short export route, and such an export route could only pass through Iran. "This is an area where the United States and Israel are creating hurdles by exerting pressure on these republics to bypass Iran. A recent example was provided during the visit of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to the United States last month when Vice President Al Gore pressed Nazarbayev to ignore Iran as a possible trade route. Fortunately, the republic's popularly elected president Nazarbayev did not bow before Al Gore's pressure and declared he would continue his talks with Iran on the $7 billion investment for oil exploration and another $35 billion investment on crude oil production projects to exploit an estimated eight billion barrels of proven reserves. These republics possess natural gas, gold and other mineral deposits which will eventually enable them to perform very dynamic economic roles in the region. Top officials from the Central Asian and Caucasian republics are now in Tehran and this would be a golden opportunity to hold constructive negotiations on bilateral cooperation as well as collaborations within the framework of OIC.... Central and Caucasian republics should not remain hostages in the hands of Israel and the United States." SOUTH ASIA INDIA: "China Joins The Great Game" An analysis in the centrist Hindu (1/2) by strategic affairs editor C. Raja Mohan maintained: "Until recently a passive observer of the Central Asian power play, China has now thrust itself onto the center stage of the region's geopolitics. By snatching away some major oil deals from American energy companies in Central Asia, China has declared its determination to shape the future balance of power in the region.... The sweeteners offered by Beijing could not be matched by the U.S. oil companies, and these included the Chinese willingness to put a lot of cash up front, an oil swap deal with Iran, and the last- minute offer to build a 3,000 km long pipeline that will link Kazakhstan and China's western province of Xinjiang.... "For China the new focus on the geopolitics of Central Asia is partly driven by consensus about energy security.... Seeking to efficiently manage its long-term energy imports, China has begun to look at options for diversification of supply. Beijing is aiming to match its production shortfalls with capacity developed abroad. China's national oil company has invested, sometimes on its own and often in collaboration with oil companies from other countries, in petroleum projects across the world--in more than 20 countries including Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Sudan.... "China's energy diplomacy in Central Asia follows its conscious effort in recent years to defuse once tense borders with the former Soviet republics, and promote military and economic confidence-building measures. By pursuing economic interdependence with Central Asia through mega-energy projects, China hopes to lessen its political vulnerabilities on the Western frontiers and create a powerful strategic role for itself at the heart of the Eurasian landmass." PAKISTAN: "A Warning To U.S.?" In the view of A.R. Siddiqi in the center-right Nation (12/24), "The overwhelming compulsion behind the U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy (as indeed elsewhere in the world) remains the defense of its own national interests.... In April last, the two countries (China and Russia) along with three Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, signed the so-called strategic partnership treaty. The establishment of that state-to-state relationship, in the words of President Jiang Zemin, constituted a 'positive contribution' to the establishment of a new international border. The message given to the West and the United States was loud and clear: Avoid any attempt to isolate Moscow and Beijing from world affairs. The Asia-Pacific rim is not the sole preserve and playground of the United States. Russia and China also have their vital stakes in the region as Pacific powers. The West and the United States would, therefore, have to be particularly sensitive to Sino-Russian aspirations in the Asia-Pacific region as well as South and Central Asia." EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC CHINA: "U.S.: Early Bird Who Caught The Oil Worm" Yin Shuguang wrote for the official, Communist Party People's Daily(Renmin Ribao, 12/27), "With Eastern Europe as its starting point, 'Uncle Sam' has crossed over the Caucasus mountains and the Ural River and arrived at the outer Caucasus region and Central Asia. This area is a traditional backyard of Russia, but has been claimed by the United States as 'a region of immediate interests.'... In the oil fight here, the United States is the early bird who has caught the worm." ## For more information, please contact: U.S. Information Agency Office of Public Liaison Telephone: (202) 619-4355 1/8/98 # # #
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