Voice of America 5/12/97
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
BYLINE=FRANCIS RONALDS
TELEPHONE=619-3937
DATELINE=WASH
EDITOR=NANCY SMART
INTRO:
PARTICIPANTS IN A CONFERENCE AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA HAVE CONCLUDED
THAT THE DANGER OF THE PROLIFERATION
OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION HAS
INCREASED, AND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
FURTHER IN THE FUTURE. AMONG THOSE
WHO TOOK PART IN THE CONFERENCE,
SPONSORED BY THE UNIVERSITY'S CENTER
FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND SECURITY,
WERE SAM NUNN, FORMER DEMOCRATIC
SENATOR FROM GEORGIA; RICHARD LUGAR,
REPUBLICAN SENATOR FROM INDIANA AND
CHAIRMAN OF THE SENATE FOREIGN
RELATIONS COMMITTEE; AND U-S DEFENSE
SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN. WITH BACKGROUND,
HERE IS VOA'S FRANK RONALDS.
HOST:
ABOUT 2,000 STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MISSILES
HAVE BEEN MOVED TO RUSSIA OUT OF BELARUS,
KAZAKSTAN AND UKRAINE, WHICH ARE NOW
FREE OF SUCH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
THE COSTS INVOLVED WERE COVERED LARGELY
BY THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS, UNDER THE
COMPREHENSIVE THREAT REDUCTION ACT,
KNOWN COMMONLY AS THE NUNN-LUGAR
BILL, AFTER THE TWO SENATORS WHO SPONSORED
IT. ABOUT TWO BILLION DOLLARS HAS SO FAR
BEEN SPENT BY THE UNITED STATES TO HELP
THESE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS, AS WELL
AS RUSSIA, REDUCE THE THREAT THOSE
WEAPONS PRESENTED. BUT BESIDES ITS
REMAINING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MISSILES,
RUSSIA HAS AN ESTIMATED 30,000 TACTICAL
NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- SOME SMALL ENOUGH
TO BE PUT IN THE TRUNK OF AN AUTOMOBILE.
THESE PRESENT A GREAT THREAT OF
PROLIFERATION, SINCE THEY COULD FAIRLY
EASILY BE LOST, SOLD, OR STOLEN. THE
SITUATION FACING US TODAY, SENATOR
NUNN SAYS, PRESENTS A STARK CONTRAST
TO THE PERIOD OF THE COLD WAR:
TAPE: CUT ONE -- NUNN
"WE HAVE BEEN IN A 45-YEAR PERIOD OF
VERY HIGH RISK. BUT BECAUSE THE RISK
OF NUCLEAR WAR WAS SO HIGH, WE HAD
HIGH STABILITY. BOTH THE SOVIET
UNION AND THE UNITED STATES RECOGNIZED
THAT IF WE HAD ANY KIND OF WAR THAT
ESCALATED, IT COULD LEAD TO NUCLEAR
WAR AND TO THE DESTRUCTION OF BOTH
OF OUR NATIONS. THIS MEANS WE WERE
CAUTIOUS. WE WERE ON GUARD. WE DID
EVERYTHING TO CONTAIN ANY
CONFRONTATION DURING THE COLD WAR
SO THAT IT DID NOT ESCALATE UPWARD
TO THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. WE'VE
MOVED OUT OF THIS ERA NOW. THIS NATION
IS SAFER NOW FROM ANY KIND OF MAJOR
WAR THAN WE HAVE BEEN IN FIFTY YEARS.
BUT WE HAVE MOVED TO A PERIOD WHERE
WE HAVE A LOT LOWER RISK, BUT LOWER
STABILITY. WE SEE THAT WITH ETHNIC
BREAK-OUTS, WE SEE THAT WITH ALL SORTS
OF RELIGIOUS CONFLICT IN THE WORLD.
WE NO LONGER HAVE THE RESTRAINING
INFLUENCE OF TWO SUPERPOWERS TRYING
TO RESTRAIN THEIR CLIENTS TO PREVENT
THAT ESCALATION. SO WE ARE IN A PERIOD
OF LOWER RISK BUT LOWER STABILITY.
WE ARE IN A PERIOD OF TERRORISM."
HOST:
ACCORDING TO SENATOR LUGAR, THE
INCIDENCE OF TERRORISM IS ON THE RISE.
SO FAR, TERRORISTS HAVE NOT USED
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, BUT
HE BELIEVES THERE IS REASON TO EXPECT
THAT THEY MAY DO SO IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
HE NOTES THAT CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS MAY BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT
TO DETECT THAN NUCLEAR ONES:
TAPE: CUT TWO -- LUGAR
"NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS MATERIAL AND KNOW-HOW
ARE NOW MUCH MORE WIDELY AVAILABLE
TO POTENTIAL TERRORISTS AND ROGUE
NATIONS THAN AT ANY TIME IN OUR
HISTORY. SEVERAL NATIONS AND
SUB-NATIONAL GROUPS ARE ACTIVELY
SEEKING A CAPABILITY FOR THEIR
POTENTIAL USE AGAINST THE UNITED
STATES AND ITS ALLIES. IN SHORT, THIS
IS AN INTERNATIONAL PROBLEM THAT DEFIES
AN EXCLUSIVELY DOMESTIC RESPONSE."
HOST:
SENATOR LUGAR SAYS THAT RUSSIA HAS
FAR MORE NUCLEAR WEAPONS THAN THE
UNITED STATES, BUT CONTROLS OVER THEM
ARE STEADILY DETERIORATING AS ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS AFFECT EVEN THE COUNTRY'S
ELITE STRATEGIC ROCKET FORCES:
TAPE: CUT THREE -- LUGAR
"RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THOUSANDS
OF OPERATIONAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDER
CONTROLS THAT AT BEST ARE FRAYING
AT THE EDGES. AS LONG AS TEN YEARS AGO,
THAT EQUIPMENT BEGAN BREAKING DOWN
AND ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION WENT
INTO QUOTE 'COMBAT MODE' END OF QUOTE.
MOREOVER, THE THREAT OF THE LOSS, SALE
OR THEFT OF WEAPONS-GRADE MATERIAL
REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN AS CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE IN THE ARMED FORCES AND RUSSIA'S
WEAPONS-RELATED SCIENTIFIC INSTITUTES."
HOST:
SO FAR, THE DUMA, OR LOWER HOUSE OF
THE RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT, HAS REFUSED
TO RATIFY START TWO, THE AGREEMENT
ON THE REDUCTION OF STRATEGIC NUCLEAR
WEAPONS SIGNED BY RUSSIA'S PRESIDENT
BORIS YELTSIN AND THEN-U-S PRESIDENT
GEORGE BUSH AT THE BEGINNING OF 1993.
FURTHERMORE, THE DUMA HAS FAILED TO
RATIFY THE CONVENTION ON CHEMICAL
WEAPONS, CLAIMING THAT IT WILL COST
TOO MUCH TO DESTROY RUSSIA'S LARGE
STOCKPILES OF SUCH DEVISES. U-S DEFENSE
SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN POINTS OUT
THAT EVEN THE RUSSIAN PRESS HAS BEEN
SHARPLY CRITICAL OF THE DUMA FOR ITS
INACTION:
TAPE: CUT FOUR -- COHEN
"WE HAVE TO ENCOURAGE THOSE NATIONS
WHO HAVE NOT SIGNED, AND WHO HAVE NOT
RATIFIED, TO JOIN THE OTHER RESPONSIBLE
MEMBERS OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
TO TRY TO PUT A STOP TO THIS PROLIFERATION
THREAT. THE RUSSIAN DUMA SAID, 'THANK
YOU, BUT WE'RE GOING TO WAIT. WE DON'T
HAVE ANY MONEY RIGHT NOW AND MAYBE
IN THE FALL, WE'LL TAKE IT UP. AS A RESULT,
THEY'VE BEEN SEVERELY CRITICIZED BY THE
NOW SEMI, AT LEAST, IF NOT FULLY,
INDEPENDENT PRESS IN THE FORMER SOVIET
UNION, WHICH SAYS, 'WAIT A MINUTE. THIS
IS IN OUR INTEREST. NOW THE UNITED STATES
WILL HAVE PEOPLE WHO ARE DESIGNING THE
PROTOCOLS OF INSPECTION. NOW THE UNITED
STATES AND ALL THOSE OTHER COUNTRIES,
THE 70-PLUS WHO HAVE RATIFIED IT, WILL BE
THE ONES DECIDING THE FATE OF THIS
PARTICULAR CONVENTION. THEY'RE THE
ONES WHO WILL HAVE THE INSPECTORS
GOING IN AND MAKING THE INSPECTIONS.
WHY ARE YOU PUTTING THIS OFF?' AND SO
THEY'RE COMING UNDER INCREASING
CRITICISM FROM THEIR OWN PRESS NOW,
FOR THE FAILURE TO RATIFY AS QUICKLY
AS THE UNITED STATES HAS DONE."
HOST:
SPECIALISTS FROM A GREAT MANY
COUNTRIES, INCLUDING RUSSIA ITSELF,
ARE WARNING THAT THE DANGER OF THE
PROLIFERATION AND USE OF NUCLEAR,
CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WILL
CERTAINLY INCREASE, UNLESS STRONG
MEASURES ARE TAKEN INTERNATIONALLY
TO CONTAIN SUCH THREATS.
(SIGNED)
NEB/FSR/NES
12-May-97 10:09 AM EDT (1409 UTC)
NNNN
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