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CURRENT CONTENTS

New Group Urges Nuke Reductions; Warns Of Control Issues. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 61 A committee of concerned scholars and retired military and public officials, the Committee on Nuclear Policy, warned that Russian command and control of nuclear weapons are rapidly crumbling, raising the risk of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons to unprecedented levels.

Congressional Watch: A New Beginning. Armed Forces Journal. John G. Roos, Mar 01, 1997, p 6, 10 In this interview, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott speaks frankly about key defense issues, including his opinion of new Defense Secretary William Cohen and his differences with the Clinton administration over the need to deploy a National Missile Defense system.

Commanders Demand Effective Missile Defense. Aviation Week & Space Technology. William B. Scott, Mar 03, 1997, p 42-42 "I have a fundamental requirement for [a National Missile Defense] system -- be operational and do its job," said Gen Howell M. Estes, 3rd, the commander-in-chief (CINC) of both the North American Aerospace Defense and US space commands. "In terms of a system being capable of doing what it's designed to do, there's not a lot of 'give' here. The biggest mistake we, as a nation, could make is to deploy a system that's not [effective]. The public wouldn't stand for it, and -- as the CINC -- I certainly would be remiss in my duties, if I let that happen."

US Pursues NMD System To Prepare For 'Rouge' Threat. Aviation Week & Space Technology. Stanley W. Kandebo, Mar 03, 1997, p 44-45 Depending on whether a missile was launched from the Middle East or from Asia, it could take 15-40 minutes from the time a launched vehicle broke through the Earth's cloud cover until a reentry vehicle impacted the US, according to USAF Col David F. McNierney, acting program manager for the NMD office. But NMD system operators would typically have 1-10 minutes from when they were notified of a launch to when they would have to release an interceptor. The interceptor's hit to kill vehicle would then engage the hostile reentry vehicle at an altitude above 100km (62 mi.) 5-15 minutes after the threat was launched.

Kaminski Urges Caution On NMD Deployment. Aviation Week & Space Technology, Mar 03, 1997, p 45 Paul Kaminski, the Pentagon's chief for acquisition and technology, argues that a call for the US to commit to an NMD deployment date of 2003 would lock BMDO into technologies prematurely. He thinks BMDO should instead continue NMD research until the missile threat to the US becomes clearer. "It would be senseless for us to deploy a capability that wouldn't be effective," he said.

Costs, Politics Impede European Efforts. Aviation Week & Space Technology. John D. Morrocco, Mar 03, 1997, p 55-57 Individually, European nations are working at varying paces on missile defense. Germany and the Netherlands are looking at improved Patriots along with the US. Germany and Italy are cooperating with the US on the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS), which is designed to replace the Hawk. MEADS is intended to be a highly mobile system based on a hit-to-kill missile with an active seeker. Designed for limited area defense against tactical ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, MEADS is currently in the project definition phase.

NMD System Integrates New And Updated Components. Aviation Week & Space Technology. Stanley W. Kandebo, Mar 03, 1997, p 47-48, 51 BMDO envisions a maximum of 24 in-flight interceptor communications system (IFICS), a subelement of the BM/C3 that relays commands to the GBIs, to protect all 50 states. Since NMD deployment is threat specific, fewer may be deployed. If the threat were perceived to be from North Korea, IFICS stations would be deployed in the western US, but not on the East Coast.

Washington Outlook: Decline All Offers. Aviation Week & Space Technology. James R. Asker, Feb 24, 1997, p 19 Israel is denying improper links to David A. Tenenbaum, a US Army mechanical engineer, who has admitted he "inadvertently" passed classified information on the Patriot missile defense system and armored vehicles to Israeli officials over a 10 year period.

Arrow On Target For Initial, Limited Capability In 1998. Aviation Week & Space Technology. John D. Morrocco, Mar 03, 1997, p 58 The Israeli-US Arrow missile program is on track for a second intercept test in the next few months employing an Arrow 2, an operationally configured version, leading to tests of the fully integrated weapon system next year. Israel plans to have an evaluation system, with a limited operational capability, available for emergency contingency use next year. The first fully operational Arrow battery is not scheduled to be fielded until shortly after 2000.

NMD To Hit ICBM In FY99. Aviation Week & Space Technology, Mar 03, 1997, p 51 BMDO will evaluate the performance of a proposed NMD system architecture by using prototype equipment, as well as surrogates, to track and intercept a nonnuclear target reentry vehicle late in FY99. This test is important because it will undoubtedly be used as a yardstick toward determining if indeed such a system is sound enough, technologically, to be fielded.

EKV Contractor Selection Targeted For Fiscal 1999. Aviation Week & Space Technology. Stanley W. Kandebo, Mar 03, 1997, p 52-54 Selection of an exoatmospheric kill vehicle (EKV) contractor for a NMD system is expected for FY99. Boeing North American's EKV uses arsenic-doped silicon infrared seeker technology. Hughes' EKV relies on a seeker that uses a three mirror anastigmatic telescope system that focuses images into an optical bench of two beam splitters and three focal plane arrays.

MEADS Faces Tough Sell. Aviation Week & Space Technology. Joseph Anselmo, Mar 03, 1997, p 57 Pentagon officials are hoping the MEADS project will pave the way for a new era of international cooperation and cost sharing, but they will first have to find money for the US share and convince a skeptical Congress to sign off. The US is funding 60% of an initial MEADS definition and validation phase at a cost of $112m, with another 25% coming from Germany and 15% from Italy. France had initially pledged to take a 20% share in the program, but pulled out last year.

Washington Outlook: Do Or Die?. Aviation Week & Space Technology. James R. Asker, Feb 24, 1997, p 19 Pentagon acquisition chief Paul Kaminski suggests THAAD program officials should expect serious trouble if the antimissile missile continues to flunk interceptor tests. Kaminski says a failure won't necessarily doom THAAD, but the lack of a successful intercept "in the very near term" would force a major restructuring of the program.

Weldon On National Missile Defense: '3 + Infinity...'. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 66-67 Rep Curt Weldon (R-PA) complained that the 3+3 NMD program was actually 3+ infinity or 3 + none. SecDef Cohen responds that the program keeps NMD on track, allowing R&D of an NMD system leading to evaluation in 2000. Cohen says he is committed to advancing a missile defense program, noting that TMD is the highest priority in meeting the threat to US forces, its allies and other friendly nations.

BMDO Funds Early Photon Small Satellite Effort. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 64 BMDO awarded a $500K contract to the Florida Space Institute to develop a prototype small satellite to test laser communication technology in low Earth orbit. The Photon satellite will be designed to be deployed from either a space shuttle hitchhiker canister or possibly from a converted Minuteman booster.

BMDO Changes CHART. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 64-65 A series of four pie charts compare BMDO funding for FY97 and FY98, by dollar amount and by executing agent. The dollar amount chart includes NMD, support technology, and TMD. The executing agent chart includes BMDO, AF, Army, Navy and other.

Reducing Nukes: Core Of US - Russia Security Relations. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 60 According to Vice Pres Al Gore, the upcoming Russian - US Summit will address arms control and European security topics including START II and NATO. Gore noted that the president's FY98 budget calls for a new initiative, Partnership for Freedom, to continue US support for the economic revitalization of Russia and other independent states.

Patriot PAC-2, GEM Missiles Successful In Test. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 69 A Patriot PAC 2 missile and a Guidance Enhanced Missile (GEM) were fired as part of a PAC 3 Configuration 2 Air and Missile Defense system test. One objective of the test was to collect sensor data on target missiles and demonstrate feasibility of missile intercepts. The target, intercepted over the Pacific Ocean, was a Scud TMD target missile, launched from Bigen Island, Aur Atoll.

NMD LSI Concept Definition Proposal Released. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 67-68 Announces the release of NMD Lead Systems Integrator Concept Definition RFP. The purpose of the CD phase is to work out specific roles and responsibilities of the LSI contractor in FY99 integrated system test. The contractor will study booster options which include an option based on Minuteman, and another on a contractor proposed new, modified or purchased booster stack and infrastructure. Includes a chart showing the overall contract flow.

Widnall, AF Budget Reflect Confidence In ABL. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 63-64 The president's FY98 budget includes increased funding for ABL. Sec AF Sheila Widnall was briefed on the ABL program; afterward she praised the AF and contract personnel and said that the budget, schedule and technical concerns would be met.

Woolsey, Schlesinger See China Threat. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 58 Speaking before the House National Security Committee, former CIA chiefs James Woolsey and James Schlesinger described the Taiwan Stratis as a possible flash point between the US and China in the next few years unless the situation is carefully monitored.

DIA Eyes Proliferation As A Threat To US Interests. BMD Monitor, Feb 21, 1997, p 57-58 According to the DIA testimony before the Senate Select Committee On Intelligence, the death of Deng Xioping increases international concerns about the need for ongoing threat assessment, particularly in the area of NMD. Proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and missile delivery systems is a direct threat to the US, with Scud upgrades and UAV like cruise missile variants as the primary threat. Descriptors, Keywords: China Deng proliferation weapons mass destruction DIA Senate Select Committee Intelligence Scud upgrade UAV cruise missile threat nuclear chemical biological weapon

Defense Digest. Defense Daily, Mar 03, 1997, p 322 Two brief items: According to BMDO Director LtGen Lyles, the Defense Department's "3+3" National Missile Defense program has a "high degree of risk" because of the program's aggressive development schedule. BMDO recently released the RFP for the NMD program. Lyles also said that BMDO's recent failure to test fly an Exo-Atmospheric Kill Vehicle's (EKV) sensor package has cost the program $10m and between six to eight months. Although they plan to fly the EKV sensor in May '97, the second EKV package may not be tested until January 1998.

Lyles To Head Investigation Into Army's THAAD Intercept Failure. Defense Daily. Greg Caires, Mar 07, 1997, p 358-360 LtGen Lester Lyles, Director, BMDO, told the House National Security Committee's Military Research and Development subcommittee that he will head up a combined government and industry team's investigation into why the Army's THAAD system yesterday failed to intercept a target ballistic missile. Preliminary data suggests that problems with the THAAD missile's "divert and attitude control system (DACS)" caused the missile to miss its target. Beyond the failed intercept attempt, THAAD's other critical elements--including the GBR and BMC3 system-- performed as designed.

Anderson: THAAD Failure Could Delay System's 2004 Fielding. Defense Daily. Greg Caires, Mar 03, 1997, p 323 If the Army is to maintain its goal of fielding THAAD in 2004, a successful flight test is critical. In three consecutive attempts at White Sands Missile Range, no THAAD missile has successfully intercepted its target. Should the next test flight be unsuccessful, Army will not cancel the program, but the service will be forced to reexamine THAAD's development schedule in terms of time and resources.

Reporters Notebook: Land of the Rising Sums?. Defense Week, Mar 03, 1997, p 4 Both US and Japanese officials criticized a recent New York TIMES article which reported that Japan, in the midst of a study of anti-missile systems, was unlikely to buy any. The director general of Japan's Defense Agency, Fumio Kyuma, said, "It is a completely mistaken report. We are still at the stage of considerating the scheme."

Reporters Notebook: Weldon's Worries. Defense Week, Mar 03, 1997, p 4 In a recent letter to DoD acquisition chief Paul Kaminski, Rep Weldon (R-PA) expressed his concern that the recent decision to shift anti-missile procurement money from BMDO to the services' missile defense efforts will fall prey to higher budget priorities of the services.

Space-Based Laser Program Approaches Critical Mass. Defense Week. John Donnelly, Mar 03, 1997, p 1, 10, 15 In a recent letter to US Space Command Gen Howell Estes, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MI) wrote that the Senate Republican Conference would like to see space-based lasers developed to the point where they become a realistic option for boost phase missile defense. In response Estes wrote that "eventually a space-based solution will be needed" to meet the proliferating worldwide missile threat. Actually, deployment of SBL would be banned by the ABM Treaty.

Hastening Korean Reunification. Foreign Affairs. Nicholas Eberstadt, Mar 01, 1997, p 77-99 Pacific powers would like Korea to reunify slowly, but the North is soon likely to implode, its economy disintegrating as its weapons of mass destruction accumulate. Rapid reunification would spur economic growth, as in Germany, and reduce regional tensions. South Korea's liberalization of its own economy and strengthening of its civic institutions will prepare it to assist the North. China and Russia may not go along, but Western governments should stop coddling Pyongyang.

Russia's Illusory Ambitions. Foreign Affairs. Sherman Garnett, Mar 01, 1997, p 61-77 While Russia is wedged between its visions of grandeur and its reduced capabilities, the consolidation of the Ukraine and Uzbekistan, the rise of China, and the assertion of the newly independent rimland states are transforming Eurasia. Russia must come to terms with its neighbors' ascendancy and its own economic and military decline. Acting otherwise could plunge Eurasia into turmoil and usher in a new era of tension between Russia and the United States.

China I: The Coming Conflict With America. Foreign Affairs. Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, Mar 01, 1997, p 18-32 Many American policymakers and Sinologists believe that China will inevitably become nonideological, pragmatic, materialistic, and progressively freer in its culture and politics. Beijing, however, sees the United States not as a strategic partner but as the chief obstacle to its regional and global ambitions. Under cover of its current conciliatory mood, China acquires the wherewithal to back its aspirations regarding Taiwan and beyond with real power. America's number one objective in Asia must be to derail China's quest to become a 21st century hegemon.

China II: Beijing As A Conservative Power. Foreign Affairs. Robert Ross, Mar 01, 1997, p 33-44 There is no China threat, not because China is a benign giant but because it is too weak to challenge the balance of power. China can damage US interests, but it does not require containment. The most striking aspect of Chinese foreign policy is its effort to promote stability. Indeed, China is easier to deal with today than ever before. The United States needs a policy to contend with China's ability to destabilize Asia, not a policy to deal with a future hegemon. China is a revisionist power, but for the foreseeable future it will seek to maintain the status quo - and so should the United States.

Kaminski Briefed On SBIRS' Inability To Support Single-Site NMD. Inside The Pentagon, Feb 27, 1997, p 3-4 BMDO briefed UnderSecDef for Acquisition and Technology Paul Kaminski on a new finding that the AF SBIRS may not be able to track some classes of ballistic missile threats in time to cue interceptors from a single NMD site in Grand Forks, ND. Three options for BMDO include improve SBIRS to increase rapid interception; accept increased risk of failure to defend Alaska or Hawaii; revisit concepts under which DOD would deploy multiple interceptor sites.

Global Hawk UAV Prepares For First Flight. Jane's Defence Weekly, Feb 26, 1997, p 6 The Global Hawk UAV is preparing for its first flight scheduled for "around September." The 13.2m long aircraft has a 34.8m wingspan and can fly at altitudes of up to 65,000ft. The 115kg payload will carry sensors that will be able to provide spot images of 30cm resolution and will be able to fly to a target area 3,000nm away and loiter for 24 hours before returning to base.

Anti-Cruise Contracts Are Awarded. Jane's Defence Weekly, Feb 26, 1997, p 8 Texas Instruments, Boeing North American and Toyon Research Corporation have each won 12 month DARPA contracts to develop low cost cruise missile defense (CMD) concepts. Potential platforms for CMD include E-3, AWACS, E-2C Hawkeye early warning aircraft and F-15 fighters.

USA Reports New SSBNs, Details Sang-O Intruder. Jane's Defence Weekly. Barbara Starr, Feb 26, 1997, p 5 According to 'Worldwide Submarine Challenges,' the annual assessment by the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), China continues to proceed with the design of the Type 094 SSBN. The Type 094, to be built in the next century, will carry the JL-2 ballistic missile with a range of 4,000nm. "When deployed, this missile will allow the Chinese SSBNs to target portions of the US for the first time from operating areas located near the Chinese coast."

Iraqi Missiles 'No Threat'. Jane's Intelligence Review, Mar 01, 1997, p 98 Rolf Ekeus denied rumors that Iraq was developing missiles with ranges greater than 150 km. He believed that there may be between 6 and 16 missiles hidden but that they were not currently in a position of developing long range missile capability.

Decline And Fall -- Reform Is Finally In Sight. Jane's Intelligence Review. Mark Galeotti, Mar 01, 1997, p 99-101 Among the elements that Igor Rodinov, Russia's defense minister, has planned is a reduction over the next four years of up to 30 percent or the armed forces and shadow armies. Reform efforts are hampered by political and international concerns. The various missile forces may be merged into a single unit.

SSDC: ASAT Needed For Denial Of Sat Recon. Military Space, Mar 03, 1997, p 1 The US Army SSDC released a $35m increment to a previously awarded $43.9m contract to Boeing North American for an operational control system and technology demonstration for an ASAT capability. The Army said the growing "spread of space based photograph" has lead to a concern that "hostile satellite reconnaissance could be used against the US and allied military forces in the future."

Satellite Export Change Poses Transfer Concerns. Military Space, Mar 03, 1997, p 1, 7-8 The Clinton administration's late 1996 change of control of communication satellite exports from the State Dept. to the Commerce Dept. remains a touchy subject with the release of a new GAO report warning that the change could result in a de facto change in US space technology licensing policy, giving US business interests more clout while lessening embedded technology transfer concerns.