DATE=12/16/96
TYPE=YEARENDER
NUMBER=5-35230
TITLE=96: U-S ARMS CONTROL
BYLINE=DAVID GOLLUST
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: IT WAS A DIFFICULT YEAR FOR THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IN ARMS CONTROL. THE START-TWO NUCLEAR ARMS REDUCTION ACCORD WAS APPROVED BY THE U-S SENATE, BUT STALLED IN THE RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT. THERE WERE ALSO SETBACKS FOR GLOBAL TREATIES BANNING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR TESTING. V-O-A'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS FROM THE PENTAGON.
TEXT: THE YEAR BEGAN ON A PROMISING NOTE WITH THE U-S SENATE OVERWHELMINGLY RATIFYING THE START-TWO TREATY. BUT THE ACCORD BECAME STALLED IN THE RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT -- THE DUMA -- A VICTIM FIRST OF RUSSIAN ELECTION POLITICS, AND THEN OPPOSITION IN MOSCOW TO NATO EXPANSION.
START-TWO -- WHICH WOULD SLASH THE NUCLEAR ARSENALS OF THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA BY TWO-THIRDS DURING SEVEN YEARS -- IS VIEWED WITH SUSPICION BY NATIONALIST AND COMMUNIST MEMBERS OF THE DUMA.
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN PLEDGED ORIGINALLY TO GET DUMA RATIFICATION BY APRIL. BUT THE TREATY WAS SIDELINED IN PARLIAMENT AMID MR. YELTSIN'S TOUGH ELECTION CAMPAIGN AGAINST COMMUNIST GENNADY ZHUGANOV. BY THE TIME THE ELECTION PROCESS WAS COMPLETED IN JULY, MR. YELTSIN WAS IN ILL HEALTH AND UNABLE TO ADVANCE THE TREATY OR ANY OTHER PART OF HIS LEGISLATIVE AGENDA.
DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM PERRY WENT TO MOSCOW IN LATE OCTOBER TO MAKE AN UNPRECEDENTED DIRECT APPEAL APPEAL TO THE DUMA FOR RATIFICATION. HE WAS CONFRONTED WITH COMPLAINTS NOT ONLY ABOUT NATO'S PLANS, BUT ALSO THAT THE TREATY WOULD REQUIRE MOSCOW TO MAKE COSTLY UPGRADES IN ITS LAND-BASED MISSILE FORCE.
AT A MOSCOW NEWS CONFERENCE, MR. PERRY SAID THE UNITED STATES WAS READY -- UPON RUSSIAN RATIFICATION -- TO NEGOTIATE EVEN DEEPER CUTS UNDER A START-THREE ACCORD, TO SPARE RUSSIA THE EXPENSE.
MY RECOMMENDATION TO THE DUMA WAS THAT THEY NOT ENTAIL THOSE COSTS. WE CAN, AND WE ARE ANXIOUS, TO NEGOTIATE START-THREE IMMEDIATELY AFTER RATIFICATION OF START-TWO AND WE CAN DRAW-DOWN FURTHER SO IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO BUILD. THE BIGGEST COMPONENT IN THEIR COST CALCULATION IS THE COST TO BUILD MANY HUNDREDS -- MAYBE EVEN A THOUSAND -- NEW GROUND-BASED MISSILES. AND THAT, I BELIEVE IS AN UNNECESSARY COST.
IN A GESTURE AIMED PARTLY AT START-TWO OPPONENTS IN RUSSIA, NATO FOREIGN MINISTERS PROMISED IN DECEMBER NOT TO DEPLOY NUCLEAR ARMS IN ANY OF THE FORMER WARSAW PACT COUNTRIES GRANTED NATO MEMBERSHIP.
BUT THERE WAS NO SIGN OF EARLY DUMA RATIFICATION.
THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION WAS ALSO DEALT AN ARMS CONTROL SETBACK AT HOME IN SEPTEMBER WHEN IT HAD TO SCUTTLE EFFORTS TO GET SENATE RATIFICATION FOR THE GLOBAL TREATY BANNING CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BOB DOLE -- WHO HAD NOT PREVIOUSLY OPPOSED THE ACCORD -- URGED HIS FORMER SENATE COLLEAGUES TO OPPOSE IT ON GROUNDS IT WOULD IMPOSE CRIPPLING RESTRICTIONS ON THE U-S CHEMICAL INDUSTRY.
UNABLE TO COUNT ON A TWO-THIRDS SENATE MAJORITY FOR RATIFICATION, THE ADMINISTRATION PULLED BACK THE TREATY. THE ACCORD IS TO GO INTO FORCE INTERNATIONALLY EARLY IN THE COMING YEAR WITH THE UNITED STATES EXCLUDED FROM THE VERIFICATION REGIME.
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTMENT FOR THE WHITE HOUSE WAS THE FAILURE OF THE GENEVA DISARMAMENT CONFERENCE -- DESPITE ALMOST THREE-YEARS OF NEGOTIATIONS -- TO PRODUCE A UNANIMOUS ENDORSEMENT OF A TREATY BANNING NUCLEAR TESTING.
INDIA -- INSISTING ON A NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT TIMETABLE BY THE FIVE NUCLEAR POWERS -- FOLLOWED THROUGH A THREAT TO BLOCK CONSENSUS.
THE ACCORD WAS ENDORSED BY AN OVERWHELMING U-N GENERAL ASSEMBLY VOTE IN SEPTEMBER, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE FULL FORCE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW BECAUSE OF THE INDIAN STANCE. (SIGNED)
NEB/DAG/RAE
16-Dec-96 7:07 PM EST (0007 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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