Yulia Tymoshenko: a prison term is no reason to stop the presidential race
14 February 2014, 15:44
The former prime minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko has invited President Viktor Yanukovich to take part in the discussion "of the tactical and strategic steps to lead the country out of the crisis". The head of the country has not responded to that invitation so far, but if he does agree, that could overshadow all the speeches of the Maidan leaders combined. Despite being behind bars, the most popular opposition leader's ratings continue to climb. Actually, it is her imprisonment that is helping her to stay in the fight for power. And in the event of her liberation the political picture in Ukraine could change drastically.
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko entered politics back in the 1990s after leaving the position as the head of the industrial and financial corporation United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU). Her political career started in the position as people's deputy, then she became the leader of the Yulia Tymoshenko Block and the party Batkivshchina (Fatherland) that was a part of the block. In October 2011 she was sentenced to seven years in prison for abuse of power during the signing of the gas supply contracts with Russia. But Tymoshenko is not planning to give up her position.
Currently she is not only an opposition leader, but also a symbol of political resistance. The prison term is the only thing that holds her back from taking part in the presidential elections. But if she finds herself out of prison she could easily win over most of the ratings of the current opposition leaders and come close to those of Yanukovich, or even surpass him. However, one must admit that even in prison the former prime minister continues to give instructions to the opposition. Recently, she addressed her party members demanding that they stop all negotiations with the authorities and give up the idea of going back to the 2004 Constitution, which deprives the head of state of a greater part of authority. Naturally, why would someone who is trying to become president give up unlimited power beforehand, says Alexander Gusev, director of the Institute for Strategic Planning.
"Naturally, she still has her presidential plans. And if she were set free and could take part in the elections, then if she won the elections she could become a full-power president and not a president with limited capabilities. That is why her release could mix up the cards for the opposition".
And now the situation in her block is complicated. Yulia Tymoshenko is still limited in what she can do. Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the head of the Batkivshchina faction in the parliament, ignores her demands, specifically as far as the 2004 Constitution issue goes. But staying in prison Tymoshenko continues to use well-tested technologies and does not forget to remind people of her own existence by interfering in the political process. Below is the commentary of Sergey Chernyakhovsky, PhD in political science.
"It is merely a beautiful pose to call for a rebellion being in prison. It is especially beautiful as on the one hand, since you are calling for a fight being in prison, she has not surrendered, and on the other hand, when you are looked after and protected by a whole network of various Western organizations and the authorities would not risk doing anything to you".
That image is favorable not only for Tymoshenko herself, but also for her associates, while she is still in prison. Speaking on behalf of the opposition at large, Yatsenyuk and Klitschko have successfully used her image as a trump card in their negotiations with the authorities and the West for their own ambitions. That is why for their political career it is better that Tymoshenko stay behind the bars as long as possible. That is why despite the usual rhetoric none of the prominent politicians are taking any concrete steps to free Tymoshenko – it is currently not beneficial to anybody, thinks Vsevolod Veselov, an expert at the Moscow State University.
"If she were set free they would lose the symbol of the presence of political prisoners in Ukraine. Secondly, Tymoshenko would attempt to consolidate her party, the Yulia Tymoshenko Block. Taking into account that Klitschko is playing on the electoral field of Tymoshenko, he would not benefit from that. The same goes for the other opposition leaders".
The results of the latest polls taken among the residents of Ukraine show that the number of those who support the protests and those who are absolutely opposed to them is about the same. The ratings of the current authorities and the opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko do not differ much either – about as many Ukrainians are prepared to vote for him as for Viktor Yanukovich. However, Yulia Tymoshenko's release would radically change the current distribution of power.
Maria Balyabina
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