Analysis: Post-Orange Ukraine
Council on Foreign Relations
August 15, 2006
Prepared by: Lionel Beehner
Economist John Kenneth Galbraith once likened a successful revolution to "the kicking in of a rotten door." In the case of Ukraine, though, one might say the rotten door has swung back in full force, given the dismantling of the coalition that carried out the Orange Revolution. The ringleaders of the 2004 revolution proved ineffective and out-of-touch, resorting more to political infighting and settling scores than improving Ukrainians' livelihoods. With pro-Kremlin Viktor Yanukovich back in the prime minister's saddle, Ukraine looks poised to rejoin Moscow's orbit (CSMonitor) after a period of closer ties with organizations like the European Union and NATO. Yanukovich is currently in Russia meeting with President Vladimir Putin to renegotiate a more favorable energy deal for Ukraine (BBC).
The collapse of the Orange Revolution has created a stir among democracy activists across the post-Soviet space. After all, if Ukraine, a country in Europe's backyard with relative freedom of the press and a vibrant opposition, can't sustain a pro-democratic revolution, what hope is there for Belarus, Kazakhstan, or any other country where opposition groups have begun clamoring for more freedoms? "It will be seen very negatively by opposition groups [in the region] that had hoped to follow the path of the Orange Revolution," George Washington University's Taras Kuzio tells CFR.org.
However, some experts tell RFE/RL that Ukraine's reorientation toward Russia should not have a noticeable effect on its post-Soviet neighbors. Nor will the revolution's demise result in a firm tilt away from Brussels toward Moscow.
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Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.
