Analysis: In Ukraine, 'Orange' Setback
Council on Foreign Relations
Updated: March 27, 2006
Author: Michael Moran
Democratic ardor has been abundant in Ukraine in recent years. The 2004 "Orange Revolution" brought tens of thousands into the streets to overturn a corrupt old guard, which had held sway since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. It struck fear into the hearts of autocrats elsewhere, the legend goes, and inspired similar efforts of varying success in Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, and Belarus, to name a few examples. Yet Sunday's parliamentary election is not likely to please the ardent. Voting took place Sunday in a three-way race between the party of reformist President Viktor Yushchenko, an estranged faction led by a former " Orange" comrade, and the old guard itself—which is leading in early vote counts (BBC).
What happened? A wide range of Ukraine experts and local analysts say the "Orange Revolution" basically imploded (Guardian). Just a few short months after triumphantly leading street protests that forced a recount of the fixed 2004 vote, "the heroes of the revolution, current President Viktor Yuschenko and former prime minister Julia Timoshenko, fell out with one another" (Radio Netherlands).
The split in the "reform" movement and a sluggish economy revived support for Viktor Yanukovich, the pro-Moscow former president accused of rigging the last vote. Preliminary returns indicate his Party of Regions likely won't be able to win enough seats in the country's 450-seat parliament to form a majority, making a coalition between some combination of the three main parties necessary. Attention is focusing on whether Yushchenko and Timoshenko are able to reunite their Orange coalition again (RFE/RL).
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