Taiwan's opposition KMT, TPP regroup as they try to defeat DPP: Analysts
ROC Central News Agency
11/24/2023 10:40 PM
Taipei, Nov. 24 (CNA) Taiwan's main opposition parties Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) must develop a new strategy if they want to defeat the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), now that they have failed to form a joint ticket, solidifying the Jan. 13 presidential election into a three-way race, analysts said.
KMT's VP pick to consolidate party base
Joining the race at the last minute as KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih's (侯友宜) running mate, Jaw Shau-kong (趙少康) on Friday called on supporters to regroup without hesitation.
"The blue camp is urged to regroup, and there should be no room for alternative thinking. We must consolidate our will, concentrate our strength, and unite our votes; only then can we emerge victorious," Jaw said, referring to the color that denotes the KMT.
A source within the KMT told CNA that having Jaw, 73, run alongside Hou would significantly "strengthen the party's support base," creating opportunities for it to "strategically leverage votes" in its favor during the later stages of the election.
A founding member of the minor New Party, a pro-unification force that emerged as a spin-off from the KMT in 1993 during the party's shift towards localization, Jaw is considered an "emblematic figure" representing the ideology of the blue camp, a KMT source said.
With his deep-blue political stance, Jaw holds more appeal for voters in the northern region of Taiwan and can thus complement Hou, who aligns more with the localized faction within the KMT and can appeal to voters in the central and southern regions, the source said.
Known for his eloquence, Jaw, chairman of Taiwan's Broadcasting Corporation of China and veteran political talk show host, can also assist in articulating the campaign's narrative, capturing media attention, and generating voter enthusiasm, a KMT source said.
Expressing confidence in the election, Jaw said that the KMT has a good opportunity to win the election with a 45 percent share of votes, contingent on "strategic voting" that would cause Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) of the TPP to secure less than 20 percent, and prevent the DPP from growing its share to more than the current 35 percent, which is composed only of its support base.
Is "strategic voting" among KMT, TPP possible?
The KMT is expected to try the method of "strategic voting," meaning it will try to win over some of Ko's supporters.
In contrast to the KMT's assessment, Wang Yeh-lih (王業立), a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said that the KMT's hopes may be hard to achieve "given that the support rates for both parties (KMT and TPP) are approximately equal."
Furthermore, a significant proportion of Ko supporters tend to dislike both the KMT and the DPP and that could pose a considerable challenge for a substantial transfer of Ko's voters to Hou, even if Ko were to rank third, Wang told CNA in an interview on Friday.
Some of Ko's supporters might opt to shift their allegiance to Vice President and DPP candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) if they perceive Ko as having little chance of winning, Wang added.
The 2000 presidential race that saw the DPP's Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) elected with 39.3 percent of the votes, defeating the KMT's Lien Chan (連戰) and the People First Party's James Soong (宋楚瑜), serves as a reminder that votes can be split pretty evenly in a three-way race, he said.
Lai has maintained a stable lead with approximately 36 percent of support over the course of the past year based on various opinion polls, Wang said, and there's a possibility that Lai, along with his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), Taiwan's former representative to the United States, could win over 40 percent of vote shares.
Echoing Wang's view, Shen Yu-chung (沈有忠), a political science professor at Tunghai University, said recent polls showed that Hou's support has rebounded, but the gap between him and Ko was not significant enough for leveraging "strategic voting."
Challenges for DPP, TPP to galvanize young voters
Having failed to pair up with Hou on a joint ticket, Ko on Friday revealed that his pick for vice president was Wu Hsin-ying (吳欣盈), who until November 2022 had served in various executive positions in established companies, including Merrill Lynch and Shin Kong Life Insurance, before she filled a vacant at-large seat occupied by the TPP in the Legislature.
The TPP has praised 45-year-old Wu for her extensive experience and competence in managing international affairs, and financial expertise, which complements Ko's skills.
However, Dachi Liao (廖達琪), an emeritus professor at National Sun Yat-sen University's Graduate Institute of Political Science, told CNA that Wu's lack of experience in politics could limit her ability to solicit votes for the Ko-Wu ticket.
Additionally, Liao expressed skepticism about whether Wu's status as a member of the wealthy elite would win her much popular support. Wu is the eldest daughter of former Hsin Kong Financial Holding Co. Chairman Eugene Wu (吳東進).
Swing voters, predominantly young people, play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of Taiwan's elections and the same is expected to be true in the upcoming presidential and legislative elections in January 2024.
Scholars, however, share similar views that both Lai and Ko face difficulties in mobilizing young voters to cast their ballots for them.
Contrary to the 2020 elections, where young people actively voted for President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in support of her pro-Taiwan stance amid escalating tensions with China, Wang suggested that they might not feel as compelled to vote in a three-way race where Lai is likely to win.
Meanwhile, Shen said that while Ko enjoys stronger support among young swing voters, voter turnout of the group is often not guaranteed to be high.
(By Kao Hua-chien, Liu Kuan-ting, Fang Cheng-hsiang, Sean Lin and Shih Hsiu-chuan)
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