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From Chinese scholars on Taiwan, mixed views of cross-strait ties

ROC Central News Agency

2016/05/23 23:04:04

Beijing, May 23 (CNA) Chinese scholars on Monday had mixed views of cross-Taiwan Strait relations following the inauguration of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on May 20, but the majority opinion was that bilateral ties were in for a bumpy ride, at least in the near future.

Zhu Weidong (朱衛東), deputy director of the Taiwan Research Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at a forum in Beijing that cross-strait relations are at a crossroads, and if Taiwan veers away from the correct road, the path it takes will certainly be bumpy.

Because Tsai did not make clear her stance on the 1992 consensus in her inauguration speech, the cross-strait relationship could enter an uncertain phase, and to what extent the relationship deteriorates will hinge on Taiwan's stance toward the consensus, Zhu said.

Beijing has insisted that Tsai's government accept the "1992 consensus" that underpinned Taiwan-China relations during the eight years her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), was in office, something she and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have been unwilling to do.

Likening Taiwan and China to two trains, Zhu said that if the trains collide, Taiwan will be the bigger loser.

May 20 could be a turning point from which Taiwan's national power declines, and if the two sides continue grappling with each other, Taiwan will gradually lose its bargaining chips vis a vis China and cross-strait ties will enter a vicious cycle, Zhu contended.

Li Yihu (李義虎), the head of Peking University's Institute of Taiwan Studies, said that while cross-strait relations may not undergo earthshaking changes, they are unlikely to develop smoothly given the greater uncertainty that exists.

Regarding Tsai's inauguration speech, Li argued that while Tsai adjusted her comments on the 1992 consensus, they were still not satisfactory.

He said he would continue to observe what she does rather than listen to what she says because she might adopt a strategy of "no talking but just taking action" in pushing her cross-strait policy.

Li said Taiwan's approach to issues such as the South China Sea and the East China Sea and how Tsai will treat desinicization and pro-Taiwan independence forces will be key areas that should be observed.

Huang Jiashu, a professor of Renmin University of China's School of International Studies, said that in the past, Taiwan's mainstream public opinion was maintaining the cross-strait status quo of "no unification, no independence, and no use of force."

After the peaceful development of cross-strait ties over the past seven years, however, Taiwan's mainstream public opinion has become "anti-unification and tolerance of independence" or "resistance to unification and de facto independence," Huang said.

With the rise of Taiwan's pro-independence forces on cross-strait relations, China has to uphold its "one China" principle bottom line, Huang argued.

(By Yin Chun-chieh and Evelyn Kao)
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