U.S. scholar: arms deal with Taiwan could be bargaining chip
ROC Central News Agency
2009/11/12 19:53:29
Taipei, Nov. 12 (CNA) On the eve of a visit to China by U.S. President Barack Obama, a U.S. scholar said proposed U.S. arms sales to Taiwan could serve as leverage to ease tension across the Taiwan Strait.
Dennis V. Hickey, a professor of political science at Missouri State University, said in an article published in the Los Angeles Times Tuesday that Obama wants to enhance ties with Beijing in an effort to solve a series of international problems, including the financial crisis and nuclear proliferation in North Korea, but Beijing's chief concern will be U.S. military support for Taiwan.
He said American arms sales to Taiwan hold the potential to jeopardize Sino-American relations. But there is a way for Washington to use military arms to turn this situation into a scenario beneficial to the U.S., China and Taiwan.
He noted that relations between Taiwan and China have improved handsomely over the last year, with both sides hammering out pacts to increase trade, tourism exchanges and to provide for improved postal services and food safety cooperation.
He cited as examples the fact that Beijing agreed to Taipei's participation as an observer in the World Health Assembly (WHA) as "Chinese Taipei" earlier this year, while Taipei has junked its quixotic campaign to rejoin the United Nations and a free-trade pact is on the horizon, with both sides also talking about a peace agreement.
Despite these positive trends, however, U.S. military support for Taiwan remains the most sensitive and volatile issue in Sino-American relations, he said.
During the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign, Obama endorsed the Bush administration's decision to sell US$6.5 billion-worth of arms to Taiwan. But Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain called for a more robust weapons package -- a position embraced by arms merchants and many of Taipei's friends in Washington. They are now calling on the U.S. to sell 66 upgraded F-16 warplanes to Taiwan for up to US$4.9 billion. The Obama administration has yet to decide whether it will approve the contentious sale.
"The problem is that Beijing would consider any sale of advanced fighters to Taipei as extremely provocative and it is probable that such a deal would lead to an escalation in tension with Taiwan. And U.S. military officials have warned that the sale could also severely strain Sino-American relations at a time when Washington requires Beijing's support to cope with a host of international challenges," Hickey said.
"Obama should not bow to Chinese pressure and scuttle the idea of the F-16 sale. Rather, the warplanes should be used as bargaining chips," Hickey said.
He said the U.S. ought to explore the possibility of agreeing to a deal similar to that proposed by former Chinese President Jiang Zemin to President George Bush in 2002 -- namely, that the U.S.
should agree not to sell advanced fighters to Taiwan in exchange for the removal of the 1,500 ballistic missiles that China has deployed directly opposite Taiwan.
"Such an initiative could yield numerous dividends, " Hickey added.
It is likely that Beijing would seriously consider this proposal, because removal of the missiles would generate a lot of goodwill among the Taiwanese people and the weapons could no longer be cited by Taiwan's politicians as evidence of Beijing's hostility, he said.
Taiwan has repeatedly stated that China must either "remove or dismantle" the missiles as a precondition for any negotiations toward a peace agreement.
In Taiwan, he added, removal of the missiles would provide officials with tangible evidence that the policy of cooperation and conciliation with China is working and that the current leaders would be able to more easily move forward with other measures aimed at rapprochement and enhance their prospects for re-election.
U.S. officials have long emphasized that arms sales to Taiwan can serve as a stabilizing factor in East Asian affairs. In this instance, approval of the high-profile F-16 sale would jeopardize relations with Beijing, undermine core American interests and help spark an arms race across the Taiwan Strait, according to Hickey. But if Washington uses the prospect of dropping such sales as a bargaining chip to persuade China to remove the missiles, it would help reduce cross-strait tension, paving the way for closer Sino- American relations and promoting peace and stability in the Western Pacific, he said.
As part of a four-nation Asian tour, Obama will arrive in Shanghai Nov. 15 on a four-day visit to China. He is scheduled to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao Nov. 17 for talks on a wide range of issues of mutual concern.
(By Bear Lee) ENDITEM/J
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