Cross-strait military balance tilting toward China: U.S. report
ROC Central News Agency
2009/03/26 15:07:06
Washington, March 25 (CNA) China has continued its military modernization and remains a threat to Taiwan, with the military balance continuing to shift in Beijing's favor, despite reduced tensions in the region over the past year, according to an annual report released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Defense.
The report on China's military power noted that the security situation in the Taiwan Strait has entered "a period of relaxing tensions" since the election of President Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan in March 2008.
"However, to date, there have been no meaningful actions on the part of the mainland to reduce its military presence directly opposite Taiwan," the report said.
With China's armed forces rapidly developing coercive capabilities for the purpose of deterring Taiwan's pursuit of de jure independence, more advanced missiles, more equipment and better-trained troops have been deployed to the military regions opposite Taiwan, it stated.
The report revealed that Taiwan no longer enjoys "air dominance" over the Taiwan Strait, and stated that China has 330 fighters, 160 bombers and attack aircraft, and 40 transport aircraft within range of Taiwan.
The development of its coercive capabilities "underscores that Beijing remains unwilling to renounce the use of force, " although it professes a desire for peaceful unification, according to the report.
"These same capabilities could in the future be used to pressure Taiwan toward a settlement of the cross-strait dispute on Beijing's terms while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay or deny any possible U.S. support for the island in case of conflict," the report said.
According to the report, the circumstances, or "red lines," under which China has warned it would use force include formal declaration of Taiwan independence, undefined moves toward Taiwan independence and indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-strait dialogue on unification.
Other scenarios mentioned are internal unrest in Taiwan, Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons, foreign intervention in Taiwan's internal affairs and foreign troops stationed in Taiwan.
Furthermore, the "Anti-Secession Law" enacted in March 2005 states that Beijing may use "non-peaceful means" if "secessionist forces... cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China;" if "major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession" occur; or if "possibilities for peaceful unification" are exhausted, the report pointed out.
One major deterrent to military action by China against Taiwan may be the fact that China does not yet possess the military capability to invade and conquer the island, particularly when confronted with the prospect of U.S. intervention, the report said.
Other factors include the potential political and economic repercussions of a military conflict with Taiwan, the possible damage to the image that Beijing has sought to project through its "Harmonious World" campaign, and the possibility of a long-term hostile relationship between the United States and China -- a result that would not be in China's interests, it said.
The report mentioned that Taiwan recently reversed the trend of the past several years of declining defense expenditures and is modernizing select capabilities and improving its overall contingency training.
Also, consistent with the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States continues to make available defense items, services and training assistance to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability, the report said.
The report said China's transparency has improved over the past year, "but much remains to be learned about China's national and military strategies, progress and trends in its military modernization, and the related implications for regional security and stability."
The budget of China's People's Liberation Army has more than doubled over the past eight years, from US$27.9 billion in 2000 to US$60.1 billion in 2008, the report said. Analysis of 1996-2008 data indicates that China's officially disclosed defense budget grew at an average of 12.9 percent in real terms over the period, it added.
The figures, however, could be significantly under-reported, the report said, estimating that China's total military-related spending for 2008 ranged between US$105 billion and US$150 billion.
Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said Washington continues to ask for "more dialogue and transparency in our dealings with the Chinese government and military, all in an effort to reduce suspicions on both sides." (By Chiehyu Lin and Y.F. Low) ENDITEM /pc
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