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Analysis: Discord in the Strait

Council on Foreign Relations

February 10, 2008
Author: Jayshree Bajoria

March 22 looks to be a big day in Taiwan. That’s the day the island’s two major political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), face off in presidential elections. But the vote getting most of the international attention, particularly from across the Taiwan Strait in Beijing, are two referendum questions proposing Taiwan apply for UN membership (BBC). The two questions reflect the each party’s particular vision of Taiwan’s future. The referendum designed by the DPP, which favors independence for Taiwan, asks whether the government should seek to join the United Nations in the name of Taiwan. The KMT, which wants closer ties with China, will ask whether the island should seek to return to the United Nations with a pragmatic and flexible approach using Republic of China, its official name, Taiwan, or any other suitable designation.

These nuances apparently are lost on Beijing, which claimed the Chinese seat at the United Nations in 1971. China’s government has publicly warned Taiwan (Reuters) it may pay a heavy cost for its UN vote. Russia, Australia and United States have also condemned the idea, which the United States calls provocative (WashPost).

This latest round of heightened tensions across the strait has once again raised fears of armed hostilities between China and Taiwan, with all the geopolitical repercussions that would have for the United States and its allies in the Pacific Rim. Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte, in an interview with CFR.org, says the United States is concerned about the “military buildup on the PRC’s side of the strait.”

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.