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NO CROSS-STRAIT MILITARY CONFLICT IN COMING TWO YEARS: NSB HEAD

ROC Central News Agency

2006-03-22 19:27:11

    Taipei, March 22 (CNA) Military conflict between Taiwan and China will not be possible in the coming two years unless "contingencies break out in the region, " but cross-Taiwan Strait relations will remain tense, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director Hsueh Shih-min predicted Wednesday.

    Hsueh made the remarks while giving a special report on "risks of war in case of a referendum on a new Constitution and Taiwan's possible response measures" at a meeting of the National Defense Committee at the Legislative Yuan.

    Hsueh ruled out the possibility of war between Taiwan and China in the coming two years, despite the fact that various major variables that might jeopardize the cross-strait situation remain in place, such as a widening military imbalance between the two sides, the role of the United States as a deterrent in preventing war in the strait, power struggles and rising nationalism in China and the political situation in Taiwan.

    Hsueh said that according to a Beijing internal assessment, President Chen Shui-bian's decision in late February to cease the function of the National Unification Council and its guidelines has not crossed the "red line" to de-jure Taiwan independence laid out in China's Anti-Secession Law that would authorize Beijing to use force against Taiwan.

    If Taiwan does not further its moves toward formal independence in planned constitutional amendments, such as changing the country's official title, its national flag and territory, China is not expected to act rashly against Taiwan, he said.

    Hsueh cited two other reasons to back his forecast that China would not ignite a cross-strait conflict in the coming two years: China needs political stability prior to its 17th plenary session of the National People's Congress in autumn next year that will touch on the Communist Party of China's (CPC) power transfer, and that China will host the Olympic Games in 2008.

    In addition, Hsueh said, the preventive diplomacy strategy maintained by the United States in the strait will not allow either side to unilaterally alter the cross-strait status quo.

    But Taiwan still needs to guard against China's rising hostile sentiments against Taiwan fanned by CPC hardliners and radical nationalist elements, as China has never relented in its threats to use military means against Taiwan, he pointed out.

    He warned that military gap between the two sides is set to further widen by the end of this year after the People's Liberation Army receives advanced weapons, including Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines and modern destroyers from Russia.

(By Flor Wang)

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