TAIWAN NEEDS TO DEVELOP PRE-EMPTIVE MISSILE ATTACK ABILITY: DPP
2003-12-19 18:30:37
Taipei, Dec. 19 (CNA) A report said Friday that Taiwan must establish a pre-emptive missile attack ability as the military balance of the Taiwan Strait is gradually tilting toward mainland China.
The report conducted by the Institute for Taiwan Defense and Strategic Studies, a private research institute, also predicted that the next cross-strait war will be between 2005 and 2010.
Chen Chung-shin, director of the Department of China Affairs of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) , claimed that the report, drawn up at the commission of his department, is the "most comprehensive" report on mainland Chinese military force by the private sector, which does not include reports by the Ministry of National Defense and national security authorities.
According to the report, Beijing currently deploys 450 short-range ballistic missiles along the coast of Fujian Province, a number that is expected to increase to 650 by 2005. Beijing also deploys cruise missiles that can reach their chosen targets in seven minutes, giving Taiwan only five minutes to respond.
The reports also said that in addition to the development of its own J-10 second-generation fighter planes, Beijing has also purchased advanced fighters such as the Su-27 and the Su-30 from Russia, and is expected to deploy 130 and 150 of these fighters, respectively, by 2005.
This, together with the mainland's H-6 bombers, means that Taiwan will gradually lose its air supremacy, the report claims. It will only take 17 minutes for Beijing fighters to take off from coastal areas of Fujian and reach Taiwan, giving the country only five minutes to 15 minutes to respond.
On the mainland's navy, the report said that Beijing is building its own battleships and has also purchased four modern destroyers fitted with supersonic anti-ship missiles, C-802 anti-ship missiles, as well as Kilo-class submarines which posed a great threat to Taiwan's second-generation battleships.
More importantly, according to the report, Beijing has learned from the U.S.-Iraq wars and has since 1994 gradually established a rapid deployment force that is expected to reach 500,000 strong, which together with its naval and air forces, could pose a major threat to Taiwan.
The report claims that Beijing will launch a seven-minute blitz attack on Taiwan to paralyze its command and control system and obtain air supremacy in 17 minutes. As for how many hours it would take to parachute in military forces and how many days it would take to exclude the intervention of the United States, this would hinge on the military might of Taiwan and the response time of the United States, according to the report.
Legislator Lee Wen-chung of the DPP noted that growth in mainland China's defense spending has exceeded double digits for the 10th consecutive year. The United States has estimated that mainland military expenditure is US$20 billion annually, but if military budget under other names is also counted it could reach up to US$60 billion. While the annual defense budget of Taiwan is only US$8 billion a year, half of this is in personnel expenditure.
According to Lee, the mainland deploys 496 short-range missiles along its coastal areas, but according to studies by the United States, the number has been increasing by 65 annually, and this does not include the m-missiles and cruise missiles.
In the long-run, Taiwan will be unable to compete with the mainland in the arms race, Lee claimed. "Faced with the military imbalance in the Taiwan Strait, " Lee said that Taiwan should adopt a two-pronged military and non-military approach.
He said that military approach means that Taiwan should research and develop pre-emptive missiles. The non-military approach will be to demand that Beijing withdraw its missiles aimed at Taiwan through a "defensive referendum, " drawing the attention of the international community so as to put political pressure on Beijing.
(By Lilian Wu)
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