Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=12-10-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-833

TITLE=CHINA-TAIWAN

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTRODUCTION

David Michael Lampton, Professor and Director of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Director of China Studies at the Nixon Center, discusses U.S. relations with both Mainland China and Taiwan.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us, Professor David Lampton, Professor and Director of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies here in Washington. The Professor was fortunate enough to be at that dinner last night, so let me ask you what that protestor there was asking or commenting on. The President of the United States wants democracy in Iraq; why not for Taiwan?

PROFESSOR LAMPTON

Well, certainly the President wasn't criticizing democracy in Taiwan. The people in Taiwan are entitled to have any policy they wish, and they can have a referendum. But there is no obligation to the United States to commit its troops or its military forces to the defense of every decision the people of Taiwan make. We offer no country in the world that kind of blank check.

And I think what the President was saying in unmistakable words is if the interests of the United States are going to be affected by what you do, we have an obligation to our own people and a responsibility to articulate our interests. And if you, in light of our interests, proceed in the direction you are, then you must know that our support will be reduced by virtue of your decisions.

So I think it's respecting the right to make decisions; it's just stating the obvious, that the United States is under no particular obligation to follow every decision the people of Taiwan might make. And the United States has an act, called the Taiwan Relations Act. Many people think this is some kind of defense treaty. It is not a treaty. And it does not obligate the United States to any particular action if Taiwan were to be attacked or coerced.

What the Taiwan Relations Act obligates the United States and the President to do is maintain sufficient capability in the United States to respond in the event there is a need. But it does not define those conditions under which we need to respond.

MR. BORGIDA

Let's talk for a moment, Professor, about just a little bit of the background, for our viewing audience to understand this. In your view, as the President remarked just the other day, this is kind of getting U.S. policy back I guess, as you put it, to the center in a way. Bring us up to date on that so that we understand this in context.

PROFESSOR LAMPTON

Well, the policy that President Bush yesterday articulated~-- that is, the United States is opposed to anything that upsets the status quo in the Taiwan Strait -- that policy goes back to the 1970's, with Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter. It has been followed by seven administrations. If there was a departure, it wasn't yesterday, but it was when President Bush came into office. He was initially I think very predisposed towards Taiwan, favorably disposed, and he wanted to make it unmistakably clear to the People's Republic of China, the mainland of China, that if they attack, as he put it, the United States will do what it takes to help Taiwan defend herself. That's the way he put it.

This did have the effect of telling the PRC that they better be careful in the use of force or coercion. He got that part of the message across, but inadvertently he stimulated Taiwan's President I believe to think there was no limit to American support. And so progressively, after that statement, for the last 18 months, President Chen has been pushing harder and harder, in an increasingly inconvenient circumstance for the United States. We're in Afghanistan, we're in Iraq, we've got a problem with North Korea; the United States does not need another crisis. And I think the President determined that President Chen was pushing us in a direction that just might end up in a crisis. And so what he did yesterday is restore a policy that has existed through seven administrations and which I think ill-advisedly he had upset earlier in his administration.

MR. BORGIDA

But if this referendum goes forward, in March I believe --

PROFESSOR LAMPTON

Right.

MR. BORGIDA

Are we to see in the weeks leading up to this March referendum a ratcheting up of tension between China and Taiwan? And indeed if it does occur, what will then happen? Can you look into your crystal ball and give us a sense of that?

PROFESSOR LAMPTON

I think there are several possibilities.

MR. BORGIDA

In about a minute or so.

PROFESSOR LAMPTON

One possibility is yes, there would be a ratcheting up. But the PRC knows that if they put pressure on Chen, this helps him in his own election. And frankly, that's the last thing the PRC wants to do. So I think they will do everything they can to avoid any overreaction until the election.

More likely is the United States is going to have take some additional actions possibly towards Taiwan to make it increasingly clear that we find this not to be in our interest.

MR. BORGIDA

Professor David Lampton, Professor and Director of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies here in Washington, with the insight and context we need to understand this story. Professor Lampton, thanks for being our guest on NewsLine.

PROFESSOR LAMPTON

It's good to be with you.

(End of interview.)

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