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CHEN'S REMARKS DASH HOPES FOR THAW IN CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS: DAILY

Aug 05, 2002 16:37 UTC+0800

New York, Aug. 5 (CNA) The Asian Wall Street reported Monday that President Chen Shui-bian's sharp shift in tone toward Beijing, punctuated by his most forceful assertion yet of Taiwan's separateness from China, has effectively dashed hopes for a thaw in relations between the two sides.

Since taking office more than two years ago, Chen has been careful to hold to a middle path on the sensitive issue of Taiwan's status, the daily said.

On Saturday, Chen delivered his most defiant declaration since taking office that Taiwan is already separate from China, and that Taiwan should change its laws to allow a national referendum on the island's fate, a move that could pave the way for a popular vote on independence and almost certainly trigger deep concern in Beijing, according to the Taipei-datelined report.

The sudden change in Chen's rhetoric has left observers puzzled about his intentions, and uncertain about how China will respond, it said.

What seems clear is that a breakthrough in cross-strait relations is now unlikely during Chen's term, which ends in May 2004. In particular, some Taiwan analysts and officials say, hopes that the two sides will soon find a way to negotiate direct transportation links might be abandoned.

Chen's sudden shift is rooted in frustration that his goodwill gestures toward Beijing have not been adequately reciprocated, the daily quoted Taiwan administration officials as saying.

One administration official pointed out that when Chen said on July 21 that Taiwan might "walk its own road," it was intended to put Beijing on notice not to ignore Taiwan's good will as the island also can do something to affect the cross-strait situation.

Analysts said that Chen may also have decided that a tougher tone will benefit him in the domestic political arena, solidifying his base within his ruling Democratic Progressive Party ahead of important mayoral elections in December and his own campaign for re-election beginning next year, according to the report.

It said any push for a referendum on independence seems unlikely to be accepted in Taiwan's Legislature, where Chen's Democratic Progressive Party only controls just over a third of the seats.

Even if there were such a vote, polls consistently show that the majority of people in Taiwan would prefer to maintain the island's vague status quo rather than opt for formal independence or unification with China, it added.

(By S.C. Chang)