New York, July 29 (CNA) China is gearing up for possible military conflicts involved in deterring Taiwan independence, a feature article in the Aug. 1 issue of the Jane's International Defense Review says.
The article, titled "China's rising forces," is contributed by Yihong Zhang , a well-known Canadian military expert.
China's modernization efforts are complex and far-reaching, aiming to achieve improved war-fighting capabilities without over-dependence on imported systems, writes Zhang.
He notes that the perceptions shaping China's current military posture date from about 1995. Beijing then became increasingly aware that Taiwan's status as a separate nation, whose independence has never been recognized, may one day achieve true independence. China made the strategic decision of "speeding up preparation for military conflicts and reinforcing the military deterrence against Taiwan," according to its own military treatises.
The 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis raised military tension to a high level during a series of missiles tests by the People's Republic of China (PRC), and the deployment of a US carrier battle group further stimulated the Chinese military, which formed the impression that, if conflict breaks out in this region, US involvement would be inevitable.
As a consequence, a movement developed to study and learn from US armed forces and a series of treatises published by the Chinese military strategists almost all said that future military exercises should take the US forces as the combat targets. "If China can defeat the US forces, other countries will be no match for the Chinese military". For this purpose, China has established a training base for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Inner Mongolia, the largest of its kind in Asia. At this training center, the enemy force in training programs mainly acts out the role of US forces.
In the areas of weapon system replacement, training and education, China has started to make practical preparations for military struggle against Taiwan with an attitude of "combat readiness," says Zhang.
Strategically, China maintains the theory, "Southeast front first and west front second" ('Dong Huan Xi Ji' in Chinese), in which the number one target enemy is Taiwan; then the US and Japanese forces, followed by India, Vietnam and the separatists in Xinjiang. This reasoning has caused China to divert more financial resources to such key areas as the air force, navy and strategic missile forces as well as special force units in the army. Military budget increases have naturally leaned toward those forces.
China's military budget has been increasing at a double digit rate for 12 consecutive years, Zhang points out. The figures published in the Chinese official media clearly indicate that China's budget this year is expected to reach US$16 billion, while western observers tend to believe the actual number is at least double the officially disclosed figure. At one US congressional hearing, the CIA testified that, in the coming five years, China's military budget would double.
Due to the increased military funding, the pace of new weapon development has visibly increased in China, the article says.
China adopted a dual track system in order to accelerate the development of new weapon systems; this requires China develop its own products while at the same time importing Russian weapon systems. The main purpose is to guarantee the effectiveness of the weapon systems in case of war. In addition, a low-high combination of domestic and Russian weapon systems can be established, which will help to reduce the number of imported weapon systems or avoid over-dependence on foreign suppliers.
For instance, in the air force, at the same time as importing Russian Su-27SK and Su-30MKK combat aircraft, China has this year completed development of the J-10 fighter and JH-7A fighter-bomber, Jane's says.
(by S. C. Chang)
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