Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=7/10/2001

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=TAIWAN / NATIONALISTS

NUMBER=5-49761

BYLINE=ALISHA RYU

DATELINE=HONG KONG

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomingtang, is ready to propose that Taiwan create a confederation with China. The proposal is described as the most specific outline the party has ever submitted about reuniting the island with the communist mainland. But as V-O-A's Alisha Ryu reports, the confederation idea is getting a much better reception from Taiwanese voters than from Beijing.

TEXT: The Kuomingtang known as K-M-T or the Nationalist Party - has long said it favored Taiwan's eventual reunification with China. But the party has always preferred to leave the statement vague, saying the idea of uniting with China could not be contemplated until the mainland became a democracy like Taiwan.

In 1999, Taiwan's former president and ex-Nationalist Party chairman, Lee Teng-hui, further distanced the island from the mainland by declaring that the two sides would have a special state-to-state relationship.

The move severely angered Beijing, which still claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has repeatedly threatened to reunify the island with the mainland by force, if necessary. China and Taiwan split in 1949 when the Nationalists fled to Taiwan after their defeat by Chinese Communists.

But the new proposal raised by Nationalist Party chairman Lien Chan marks a sharp departure from Mr. Lee's policy. The proposal argues that the best option for Taiwan is to engage China by establishing military ties, forming a peace zone in the Taiwan Strait, and moving toward building a confederation. The party's National Congress is expected to endorse the idea when it meets at the end of the month.

But political scientist Kou Chien-wen at the National Chengchi University in Taipei says the proposal is doomed to fail, even if it becomes policy.

/// KOU ACT ///

The problem is that the Chinese Communist Party will not accept this idea. Under the idea of a Chinese confederation, there are two governments. But China's current Taiwan policy is "One China, one government". In Taiwan, nobody will accept the (idea of) P-R-C (People's Republic of China) government as Taiwan's central government.

/// END ACT ///

On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Zhang Qiyue, rejected the idea.

/// ZHANG ACT IN CHINESE, FADE INTO ENGLISH VOICEOVER ///

We do not favor the confederation model. "One country, two systems" safeguards national sovereignty and shows maximum flexibility. We believe this is the best way to achieve reunification.

/// END ACT ///

But many analysts believe the Nationalists' proposal is being floated for reasons other than speeding up reunification with the mainland.

Political observer Chen Don-yun at Shih Hsin University in Taipei believes the K-M-T could be using the idea to boost its support among people hit hard by Taiwan's worst economic slump in nearly two decades. A recent poll shows that an increasing number of people feel the only way to improve Taiwan's economy is to forge closer ties with Beijing.

/// CHEN ACT ///

The first impression I got when the K-M-T first proposed the confederation idea is for election needs. The Taiwanese people are thinking about future economic development of Taiwan. Globally, the Chinese market is a powerful resource. No one can ignore it. So, with that background, the K-M-T is thinking that Taiwanese public opinion probably will turn a little bit (toward the party).

/// END ACT ///

Last year, for the first time in more than five decades, the K-M-T lost the presidential elections to the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (D-P-P). With key parliamentary elections coming up in December, analysts say the Nationalists appear to be determined to win over voters who have been dissatisfied with the economic performance of President Chen Shui-bian and the pro-independence stance of his party.

The K-M-T, led by chairman Lien Chan, also needs to beef up voter support in the face of a possible split in the party at election time. Last month, former president Lee Teng-hui's on-going personal feud with Mr. Chan reached a boiling point. Tension grew within the party after he publicly threw his support behind President Chen Shui-bian. (SIGNED)

NEB/HK/AR/JO/RAE