Washington, July 17 (CNA) If cross-strait talks continue to be delayed, nationalistic calls for defending China's territorial integrity could well become the most politically popular position in Beijing, according to a renowned American specialist on Asian affairs.
"Jingoistic rhetoric could have a greater influence on policy than realistic assessments" and, therefore, the future of the cross-strait situation may become very uncertain, wrote David G. Brown, the associate director of the Asian Studies Department at The Johns Hopkins' School for Advanced International Studies.
In the latest issue of "Comparative Connections," an E-journal on East Asian bilateral relations published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Brown pointed out that management of Beijing's policy will become more difficult as the 16th Chinese Communist Party Congress scheduled for this autumn approaches.
"In Taipei, if ROC President Chen Shui-bian's conciliatory positions are rebuffed, pressure will build for him to reject what would be described as unreasonable demands from Beijing. The future is very uncertain," said the former US diplomat who had been assigned to Beijing, Taipei, and Hong Kong in the past.
Beijing has been quite unified in conveying the message that acceptance of the "one China" principle is the key precondition for talks, said Brown, adding that a variety of often contradictory actions and statements indicate that there is little consensus in Beijing on policy toward Taiwan beyond the focus on the "one China" principle.
He said recent visitors to Beijing report recognition by many mainland researchers that past policy toward Taiwan had been counterproductive, and even criticism of the Beijing leadership for adopting overly threatening tactics that are alienating Taiwan. But whether these criticisms have had any impact on leadership views is unclear.
Meanwhile, Brown wrote, in tandem with the shift in Washington's attitude toward President Chen from initial concerns, Taipei has undergone a radical change in its thinking about the US role on cross-strait issues. The Taipei government wants Washington to play a role in facilitating or jump-starting cross-strait dialogue.
"A confidence that Washington is sympathetic to democratic Taiwan and to Taipei's current approach to cross-strait relations lies behind Taipei's changed attitude. The effort to enlist US help is designed both to appeal to the US and to advance Chen's strong interest in engaging Beijing in talks on terms acceptable to Taipei," noted Brown.
Brown, who serves concurrently as the chair of East Asian Area Studies at the State of Department's Foreign Service Institute, said a great deal is at stake in the Taiwan Straits, adding that while both sides seem to be groping for a formula for talks, there is no certainty that talks will occur in the near future.
"Serious preparations for talks are not likely to begin until after the summer leadership meetings in Beidaihe. It is even less certain, if talks do occur, that they will be productive or lower tensions. The more attention that is focused on the divisive issue of sovereignty, as Beijing's policy is now, the less likely progress can be made in areas where common interests exist, most importantly in the economic sphere," wrote Brown. (By Nelson Chung)
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