Washington, Sept. 6 (CNA) One reason mainland China opposes the US National Missile Defense program is that even a relatively limited US NMD system would seriously degrade Beijing's current missile attack capabilities. But developments in recent years demonstrate that China will increase its strategic and theater range missile forces with or without US NMD deployment, noted a renowned American military expert.
Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a paper on NMD and Chinese nuclear modernization that the Taiwan issue, mainland Chinese fear of Japan and US ties to Japan, and India's weapons proliferation are all major forces likely to prompt Beijing to increase its present theater missile forces.
"The U.S. deployment of NMD and Theater Missile Defense may accelerate this process, but it is scarcely the only catalyst," he said.
Although President Bill Clinton has announced his decision not to authorize the deployment of NMD at this time, "there is little prospect that the next president can easily change China's position or resolve the issues that could lead China to increase the nuclear missile forces it targets on the US and targets in Asia," said the former assistant for national security to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
However, this does raise a number of major issues that the United States has not yet addressed, Cordesman pointed out, saying Washington would have to decide whether or not to react to Beijing's actions by deploying a more robust NMD system and theater missile defenses.
Some US experts feel that the threat from mainland China may ultimately be more serious than any threat from such nations as Iran, Iraq and North Korea, and that the United States has made a major mistake in not designing its NMD system to defend against mainland China.
At the same time, this would mean engaging in a new arms race with mainland China, create major new problems for the United States in dealing with Russia and arms control, and require a much more sophisticated and costly NMD system than the one Washington is now contemplating.
It is important to note, however, that much depends on mainland Chinese perceptions of the United States and the seriousness of a potential clash over Taiwan, said Cordesman. Furthermore, Beijing might also take a more subtle path to objecting to the US deployment of an NMD system and retaliate by increasing the flow of missile-related expertise, technology and equipment to states hostile to the United States.
The January 2000 report by the Director of Central Intelligence makes this clear, as does the fact that mainland Chinese companies have not halted sales of weapons technology to potential aggressor states, wrote the former State and Defense Departments official.
As in the case of Russia, Cordesman stated, it is possible that the United States may be able to negotiate some kind of ceiling on Beijing's strategic forces in response for clear limits to a US NMD system. Unlike Russia, however, mainland China sees a serious prospect for military confrontation with the United States over issues like the Taiwan Strait. (By Nelson Chung)
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