Washington, Aug. 29 (CNA) In the absence of any constructive moves by mainland China to decrease its missile threat, the United States should assist Taiwan to develop the component elements of a Theater Missile Defense that best suits the island's security needs, an American expert on Asia has emphasized.
Andrew Scobell, Asia expert at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, made the statement in a recent report titled "Chinese Army Building in the Era of Jiang Zemin."
In the meantime, Scobell wrote, it is vital for the United States to recognize mainland China's sensitivity to TMD. It would be foolhardy -- indeed, dangerous -- not to take the Chinese threats seriously, he warned. "We must take every opportunity to remind China about the destabilizing and threatening effect of the recent missile buildup it has undertaken in the Taiwan Straits," he said.
But he also urged Beijing to be sensitive to Taiwan's security worries. "China should recognize that it is only natural with such a proximate and growing threat that Taiwan would want to improve its missile defense. Moreover, if Beijing wants to prevent Taipei from deploying TMD, it should ask itself what steps China could take to eliminate or minimize Taiwan's desire for such a system," he pointed out.
Scobell said it is likely that Communist China's defense establishment will strengthen over time. However, rather than obsessively focusing on the emergence of a more powerful threat, mainland China's neighbors and the United States should pay more attention to the strategic implications of a weak Communist leadership.
"Indeed, China today is not as powerful or as a significant player as it is often made out to be. And there is the possibility that China might become weaker militarily and economically and perhaps evolve into a looser federal system or in a more extreme case, even to fragment," he stressed.
"While the possibility may be low, it cannot be completely ruled out, and this eventuality must be seriously considered as a future scenario. The dangers of not contemplating the unthinkable are evident when one recalls that few analysts in the 1980s anticipated or even entertained the possibility of a Soviet collapse," he wrote.
Although arguing that Communist China will not succeed in becoming a military world power during the next 10-15 years, the analyst said this does not mean that he believes that mainland China doesn't pose threat to the Asia-Pacific region. "Indeed, the widely-held conviction that the PLA poses a modest or nuisance threat gives rise to a dangerous tendency to downplay or dismiss the very real threat China's military presents," he emphasized.
Despite assurances that Beijing will be too preoccupied with domestic matters to have time to get involved in foreign military adventures, it should be remembered that leaders in Beijing seem particularly prone to perceiving foreign threats if the mainland is beset by domestic upheaval, he noted.
That is especially if Beijing concludes that there is "collaboration" between internal and external forces as in the case of the popular pro-democracy protests of Spring 1989, Scobell said. It is precisely at these moments when Beijing is likely to lash out, in order to demonstrate to its enemies that it remains vigilant and prepared, he added.
However, Scobell said, rather than fear a highly-capable PLA winning stunning victories, the militaries of the Asia-Pacific region should be more concerned about the prospects of spectacular failure for the mainland's armed forces.
"The most plausible scenario is Taiwan. Failure on a grand scale can come about either if China's leaders mistakenly believe the PLA can win in a specific scenario and so proceed to launch an attack, or if Beijing believes it is unlikely to win but has no choice but to go ahead and attack anyway," he said.
Either way, the results of a failed PRC military strike may be worse than victory, particularly in the case of action in the Taiwan Strait, Scobell said. This is because where Taiwan is involved, Beijing is unlikely to admit defeat and desist, he said.
If the PLA is vanquished on the battlefield Communist China is likely to persist in its quest, and Beijing will seek to rebuild its military might in order to ensure success the next time, the US expert predicted. Thus, defeat will probably prolong and heighten tensions in the region, rather than clear the air, he said.
Scobell warned that such a PLA defeat might very well spark a serious regional arms race, as mainland China's neighbors would perceive an increasingly threatening security environment.
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