Washington, Aug. 24 (CNA) It makes a great deal of sense for the United States to maintain its "one China" policy, because it reduces the possibility of war across the Taiwan Strait, compels PRC modernization and democratization, and buys time without endangering Taiwan, claimed an American defense expert Thursday.
Nicholas Berry, senior analyst at the Washington-based Center for Defense Information, wrote in a commentary that "one doesn't have to be a devotee of Beijing to realize the one-China policy serves American interests and, over the long term, serves the interests of Taiwan and even the mainland Chinese."
He pointed out that understanding how the one-China policy affects the policies of Beijing and Taipei confirms its usefulness:
-- Reduces possibility of war. Virtually no analyst believes that the PRC leaders are not serious when they talk about the necessity of territorial integrity. And the fact that national unification is a deeply cherished dream by virtually all mainland Chinese is widely recognized. People's Liberation Army leaders are extremely patriotic, fiercely supportive of unification, and deeply suspicious of foreign meddling what they regard as "China's internal affairs."
President Lee Teng-hui's 1995 pro-independence speech at his alma matter, Cornell University, mobilized PLA officers to press Beijing's political leadership to hold military exercises off Taiwan's coast. "Quite simply, Taiwan independence means war. No government in Beijing could tolerate the permanent division of China. Peace, therefore, depends on maintaining the one-China principle which the US one-China policy supports," wrote Berry.
-- Compels PRC modernization and democratization. As long as the one-China principle is maintained, the PRC is obliged to pave the way towards reunification by becoming more like Taiwan.
"The PRC's systems are the ones undergoing fundamental change. Mainland leaders may not want democracy, but creating a vibrant economy balloons the middle class that does want more freedoms and participation in public policy. The closer the mainland's economy and political system approach Taiwan's, the faster reunification will occur. The one-China principle backed by the US one-China policy puts the burden on Beijing to modernize," argued Berry.
-- Paves the way for cross-strait exchanges. As long as the United States maintains the one-China principle as the basis of its overall China policy, Taipei will not go off on its own and challenge Beijing with a declaration of independence. Alone, Taiwan's prospects in a long-term conflict with the mainland are not good.
Instead, Berry said, "by not challenging the one-China principle (while not surrendering by accepting that Beijing is the only government for all of China), Taiwan opens the way for greater direct trade, communications and transportation with the mainland. This will help China modernize, sustain progressive leadership in Beijing, break down emotional barriers across the Taiwan Strait, and increase the cost if Beijing considers taking military action against Taiwan."
-- Buys time without endangering Taiwan. Taiwan has de facto autonomy now, and its democracy and economy are well established. "Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has reasonably stated that the Taiwanese people would have to approve reunification. Current trends are favorable for increasing the convergence of the two societies. Why disturb the status quo?" asked Berry. (By Nelson Chung)
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