Washington, June 12 (CNA) Rather than include Taiwan in a region-wide Theater Missile Defense system, the United States could continue to provide the island with "low-tier" missile defense technology, including upgraded Patriot missiles and early warning radar, while giving it additional protection via sea-based TMD on American warships, according to an American Asia expert.
Greg May, assistant director of the Washington-based Nixon Center, wrote in a recent analysis that Beijing's opposition to missile defense must be studied in the context of China's glaring vulnerability. Unlike Russia, which has more than enough missiles to overwhelm a limited American national missile defense system, China only has around 20 ICBMs, all are DF-5s capable of hitting North America but take several hours to prepare for flight.
In the event of a preemptive nuclear strike, "China would be lucky to get any of its DF-5s in the air. When an NMD system is added to the mix, China worries that even its minimal deterrent capability will be rendered invalid," noted May.
In addition, he said, "China believes American missile defense programs will harm its regional interests. Beijing worries that a US-led TMD effort will expand America's influence in East Asia and blunt China's short- and intermediate- range ballistic missiles, which China uses to compensate for its poor navy and air force," he said.
"Most importantly, Beijing fears TMD extension to Taiwan would create a de facto alliance between Taipei, Washington and Tokyo that would destroy any chance of China-Taiwan reunification," he noted.
None of this is to say that missile defense is a bad idea simply because China dislikes it. "China cannot dictate US decisions and it is ridiculous to suggest, as Beijing often does, that America has an obligation to leave itself and its allies completely vulnerable to missile strikes. However, the US would be foolish to totally ignore China's concerns, thus insuring maximum damage to US-China relations," added May.
One of the key factors that will determine whether the US can pursue missile defense while avoiding a new Cold War with China will be whether the US extends TMD to Taiwan, he wrote.
Taiwan wants to join a TMD system as a way of boosting its security ties with the United States and Japan. "But given Taiwan's proximity to China, a costly TMD system capable of intercepting missiles at very high altitudes does not necessarily make military sense," he pointed out.
"South Korea has opted out of TMD due to similar cost-benefit concerns. Rather than officially include Taiwan in a region-wide TMD effort, the US could continue to provide Taiwan with `low-tier' missile defense technology.....while giving it additional cover via sea-based TMD on American warships," emphasized May. (By Nelson Chung)
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