Taipei, May 30 (CNA) A senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official predicted on Tuesday that no conflict will erupt between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait at least before next May.
Liu Chih-kung, director of the MOFA's North American Affairs Department, made the optimistic forecast at a seminar on how to forge triangular Taipei-Washington-Beijing relations based on the principle of ensuring national security.
Liu said he has based his optimistic forecast on several factors. First of all, he said, the Republic of China's new government has adopted a prudent, conciliatory attitude toward mainland China. "As a result, fresh signs for resumption of cross-strait dialogue have appeared on the horizon," he noted.
Liu also cited other major factors that may discourage Beijing from adopting radical or extremist action as follows:
-- Mainland China is scheduled to hold a high-level meeting at the summer resort of Bedaihe on the outskirts of Beijing in August to chart its new policy toward Taiwan;
-- The World Trade Organization will make final reviews of mainland China's membership bid in the second half of this year;
-- The US Congress will vote on the Taiwan Security Enhancement Bill later this year; if Beijing takes action against Taiwan, the US Congress may pass the bill, a development that Beijing would not like to see;
-- The United States will hold presidential election in November and its new policies toward Taiwan and the mainland will not be set until after its new government is inaugurated next January.
"Under these circumstances, mainland China is not expected to take any drastic means against Taiwan. Therefore, I think that a cross-strait conflict is unlikely to break out at least before next May," Liu said.
He further predicted that during the one-year "grace period," US government officials, scholars and experts will play a more active role and shuttle between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to seek possible solution to cross-strait disputes and push for resumption of their long-stalled dialogue.
Speaking on the same occasion, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman Lin Chong-pin said both good and bad omens exist in the current cross-strait situation, but he added that encouraging signs generally outnumber ill omens. "Therefore, cross-strait tension may gradually ease," he concluded optimistically.
Nevertheless, Lin pointed out that mainland China holds the key to cross-strait relations and that its attitude toward Taiwan hinges on its internal political situation and high-level power struggles. Consequently, Lin said, the development of cross-strait relations involve many very complicated elements.
Professor Lin Yu-fang of Tamkang University also expressed cautious optimism about cross-strait ties. Noting that cross-strait relations have basically been deadlocked, Lin said no drastic changes to the current cross-strait logjam are likely in the short term. (By Sofia Wu)
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