Taipei, April 26 (CNA) If mainland China were to launch an attack on Taiwan, the mainland economy might regress 20 years and its leaders would face pressure to step down, a senior mainland affairs official said on Wednesday.
Lin Chon-pin, vice chairman of the Cabinet-level Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), made the remarks at a public hearing on the Taiwan Strait situation in the wake of the Republic of China's March 18 presidential election.
Lin said President-elect Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has shown a great deal of goodwill to mainland China since his election as the ROC's next leader, adding: "Chen's olive branches to Beijing have almost reached breaking point."
Commenting on a Ministry of National Defense report that mainland China's air force and navy have stepped up training drills along its southeastern coast opposite Taiwan in a possible attempt to launch a new round of saber-rattling against the island to coincide with Chen's May 20 inauguration, Lin said there is still not enough evidence to prove that the mainland will attack Taiwan in the near future.
Lin said mainland China's action toward Taiwan mainly hinges on three factors -- mainland China's domestic situation, the United States' attitude, and Taiwan's action, in descending order.
He pointed out that Beijing has toned down its bellicose rhetoric against Taiwan since March 18. "This mainly reflects that mainland China is conducting an internal review and adjustment as the island's presidential result has made Beijing leaders aware that there is a gap between their understanding of Taiwan and the reality on the island."
Lin went on to say that the United States is now more active and definite in handling Taiwan Strait issues than it was between 1995 and 1996, the last time Beijing conducted large-scale and live-fire war games designed to intimidate Taiwan.
"The US government now believes that it must spell out its opposition to mainland China's use of force against Taiwan," Lin said, adding that recent frequent visits to both sides of the Taiwan Strait by incumbent and retired US officials have been mainly aimed at discouraging Beijing from taking excessive action against Taiwan.
As for mainland China's domestic situation, Lin said the mainland has been in the grip of an economic recession since October 1998 that has aggravated social unrest and has led to factional strife among mainland leaders.
Lin said while some hawkish mainland leaders, mainly military brass, favor using force to unify Taiwan, other officials prefer to squeeze Taiwan's diplomatic frontiers and suppress its presence in the world arena.
At the moment, Lin said, several other factors would restrict mainland China from launching a military attack on Taiwan, including its inability to seize Taiwan rapidly, possible US intervention, regression of its economic development by about 20 years, decline in national tax revenues, sharp increase in unemployment and possible downfall of the current mainland leadership.
Against this background, Lin urged mainland leaders to stop their bluster against Taiwan and make a positive response to Chen's olive branches. (By Sofia Wu)
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