Ottawa, March 26 (CNA) If Kashmir is the world's most dangerous place, as US President Bill Clinton said last week in India, then the narrow Taiwan Strait ranks as No. 2 on the list, a Canadian newspaper said Sunday.
Beijing has been thundering that it will attack Taiwan if the island's newly elected government makes any moves toward declaring independence, wrote Eric Margolis in the Toronto Sun.
Communist China still lacks the amphibious capability and long-range aircraft needed to mount a successful invasion of Taiwan, though it could take the offshore islands of Matsu and Quemoy. But Taiwan's well-trained 240,000-man army, with 300,000-500,000 effective reserves, is dug in behind belts of fortifications with interlocking fields of fire, large numbers of heavy guns and batteries of Israeli-supplied anti-ship missiles, the columnist said.
Half of Taiwan is flat but densely urbanized and covered with factories, while the rest is wooded mountains. Both are ideal for defensive warfare. China would need to transport 600,000-800,000 men and their equipment across the 90-mile Taiwan Strait, a force larger than the initial 1944 D-Day landings in Normandy. Chinese losses would be enormous, said Margolis.
No matter, it seems. In the 1979 border war with Vietnam, China showed a shocking profligacy with its soldiers' lives, suffering over 70,000 casualties in 30 days of fighting. Chinese generals shrugged off these staggering losses as "acceptable." China would probably be similarly unconcerned about heavy casualties in invading Taiwan, Margolis pointed out, adding that Beijing's problem is not men, but lack of sea lift, logistics and air support.
Taiwan's 16 destroyers, 21 frigates and fast attack craft would inflict severe damage on an invading fleet. However, Taiwan has only two modern submarines. The air force's 60 Mirage 2000-5s and 150 F-16s would chew up squadrons of China's obsolescent combat aircraft, at least until overwhelming numbers, combat attrition and saturation bombardment by 800 Chinese M-11 missiles neutralized Taiwan's air bases, he said.
If the US 7th Fleet's two aircraft carrier battle groups intervened, China's invasion armada of troop transports, trawlers and junks would be turned into what the US Navy calls "a million-man swim," he added.
He pointed out that China is moving fast to counter this threat with 50 Russian-supplied SU-27 long-range fighters (with another 200 on order) and Kilo-class submarines. China is also struggling to develop nuclear subs and more deadly anti-ship missiles, and has recently acquired two "Sovremenny"-class destroyers from Russia armed with long-range SSN-23 missiles designed to attack aircraft carriers.
Moreover, Margolis noted that in the event of a clash over Taiwan, China has reportedly made a deal with North Korea to demonstrate along the DMZ - or even attack South Korea - to draw US reaction forces and carrier battle groups northward.
He noted however that China need not necessarily invade Taiwan to bring it to its knees, saying that a blockade could prove almost as effective, and far less costly.
Margolis pointed to a scenario where China proclaims a maritime and air blockade of export commerce dependent Taiwan, enforced by 60 Chinese attack submarines and surface units.
The blockade would likely quickly lead to Taiwan's industry grinding to a halt, mass layoffs, and shortages of food and fuel.
The international economy would also be seriously affected as Taiwan produces 67 percent of the world's supply of microchips and many electronic components.
Margolis says this would leave the US with three ugly choices. Either accept Beijing's embargo and Taiwan's inevitable surrender, place US flags on tankers and freighters headed into Taiwanese ports and pray they aren't torpedoed or strike mines, or order the 7th Fleet to break the blockade by mine sweeping and hunting Chinese subs.
This would, of course, mean a naval and air war with China at the very least, he noted. (By S.C. CHANG)
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