NEW York, March 25 (CNA) Beijing is likely to "create some crises" to test the new Taiwan president's possible reaction after he assumes office on May 20, Columbia University professor Andrew Nathan predicted on Saturday.
Nathan, who had traveled to Taiwan to observe the Republic of China's March 18 presidential election, made the remarks at a seminar on the island's post-election developments, with particular emphasis on its relations with mainland China.
In last Saturday's vote, Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) captured the presidency in a victory that marks an end to the Kuomintang's 54-year grip on power and the first peaceful transition of power from a ruling party in Taiwan.
In the eyes of Beijing's leaders, Nathan said, Chen will be a "weak president" because of a combination of factors, including the fact that Chen secured only 39.3 percent of the vote and that his party neither controls a majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan nor has a deep pool of talent and experience in government administration.
Against this backdrop, Nathan said that he believes mainland China will very likely take certain actions or create some disturbances to test Chen's ability to handle contingencies.
By so doing, Nathan said, Beijing is seeking to understand the strengths or weaknesses of Chen's personal character, the determination of the people of Taiwan to fight against communist China, the Clinton administration's possible reaction and Taiwan armed forces' defense capability.
As Beijing is very suspicious of Chen's policy toward relations across the Taiwan Strait, Nathan suggested that Chen pick a moderate to head the new Cabinet.
The seminar, co-sponsored by the US-based Spring of Beijing magazine and the Association of Chinese Study at Princeton University, has brought together many Chinese affairs experts and exiled mainland Chinese dissidents to discuss the possible effects of Taiwan's recently concluded election.
The agenda of the two-day seminar includes possible political developments in Taiwan in the wake of the election, the impact of the election on cross-strait relations and Taipei-Washington-Beijing ties, correlation between the Taiwan election and mainland China's democratization, and other related topics.
Most mainland Chinese dissidents present at the seminar praised Taiwan's democratic achievements, but they also urged Taiwan not to promote Taiwan independence which they said would spell disaster for all Chinese people. The exiled mainland dissidents also urged Taiwan's people to help push for democratization in mainland China. Without a democratic Chinese mainland, they said, Taiwan's democracy and stability will be in jeopardy in the long run. The seminar will close on Sunday. (By K. C. Huang and Sofia Wu)
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