By Sofia Wu CNA Staff Writer
Taipei, March 17 (CNA) Taiwan will go to the polls on Saturday to directly elect the president of the Republic of China for the second time in the country's history.
Election fever has raged throughout the island for more than a year and will reach a climax tonight, with candidates making their last-ditch efforts on the campaign trail.
The race is seen as the most democratic and unpredictable in 5,000 years of Chinese history. In the first direct popular presidential election in 1996, Lee Teng-hui -- the National Assembly-elected incumbent of the Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party -- was never in danger of losing.
But due to a bitter split in the ruling party, which has ruled unopposed for 50 years, the outcome of Saturday's election remains uncertain, even at this final moment ahead of the vote.
The top three candidates -- KMT standard-bearer Lien Chan, opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee Chen Shui-bian and James Soong, an ex-KMT stalwart who is running as an independent -- are still running neck-and-neck after grueling, rough-and-tumble campaigns.
As the election has been surrounded by high drama and intrigue, and as public opinion polls are banned in the last 10 days of the campaign, predicting the result of the raucous three-way race is no easy task.
Professor Tsai Wei of National Chengchi University said on the eve of the vote that while Chen's support rating seems to have surged to new heights after Nobel laureate Lee Yuan-tseh threw his weight behind him earlier this week, it is unclear whether Lien or Soong is lying in second place.
Alarmed at the prospect of a victory for Chen, mainland Chinese officials, from Premier Zhu Rongji on down, have in the past few days bombarded Taiwan with blunt ultimatums to choose war or peace, in an apparent attempt to scare voters away from Chen. The 49-year-old former Taipei mayor is mainland China's least-liked candidate, as the party he represents has advocated Taiwan independence, although that aspect of its platform has been kept low-key of late.
Tsai said it is hard to know at this point how the latest Beijing threats will affect Chen's chances of winning, or the overall electoral outcome.
Given mainland China's frenzied nationalistic sentiments, Tsai said, local voters should not turn a deaf ear to Beijing's belligerent rhetoric and should think twice before making their ballot choices.
"You should vote with a cool head because your ballots will determine not only your own well-being but also the country's future destiny," Tsai urged.
Soochow University professor You Ying-lung, a major campaign strategist in the Chen camp, said that although the mainland premier's hardline bluster may sway some voters away from Chen, it has also drawn a backlash from many others.
"Zhu's moderate image has been tarnished by his bellicose threats against Taiwan on Wednesday. The influential Washington Post said in an editorial on Thursday that Zhu's harsh words have made him look like an Italian Mafia godfather," You said, adding that he is convinced that Beijing's recent rhetoric will have only limited impact on Chen's odds of winning.
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, a KMT stalwart, also said it remains to be seen which camp will benefit most from Zhu's bluster. "Zhu's talk is like a gust of wind, and its influence on the three camps will hinge on how the three contenders set their sails," Ma noted.
He further said that neither the ROC government nor its people can accept Beijing's interference in the country's presidential election. Nevertheless, Ma reminded voters that similar intimidation from Beijing will appear again in the future. "We should be prepared to withstand Beijing's bluster in the future if we want to be masters of our own country."
In fact, all three leading contenders have extended an olive branch across the Taiwan Strait, and all have presented roughly similar platforms on cross-strait ties and related issues. Lien, Soong and Ah-bian (Chen's nickname) have all expressed willingness if elected to visit the mainland or meet with mainland leaders on neutral ground to forge goodwill and mutual trust. They have all promised to take positive steps to boost cross-strait exchanges and cooperation.
Except for cross-strait relations, the campaign agenda also includes many other crucial problems that are plaguing Taiwan, such as crime, corruption, economic development and administrative reforms.
Nobel laureate Lee said in a recent speech that he has never felt so intensely the urgency of these issues. "I am deeply concerned about whether Taiwan will rise or fall."
Lee said he hopes the upcoming vote will usher in a new era of clean politics in Taiwan and lasting peace between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Some scholars and observers said the younger generation could turn the tide in this election. Official tallies show one quarter of Taiwan's electorate is under 30. These youths are looking for new leaders and an end to the corruption and boredom of KMT rule.
For young voters, the election is not about a standoff with mainland China, but about the eradication of organized crime and official corruption, as well as about personal charisma. That's probably why A-bian, the youngest of the five hopefuls running in the current race, has enjoyed the highest support rating among 20- and 30-somethings.
With the campaign entering final countdown, competition among the three front-runners has turned white hot. As Lien, incumbent vice president, and Soong, a former Taiwan governor, share similar political backgrounds, both from the KMT, their race has been utterly intense from the very beginning.
Both Lien's and Soong's grassroots campaign offices have resorted to the last-ditch "dump-save" tactics -- also referred to as strategic voting -- where voters cast their ballots for their second favored candidate to ensure a third candidate does not win.
A spokesman for A-bian's Taichung County campaign headquarters said the two rival camps' "dump-save" appeals reflect their lack of confidence in their chances of victory and the DPP's increased probability of gripping the presidency.
Kuo Yen-sheng, head of Soong's campaign office in Taichung City, said the recent domestic stock market crash, Nobel laureate Lee's throwing support behind A-bian and Beijing's bluster are the three key catalysts for the introduction of the "dump-save" tactics. Kuo said he doesn't think that Lien still has many resources to boost his odds of winning.
However, Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-pying, also head of Lien's national campaign headquarters, said the gap between Lien's and A-bian's support rating has narrowed and that Soong has lagged far behind in the race.
Political analysts said the Lien and Soong camps are fighting most vehemently in military dependents residential communities where their support bases largely overlap. In the past few says, the two camps have gone all-out in military residential communities in central and northern Taiwan to canvass votes.
A-bian's campaign offices in Hualien, Ilan and Kaohsiung counties said A-bian's support ratings in the areas are going up steadily. "Given A-bian's high support ratings in these regions, there is no room for rival camps to play the 'dump A-bian' card," said one of A-bian's campaign aides.
National Cheng-kung University professor Chang Chan-ho said as of Friday, there are still no signs of large-scale switch of allegiance among the three major rival camps.
Some analysts said many grassroots political factions, which have traditionally played a critical role in domestic elections, have put bets both on Lien and Soong, and even on all the three leading contenders as they are not sure who will be the real winner. "This is a phenomenon rarely seen in the past," said a KMT legislator from the Taipei County constituency and a Lien camp campaign strategist.
Generally speaking, grassroots political factions in central and southern Taiwan are more likely to play the "dump Lien and save A-bian" card, while appeals for "dumping Lien and saving Soong" are prevailing among grassroots political factions in northern Taiwan. Campaign strategists familiar with the domestic political culture said huge switch of allegiance among grassroots factions is most likely to take place in the final 10 hours. And the outcome of the vote will show whether the "dump-save" tactics works in this election.
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