Washington, Feb. 18 (CNA) The United States will intervene militarily under most circumstances to prevent a Communist Chinese defeat of Taiwan, because the security of Taiwan is linked to many US interests, including the maintenance of a favorable balance of power in the Western Pacific, said an American specialist in East Asian security affairs Friday.
Martin L. Lasater, an independent scholar affiliated with the Asian Pacific program of the Washington-based Atlantic Council, however, warned that the United States is unlikely to help defend Taiwan if political instability on Taiwan leads one side to invite Beijing's intervention, or if Taipei deliberately precipitates a crisis in the Taiwan Straits to gain US support for independence.
Other than military preparedness, Lasater stressed, the most important contribution Taiwan can make to its own security is political astuteness. "There is no reason to be unduly pessimistic about Taiwan's future, unless the Taiwanese people and their elected officials contribute to their society's demise by alienating both their enemies and their friends, while at the same time weakening the island's social cohesion."
With the world's attention once again focused on Taiwan because of the upcoming March 18 presidential election, there has been increased concern over the island's security.
In his 80-page detailed study on the probability of Communist China's use of force against Taiwan and the likely US response, Lasater has drawn the following conclusions:
-- China is willing to go to war over Taiwan, and Beijing is most likely to use force against the island if the latter seeks to become an independent nation-state separate from mainland China.
-- The United States probably will defend Taiwan. Beijing's increased power strengthens China's deterrence against American intervention, but US interests in preventing Chinese hegemony are more important than the risks to American forces.
-- US arms sales to Taiwan are critical and likely will continue. But as the People's Liberation Army modernizes and China exercises its growing national power, US arms sales in itself will be no guarantee of Taiwan's security.
-- The security of Taiwan is of international strategic concern, since Taiwan's geostrategic importance has increased, not decreased, as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.
-- PRC missiles pose the greatest threat to Taiwan, since they may suffice to break the will of the Taiwanese people, thus making the development of an effective local missile defense system one of the priorities for Taiwan.
-- Taiwan will benefit from Theater Missile Defense, but its overall security will become more dependent on external factors in the early 21st century.
Lasater, former professor at Pennsylvania State University, the US Naval War College and National Chengchi University in Taipei, said the ability of Communist China to produce large numbers of guided missiles and to acquire state-of-the-art conventional offensive weaponry from Russia and other sources means that Taiwan's narrow technological advantage over the PRC will likely be overwhelmed in five to ten years. At that time, in the absence of US intervention, Taiwan would likely be defeated by a determined PLA attack.
The national and military strategies of the Republic of China are evolving, but they have not yet solved the problem of long-term survival, Lasater noted.
"Due to the nature of the modern PRC threat to Taiwan -- unrelenting political confrontation and preparation for attack, the ROC must continually review and adjust its national strategy and its military strategy. Unfortunately, the restrictions under which Taiwan must operate make an effective defensive strategy difficult to conceptualize and implement," he wrote.
In his view, there is no peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue in sight and the political situation is fluid, but the election of a new president in the ROC in March 2000 may usher in a period of possible political movement on the Taiwan issue in both Beijing and Taipei. (By Nelson Chung)
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